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British Pound GBP Forecast 2010 Targets Drop to Below £/$1.40

Currencies / British Pound Dec 26, 2009 - 12:13 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of 2010 forecasts for inflation, interest rates and economy. I aim to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com


British Pound GBP Forecast 2010 Targets Drop to Below £/$1.40

The existing U.S. Dollar bull market scenario analysis calls for the Dollar to rally towards a target of 84, with the initial buy trigger of 77.00 achieved during the past few days this now sets the scene for sterling weakness against the Dollar, which has already seen the GBP nose dive from £/$1.68 to below £/$1.60. A U.S. Dollar index rally to 84 would coincide with a drop in sterling to below £/$ 1.50, therefore presents a bearish starting point for chart analysis.

Two items stand out from the GBP chart:

1. That sterling is targeting immediate support at £/$1.57 which implies it may temporarily bounce from there back through £/$1.60 before the eventual break.

2. That a break below £/$1.57 would target a trend to below £/$1.40.

On a longer term view, the chart is indicative of trading range between £/$1.57 and £/$1.37, on anticipation of the eventual break of £/$1.57. On average this implies a 10% sterling deprecation against the trend of the preceding 6 months or so. I expect sterling to fall against other major currencies such as the Euro where it targets a drop of 10% or so from the current 1.12.

What could drive sterling lower during 2010 apart form Dollar strength ?

The obvious thing that comes to mind is the Bank of England keeping UK base interest rates artificially low (UK interest rate forecast for 2010 will follow in the coming week- newsletter) whilst the economy recovers, inflation rises and the trade gap widens, therefore this WILL impact on the currency and result in relative weakness as commodities such as crude oil are priced in dollars and thus will result in an inflationary feed back loop. Neither is the currency helped by open ended money printing to monetize the huge amount of government debt issuance as a consequence of a 12%+ budget deficit.

UK Inflation Forecast 2009

Deflationary forces as a consequence of the the bursting of the asset bubbles has fulfilled the deflation forecast for 2009 as per the original analysis of December 2008 - UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009 that forecast Deflation into Mid 2009 targeting RPI of -1.2% and CPI of +0.9% to be followed by an uptrend into year end back into RPI inflation of +0.9% and CPI of +1.6% as illustrated by the below graph.

To ensure you get the in-depth analysis and precise forecasts for 2010 and beyond in your email in-box ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16071.html

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Dave Cripps
10 Jan 10, 16:02
the pound

I disagree entirly with your prediction on the British pound.There will be stablity in the uk causing the pound to rebound as there will be an upsurge in oil prices that will benifit the uk .


Ian McKenzie
01 Mar 10, 01:40
British Pound vs Australian dollar

What is the outlook for 2010 regarding the Pound and the Australian dollar as i have British pounds that i need to convert to Aus dollars.The exchange rate at present looks awful.


Debbie Lee
02 Mar 10, 04:19
Australian dollar vs british pound

We are going to Great Britian in October 2010. Should we buy British pounds now or wait. Is the exchange rate likely to rise any further. We rae first time travelers and are unsure of the best way to go. many thanks Debbie


Nadeem_Walayat
02 Mar 10, 13:31
British Pound / Aussie Dollar

Given the demand, i will do a short article on Pound / Aussie dollar.

Though remember I don't track or trade that cross so it will likely impact accuracy.

Best.

NW.

P.S. Dave, my analysis is based on probability of a trend, not on a political viewpoint, i.e. we can all WANT the pound to rise for patriotic reasons but thats NOT what the analysis concludes towards as which is manifesting now.


christine eccles
05 Apr 10, 05:28
gbp and aud

im an expat who gets their pension converted every month from gbp to aud. the present rate of exchange is terrible to say the least - will it get better and if so when?


James Shea
08 Apr 10, 09:33
Buying European Property

We are looking at buying property in Spain, but will have to put 30% down in deposit. Should I wait till the pound improves before buying or do you think the current rate is as good as it's going to get with the BofE holding rates down for at least another 6 months?


Philip
11 May 10, 17:25
Current British pound strenghth

I think we might have to wait one or even two more years fot the British Pound rates to go up high again, like it was in 2004 and 2005, or it may never be the same as those years, but since Britain has taken the economic crises so hard. It may take longer than expected.


Shravan Trambadiya
14 May 10, 17:45
Question

please,tell..

when British pound is up in future....


Dave Lloyd
15 May 10, 08:55
GBP

All currencies are going to zero in the greatest bonfire of paper wealth in all of recorded history. Global bankruptcy is the real elephant in the room here.

Shiny yellow metal paperweights won't save the goldbugs either.

Got Ammo?

Prepare, and prepare well, for ...Armageddon......

Coming Sooner than you think to a Theatre Near You


terry
21 May 10, 12:20
thai baht

why is the thai baht still strong after all the political upheaval we have seen this last few months.

