Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will You Make Money in the New Silver Bull Market ? - 13th Aug 20
Hyper-Deflation Capital Destruction And Gold & Silver - 13th Aug 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching - 13th Aug 20
Silver Took the Stairs to $21 in 2008, Took Escalator to $29 2010. Is Silver on Elevator to 120th floor today? - 13th Aug 20
President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets - 13th Aug 20
Has Gold's Upward Drive Come to an End? - 13th Aug 20
YouTuber Ads Revenue & How to Start a Career on YouTube - 13th Aug 20
Silver Notches Best Month Since 1979 - 12th Aug 20
Silver Shorts Get Squeezed Hard… What’s Next? - 12th Aug 20
A Tale of Two Precious Metal Bulls - 12th Aug 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Continues While Precious Metals Warn of Risks - 12th Aug 20
How Does the Gold Fit the Corona World? - 12th Aug 20
3 (free) ways to ride next big wave in EURUSD, USDJPY, gold, silver and more - 12th Aug 20
A Simple Way to Preserve Your Wealth Amid Uncertainty - 11th Aug 20
Precious Metals Complex Impulse Move : Where Is next Resistance? - 11th Aug 20
Gold Miners Junior Stcks Buying Spree - 11th Aug 20
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? - 10th Aug 20
The Strange Food Trend That’s Making Investors Rich - 10th Aug 20
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? - 10th Aug 20
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices - 10th Aug 20
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn - 10th Aug 20
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 - 10th Aug 20
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, - 10th Aug 20
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold Black Friday $80 Plunge Truth

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Dec 07, 2009 - 03:24 AM GMT

By: Howard_Katz

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWell people, it was a bad day on Friday.  Barchart reported that the Dec. gold contract went from 1227 at its Thursday high to 1147 at its Friday low – an eighty point difference in a single day.

And yet there be rumors floating through the dark alleys of the Comex that a certain advisory letter sent out a special bulletin interday on Dec. 2, with Dec. gold at 1208,advising its clients to sell their gold stocks.


Here at the One-handed Economist we can neither confirm nor deny those rumors.  It is our policy to restrict our public articles to those of an educational purpose.  To get the really good stuff, the exact timing on specific stocks and commodities, you must cross our palm with silver.  Alternatively, you may cross it with gold.  And as a special favor (because I am in a good mood this week), I will allow you to cross it with paper money.

I pray thee, do not regard this as a great burden.  In the larger scheme of things, it is a flea bite.  Let us keep things in context.  The year began with our Model Conservative Portfolio at $139,955 (on Jan. 2, 2009).  Here in December it closed this past week at $186,592.  That is a profit of 33%, with the year not yet finished.  In absolute amount, it is a profit of $46,639.  And for the knowledge of how to make this profit, you paid only $300.

Hmmm, perhaps I should convert the One-handed Economist to a specialty letter and charge $10,000 per year.  No, no, that would not be right.  One should have compassion for the poor.  And I do.  That is, I have compassion for those poor who want to get rich and are struggling mightily toward that goal.  Because of this I am going to tell you the secret to success in the financial markets.

THE SECRET TO SUCCESS IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IS TO KNOW THE TRUTH.

CHART OF TRUTH

Truth is the most valuable commodity in the universe, even more valuable than gold.  Just as we had a short squeeze in gold after Thanksgiving, so we have had a short squeeze in truth over the past year.  Never have the lies been so thick and fast.  All those who were short of truth (such as Paul Krugman) were run in and forced to cover, and they took horrific losses.  Now they will hide the truth and pretend that they are making money.

The One-handed Economist is planning to gain a monopoly of all the truth in the world.  We are planning this for the year 2020.  At that time, no one in the world will have any truth but us.  And if you want the truth, you will have to come to us and pay our price.

SPECIAL NOTICE

WE ARE OFFERING TO BUY ANY PIECE OF TRUTH YOU HAVE.  WE PAY TOP DOLLAR

TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS:  WE ASK YOU TO HOLD TIGHTLY TO ANY SMALL BITS OF TRUTH WHICH YOU HAVE PICKED UP IN THE COURSE OF YOUR SUBSCRIPTION.  DO NOT SELL UNTIL THE VERY LAST MOMENT, WHEN THE SHORTS ARE BEING RUN IN AND YOU CAN GET THE ABSOLUTELY HIGHEST PRICE.

SHYLOCK

URIAH HEAP

THE ONE-HANDED ECONOMIST

HA HA HA HA HA HA

Was it so hard to catch this week’s top in gold?  No, good technical analysis is not difficult to understand.  It is, however, precise.  Like a math problem you must get every step right to get the final answer.

The first thing you need to understand is that gold is a well behaved good.  Most commodities are mean and nasty – at least to the newcomer.  Each commodity has its own peculiarities.  And you have to trade it for a while and become familiar with these peculiarities before you can make money. 

The second thing to understand is that gold is very similar to a general commodity index.  Indeed, I prefer trading it to the CRB index.  We are in the second upswing of the commodity pendulum.  This means that commodities in general are on the rise.  If you knew that airlines were on the rise, you would prefer to buy a general airline index.  If you pick just one airline stock, you might have the bad luck to pick an underperforming stock.  And today we know that commodities are in a long term rise.  In this situation, gold is an even better play than the CRB.

