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U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Financial Markets 50 Year Roller Coaster Ride Insights

InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade Oct 19, 2009 - 01:06 PM GMT

By: Charles_Maley

InvestorEducation

Richard Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.


Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron's during the late '50s through the '90s. Through Barron's and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-'66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-'74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974. Here are a few of his recent insights from the Dow Theory Letters.

ON THE DOLLAR

“It's clear (at least to me) that Obama is following the path Roosevelt took during the Great Depression.

In 1933, the government devalued the dollar by 41% by raising the official price of gold from $20.67 to $35 an ounce. Devaluation makes debt easier to handle. In devaluation, the dollar value of debt remains the same, but all other assets would be worth more (in nominal terms) whether it was a house, a stock, a car or an ounce of gold.

How our creditors who own trillions of dollars in their reserves will react to dollar devaluation I really don't know, but a devalued dollar is a lot better than nothing. The Bernanke Fed is trying desperately to bring back inflation, and devaluing the dollar is the surest and quickest way to inflate.”

ON THE STOCK MARKET

“We tend to forget that every move, large or small, in the stock market is entitled to a correction. I believe that the rise from the March lows is simply a correction of the huge bear market decline which preceded it.

Normally, a secondary correction will recoup one-third to two-thirds of the ground lost during the preceding bear leg. To refresh your memory, the preceding bear leg carried from 14164.58 on October 9, 2007 to 6547.05 on March 9, 2009 -- a total loss of 7617 points. A one-third correction would carry the Dow to 9083. A two-thirds recoup of the bear market losses could take the Dow back to 11619.

Subscribers should know that following the famous 1929 crash which took the Dow from 381 to 198, a correction took the Dow back to 294 in early 1930. That correction turned the entire investment community bullish. The public piled back into the market. However, the correction had nothing to do with an improving economy. In fact, the great 1929-1930 correction was followed by the greatest market wipe-out and economic depression in history.”

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Charles Maley
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
Charles has been in the financial arena since 1980. Charles is a Partner of Angus Jackson Partners, Inc. where he is currently building a track record trading the concepts that has taken thirty years to learn. He uses multiple trading systems to trade over 65 markets with multiple risk management strategies. More importantly he manages the programs in the “Real World”, adjusting for the surprises of inevitable change and random events. Charles keeps a Blog on the concepts, observations, and intuitions that can help all traders become better traders.


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