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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Some Commodity Related Securities Outpacing Gold 15:1 YTD

Commodities / Options & Warrants Jul 29, 2009 - 05:09 PM GMT

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhere should we be investing what is left of our hard earned money these days? As the table below reveals having bought a basket of commodity related warrants with a minimum duration of at least 24 months at the beginning of 2009 would have been the right choice. Such warrants are up 111.9% YTD, up 12.8% in the past month and up 11.7% in just the last week. That is 14.7 times greater than the 7.6% YTD increase in gold, 13.3 times greater than the 8.4% increase in the S&P 500, 5.8 times greater than the 19.4% increase in the HUI and 4.8 times greater than the 23% YTD increase in silver.


* All calculations are based on U.S. dollar equivalent numbers
** Week ending July 24th, 2009

***CDNX is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index consisting of 558 micro/nano cap companies of which 44% are engaged in the mining, exploration and/or development of gold and/or silver and other mineral resources and 18% in oil or natural gas pursuits.
****HUI is the symbol of the AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Un-hedged Gold Stocks) Index and is a modified equal dollar-weighted index of 15 large/mid cap gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold beyond 1.5 years.
*****GDM is the symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and is a modified market capitalization weighted index of 31 large/mid/small cap gold and silver mining companies.
******SPTGD is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and is a modified market capitalization index of 19 large/mid cap precious metals mining companies.

Most people think of warrants (i.e. securities that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase common shares of a company at a specific price within a specific time period) as being associated primarily with micro/nano cap junior gold and silver mining companies but that is not entirely the case. Of the 35 companies offering warrants of 24 or more months duration (of which there are 48 in total):

  • 6 are large-cap commodity based companies (2 gold mining companies; 2 royalty companies; 1 oil and gas company; and 1 molybdenum miner)
  • 5 are small/mid-cap mining companies (2 gold, 1 coal, 1 uranium) and 1 oil and gas producer
  • 24 are micro/nano cap companies of which 19 are in mining; 3 in merchant banking and 2 in oil and gas. They are primarily involved in the development of properties for mining/drilling and/or in the exploration phase of operations.

Investors who are interested in the considerable over-and-above returns that certain warrants can generate compared to investing in the company stock itself should become personally involved in the selection process. Firstly, they should undertake their own due diligence in determining which of the commodity related stocks with long-term warrants have, in their opinion, the most outstanding future stock price appreciation prospects. They should then determine which warrants of these selected companies have the most favourable leverage possibilities given the duration periods of the warrants being considered. The best way to make this all-important decision would be to make use of the services of preciousmetalswarrants.com. Only then would they be sufficiently informed to invest in an astute and prudent manner. To learn more about warrants as an investment please visit our site for detailed information, sign up for our free weekly newsletter and subscribe to one of our several one-of-a-kind services.

If you believe, as suggested by the outstanding YTD performance of commodity related stocks with long-term warrants, that:

  • major inflation is coming in the years ahead (I do),
  • the USD is going to decline vis-à-vis other currencies in the years to come (I do),
  • the bull run in gold, silver and other commodities has many more years to go (I do),
  • the profitability of commodity-related companies are going to increase as a result (I do),
  • the price of most commodity-related stocks are then going to increase dramatically (I do),
  • many of the junior miners/explorers will be bought out by the majors in the future (I do),
  • that the worst of the economic/fiscal/financial crisis is yet to engulf us (I do),

then you should prepare your portfolio to reflect these coming events.

One of the best ways to accomplish that objective would be to included a diversified selection of well-chosen high leverage/time value warrants (approx. 5-10% of your portfolio) along with some other commodity-related stocks and some silver and gold bullion during this period of summer doldrums. You will then be well prepared to ride out whatever financial/economic storm is around the corner.

Please feel free to contact me at the address below with your comments and questions. I guarantee you a rely where requested.

Disclosure: While no specific companies or funds are mentioned in this article I do own commodity-based stocks, warrants, gold and silver.

Lorimer Wilson (lorimer.wilson@live.com) is Director of Marketing and Contributing Editor of:

  • www.PreciousMetalsWarrants.com which provides an online subscription database for all warrants trading on mining and other natural resource companies in the United States and Canada and offers a free weekly email and
  •   www.InsidersInsights.com which alerts subscribers when corporate insiders of a limited number of junior mining and natural resource companies are buying and selling.

© 2009 Copyright Lorimer Wilson- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Lorimer Wilson Archive

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