Stocks Bull Market Swing Juncture?
Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Nov 15, 2009 - 12:41 AMBy: Nadeem_Walayat
In Britain the big story of the week was concerning Gordon Browns spelling mistakes riddled condolence letter to the mother of a soldier killed in Afghanistan which was publicised vocally by the Sun newspaper and Sky News. However the real story behind this is the brewing war between the mainstream media represented by the likes of Rupert Murdoch's News International and the internet represented by Google which allows access to a near infinite alternative sources of information.
The Mainstream media wants laws to restrict the free information market and thus by electioneering on behalf of the Conservative Party, News International is seeking favourable policies on both the state media and internet new media especially in advance of charging a fee for their currently free online content.
However at the end of the day this is a battle that the mainstream press cannot win as the New Media increasingly becomes more sophisticated which in many cases is already delivering better quality of content then the so called premium content pumped out by the mainstream press which usually tends to be a regurgitation of press releases as the analysis of Telegraphs coverage of UK house prices illustrates.
Financial Market Trends and Forecasts Update
November 1st's in depth analysis (Stocks, Dollar and Gold Bull Markets Inter-market Analysis) gave updated projections for key markets into the end of 2009 and early 2010 as summarised below:
Gold Targeting $1200 by March 2010 : $1,119 ($1,046) + 7%
Gold is performing strongly. The Bull scenario remains in tact though a near term correction targeting $1060 seems likely.
Dow Targeting 10,350 to 10,500 During December 2009 :10,270 (9,712) + 5.7%
Stocks continued their rally at the start of the week, with the S&P joining the Dow by busting the bear calls emanating form the October highs and achieving a Dow high for the week at 10,342, a touch away from the target zone.
Using mid prices of the target ranges gives a potential of +155 (10425) to the upside against -720 (9550) to the downside, therefore the potential risk far out weighs the reward as the quick analysis concluded following Mondays close, therefore for traders who are long it would be wise to bank profits, pending outcome of what looks like an imminent correction. Remember trading is risk/reward game, where the reward must always outweigh the risk to win in the long-run.
Looking wider a field, I see a series of international indices putting in a lower low during early November and now implying a lower high as well, this strengthens the view that 10,342 as a high potential of being a swing juncture and confirms long positions under these circumstances are risky and do require an immediate resumption in the up-trend to clear nearby buy triggers.
Dow Trading - The nearest SELL trigger is at 10160. The nearest confirming BUY triggers are at 10,310 and then importantly at 10,345. As mentioned earlier upside looks very limited where 10,345 would target 10,425 to 10,500. On the short side 10,160 first targeting 9950 to 9900.
USD Targeting 84 during December 2009 : 75.23 (76.36) - 1.5%
The U.S. Dollar scenario remains on life support. The previously stated buy trigger of 77.50 remains unfilled. Now a nearer Buy trigger at 77.00 has been generated by recent price action.
How did Robert Prechter's 2009 Forecasts Perform ?
My recent article on Nouriel Roubini's 2009 track record resulted in a number of emails asking me to take a look at other popular analysts. However it is not something that I want to get into as Nouriel Roubini was a one off exercise for an example of why it is dangerous to have a perma-view in denial of the actual facts as observed in the market price action.
However, back in April 09 Robert Prechter made available virtually all of his key forecasts and analysis for 2009 for multiple markets in a 120 page ebook titled Global Market Perspective. The ebook is apparently STILL available! Which enables readers to make up their own minds against what has subsequently transpired during the past 6 months.
How to download the forecasts ebook
1. New users of EWI services, Register your email address on the ebook page (IGNORE THE DEADLINE DATE),
2. New and existing members now go to the ebook page and on the right hand side is the link Already a Club EWI Member? - Which will automatically download the ebook (I have tested this many, many times and it does work!).
Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15058.html
Your stock index analyst.
By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Featured Analysis of the Week
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :
| 1. Gld ETF Warning, Tungsten Filled Fake Gold Bars |
By: Rob_Kirby
“Gold Finger - A New Take On Operation Grand Slam With A Tungsten Twist”
I’ve already reported on irregular physical gold settlements which occurred in London, England back in the first week of October, 2009. Specifically, these settlements involved the intermediation of at least one Central Bank [The Bank of England] to resolve allocated settlements on behalf of J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank – who DID NOT have the gold bullion that they had sold short and were contracted to deliver. At the same time I reported on two other unusual occurrences:
| 2. Don't Fool Yourself: America Is Now a Communist Nation |
By: DailyWealth
At last year's Alliance Conference, I urged folks to buy stocks – vehemently... It was the most bullish I've been in my entire life. But now I feel the opposite way. When the facts change, I change my mind. I never thought we'd see the government running $2 trillion deficits, taking over health care, owning all the banks...
| 3. Stock Market Top Likely Reached |
By: Peter_Navarro
Last week, I called a market top; and the Dow Jones industrial average proceeded to reel off a 3.2% gain. There are a couple of important observations to make about this market action.
First, the tape never lies so it's important to be flexible when the market moves in the direction that you do not expect. While I entered last week slightly net short, I had a trailing stop loss on my major short position TWM and as the market rallied, I was able to close that short position and still preserve some my profits from the preceding week.
| 4. If the Gold Price Explodes, Silver Will go SuperNova! |
By: Jeff_Clark
How Will Niagara Falls Fit Through a Garden Hose?
“There’s no doubt in my mind that we’ll have a mania in gold. And because the gold and especially silver markets are so tiny, the rush into them will be like trying to push the contents of Hoover Dam through a garden hose. Our positions will go absolutely ballistic.” –Doug
INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE
Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/ |
| 5. What Happened to the Stock Market Crash? |
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big news of the week was the U.S. unemployment rate breaking above 10% to the highest rate in 26 years with all the expectations of the jobless recovery continuing well into 2010. Other news out of the U.S. came from the Fed confirming the view that U.S. Interest rates would be kept low for sometime.
| 6. Why is the Stock Market Rising When The Economic Recovery is Weak? |
By: Paul McCulley
"Why" many ask, "is the stock market going up when the bond market is telling us the recovery will be tepid? Isn't there a disconnect?" And the answer is that there is, and this week good friend and fishing buddy Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame discusses that very topic with his usual insight and wit. He poses the conundrum that those expecting a "V" shaped recovery have pushed risk assets up quite high, and that the real risk to their position is that they in fact get a "V" shaped recovery. And yet, they could go higher and into bubble territory.
| 7. Global Leveraged Speculation Upsurge, Financial Crisis Not Over |
By: Bob_Chapman
Almost all the excessive hedge fund de-leveraging is over. Banks have continued to hold 40 to 1 leveraged positions, because they cannot exit them without a major economic recovery without going bankrupt. Our government remains trapped in the same old bubble mentality in its activist control banking and policymaking having issued $1.9 trillion in additional debt over the past year. Banks and government still do not see the warning signals. Any sane businessman who views the continued leverage being used by Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie and the FHA has to cringe in horror, as leverage increases daily without end.
| 8. Stocks Bull Market Destroys the Crash Bears Again |
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Seems like Déjà vu where virtually on every correction the mega perma-bears re-emerge to pronounce the demise of the bear market rally only to be beaten back down by the subsequent rally to a new high for the move as we witnessed today with the Dow closing above the previous mid October peak of 10,120, by closing at 10,226.
| Subscription |
You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website.
How to Subscribe
Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter
| About: The Market Oracle Newsletter |
The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2009MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055.
Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )
Comments
Post Comment (Moderated)