The reason that gold is a better play technically, and this is our third point, is that it is technically well behaved.  In my technical discussions prior to gold’s break of $1,000, I pointed out that gold had formed a symmetrical triangle..  This broke to the upside in September, and at that time I drew the symmetrical triangle together with its price objective line.  This is a line from the upper left hand peak of the triangle parallel to its lower side.

This price objective line hit1160 at the end of November, and this was our first technical signal of a possible intermediate top in gold.  Such a price objective line does not necessarily signal a major top.  Often it merely signals an intermediate top.  And given the long term power that gold is showing this looks like an intermediate top to me.

Another nice signal came from the HUI, which formed a gravestone doji on Thursday.  A gravestone doji goes way up early in the day and then falls back toward the close of the day giving back virtually all of its gains.  Often this coincides with a high volume day on the Western chart.

The serious technician will read Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee.  This book requires study, but it is a powerful tool. It is a tribute to these two men that the patterns they identified a half century ago continue to work nicely here in the 21st century.

Candlestick patterns are also useful.  They were developed by a 17th century Japanese rice trader.  Candlesticks make use of the opening, high, low and closing prices, whereas Western (bar) charts use high, low, close and volume.  Steve Nissen is the acknowledged leader of candlestick charting here in America.

No chart pattern is perfect, and no chart pattern works all of the time.  For this reason, one must multiply probabilities.  For example, let us say that you are studying airline stocks.  Out of five stocks, 3 complete bullish chart patterns.  If each pattern has a 30% chance of failing, then the chance of all 3 failing is .3 x .3 x .3 = 2.7%.  Since the airline stocks will likely all move the same way, this means that you have a 97.3% chance of success.

I want to thank all you people who e-mail me and want to discuss the markets.  However, I am overwhelmed and do not have enough time for personal answers.  I have to confine myself to a general discussion here in these articles and specific recommendations in the One-handed Economist.

In this regard, let me remind you that the One-handed Economist is only $300 for 26 issues.  This is $11.50 per issue (with special bulletins thrown in for free).  When you consider the value I have created for subscribers, both over the past year and the past decade, it is an incredible bargain.

Frankly, part of the reason I write these letters is that I feel a sense of mission.  There is so much economic ignorance in the world and so much evil comes from it that I feel a sense of mission to explain economic truth.  All around we see politicians and pseudo-intellectuals tell us that they are going to give us something for nothing.  Yet (in the larger sense) something for nothing is impossible in this world.  And the motive of those who advocate it is to enslave us.  Sadly, for most of human history most of humanity have fallen for this lie and have remained slaves.  Only America and the British Commonwealth of the 17th-19th centuries constitute an exception.

The One-handed Economist helps you to see the economic truth on a personal level.  (I hope to have a new book in print this coming year which will deal with the same issue on a more philosophical level.  If you would like to subscribe, then please visit my web site, www.thegoldspeculator.com .  Or you may simply send a check to The One-handed Economist, 614 Nashua St. #122, Milford, N.H. 03055.  Also, you may visit my blog at www.thegoldspeculator.blogspot.com (no charge).  This week’s blog is “The True Story of Christmas.

© 2009 Copyright Howard S. Katz - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Tony N.
13 Dec 09, 13:03
Soros and the bullion banks have a coup readying

Subject: Soros needs the IMF sale for a different reason .......and why need to Audit the FED

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_caution_120220093 these 2 links show the short positions held

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/slv_etf_2.png

Why George Soros is after IMF gold

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Why-George-Soros-is-after-IMF-gold-23792-3-1.html

Soros needs the Gold Sale at the IMF to cause the price swing to cover his and bullion banks short positions that then can redirect capital flows in directions they will already have setup , that would have went towards safe haven investments once the pound caves in , and investors flee out of pound related stocks .

Then if they can get control of the feeder capital flows they can redirect it to their holdings in Pound related positions into dollar positions once the Pound gets down graded and investors flee Pound trades for dollar trades and salvage their pound positions in unions but it will take the IMF sale of their Gold to fund Climate change projects as a cover , for this trigger to enact the run out of gold and into dollar trades and create the vacuum Soros and Bank holding companies need to redirect their positions in gold shorts and currency trades ..... this link shows the hemorrhaging at play in pound currency denominations and whats at play for Soros and the gang to try for a redirect out of Gold related investments and into their feeder funds to fill this vacuum on pound devaluations coming ;

Pound’s Demise Will not be Hard to Time , as investors flee to dollars the hyper bubble on the dollar will cause massive problems for the dollar indexes....

http://www.forexblog.org/2009/12/pounds-demise-will-not-be-hard-to-time.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+forexblog%2FEOmh+(Forex+Blog

This is exactly why we need to Audit the FED as Ron Paul wants ;

Federal Reserve manipulating gold prices: Ron Paul

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Federal-Reserve-manipulating-gold-prices-Ron-Paul-23803-3-1.html


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules