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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Silver Heading for Higher Highs After Current Correction Ends

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Jun 15, 2009 - 02:39 PM GMT

By: Roland_Watson

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA week or so ago we gave the short term view of silver that a decent sized top was in. Our first choice Elliott wave pattern (see below) looked complete as you can see from the chart we reproduce below. We had an alternate wave count which would be invalidated if it went below $14.80. That has now happened so the first choice count is vindicated.


The new situation is shown below and the question naturally is what are we correcting here? The impulse wave which ran from mid April to early June is either wave 1 of a bigger impulse wave or it is a sub wave of a corrective wave which we call "A" here. Obviously being only wave 1 of 5 in a larger impulse would send silver well above the $21 highs of last year but we do not think that is the case for now. The depth of the current correction will answer that question in due course. I have an idea where this drop may end up but I am sure it is the prelude to higher highs (larger correction or not - just not as great as a mega impulse wave).

From a purely Fibonacci point of view (not the only tool we rely on thankfully), the 50% retracement is at $13.91 - we have seen as low as $14.05 so far. The 38% retrace was taken out at $14.40.

After this correction ends it is one final push up and then into a final multi-month correction phase.

By Richard Shaw 
http://www.qvmgroup.com

Richard Shaw leads the QVM team as President of QVM Group. Richard has extensive investment industry experience including serving on the board of directors of two large investment management companies, including Aberdeen Asset Management (listed London Stock Exchange) and as a charter investor and director of Lending Tree ( download short professional profile ). He provides portfolio design and management services to individual and corporate clients. He also edits the QVM investment blog. His writings are generally republished by SeekingAlpha and Reuters and are linked to sites such as Kiplinger and Yahoo Finance and other sites. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.

Copyright 2006-2009 by QVM Group LLC All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

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