I am an ex pat from the Uk at present the exchange rate is very low as 45 baht to the GBP. could this improve


Nadeem_Walayat
21 May 10, 18:18
Thai baht

Because the economy is growing strongly a t 5.9% GDP that draws foriegn capital in and has a positive balance of payments that builds reserves.

Whilst the UK is low growth economy with a large balance of payments deficit.

Therefore whilst the economic fundementals are relatively positive then the currency will continue to appreciate.

This implies stock market weakness as a consquence of political crisis is a Thai buying opportunity.


Sam
23 May 10, 23:13
Thai Baht

5 years ago the Thai Baht to UK Sterling was 70:1, 1 year ago 58:1 and today 46:1 - significant % changes.

Tourism, one of the main stay of economy has suffered greatly, and is likely to even more. Tourist have value for money and spending power has always been a key factor and decision for tourists to make Thailand their destination of choice.

Could it be that inflation would create more negative consequences if for example Thai Baht and sterling returned to say the 60:1 mark?

What is the likely hood of the Thai Baht exchange rate with UK sterling moving towards the 60:1 mark?


Sam
23 May 10, 23:26
Thai GDP

What is the main driver to enable the Thai economy to be growing at 5.9% ?

How may these drivers be affected by the recent troubles in Thailand/

From my research Tourism accounts for 6% of GDP in Thailand, which I thought would have been much higher.


Nadeem_Walayat
24 May 10, 02:58
Thai trend

> What is the likely hood of the Thai Baht exchange rate with UK sterling moving towards the 60:1 mark?

Unlikely


Bharath B
26 Aug 10, 03:34
GBP vs Indian Rupees

Hi,

What is your forecast for the conversion rate from GBP to INR in the year 2010? Since last two years conversion rate is pathetic. Any expert views for this year please?

Thanks


Lynn
29 Sep 10, 10:01
GBP to USD

Is it best to change GBP to USD now or wait a couple more months?


Nadeem_Walayat
29 Sep 10, 10:58
GBP

Hi Lynn

My next indepth analysis is on GBP and is under way, I will be emailing it out within the next 4 days.

Barath - I am limited to which markets I can analyse and forecast for instance the GBP forecast collectively will take about 60 hours of analysis.

Best

NW


James
05 Oct 10, 22:06
GBP vs NZD

Hi do you have any views on whether the pound will strengthen against the NZ dollar?

I am an ex-pat looking to convert my GBP over, but just waiting till a better time!


Nadeem_Walayat
06 Oct 10, 08:37
British Pound Trend Forecast Into Mid 2011 - 4th October 2010

In depth Analysis here - British Pound Sterling GBP Currency Trend Forecast into Mid 2011

Conclusion Below:

BRITISH POUND CONCLUSION

The people of Britain should count themselves lucky to have a government that gives all of the signs that it in tends on getting a grip of the budget deficit, though contrary to the politicians statements the government will NOT be able to prevent total debt from increasing by 50% over the next 5 years, which suggests that most of the politicians do not understand Britain's debt situation as they confuse deficit reduction with debt reduction. Nevertheless the positive outcome is for a lower pace of decline for sterling than the dollar (the U.S. is busy printing money to finance a military it cannot afford) which therefore implies a higher UK GBP rate as long as the proposed cuts and deficit reduction materialises, which according to my own analysis suggests that the government should be able to do so for at least the next 2 years, so in currency trends terms this is bullish for sterling for at least the next 1-2 years against the U.S. Dollar, which is set against the US authorities showing NO signs of restraint in terms of getting a grip of the deficit instead the opposite is true.

In terms of the GBP trend, the UK appears to have entered into the goldilocks zone (comparatively speaking) i.e. deficit reduction without triggering a double dip recession, a trend that looks set to continue for at least a year. The big question mark is how will the US economy perform relatively speaking, all the signs are for the US economy to continue to underperform the UK for the next 12 months which confirms a bullish GBP trend.

GBP Final Forecast Conclusion

The British Pound is in a multi-year bull market against the U.S. Dollar, I expect the current phase of this bull market to see GBP trend higher into mid 2011 targeting a rate of between £/$ 1.80 and £/$1.90 as the below forecast trend graph illustrates (current £/$ 1.58), though I would not be surprised if GBP trades above £/$1.90. I also expect sterling to strengthen against the Euro that targets a trend high E/£ 1.30 (current E/£1.15). However the forex markets will be just as volatile as they have been during the past 2 years as future sovereign debt and banking sector crisis will temporarily result in a surge of safe haven dollar buying, which will present future opportunities to short the dollar.

The GBP forecast conclusion will now be applied to my next in-depth analysis on UK interest rates, and then USD, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get these in your email in box.

Comments and Source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23203.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 24 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Andrea
14 Oct 10, 14:31
Australian dollar v British pound

We are travelling to Perth in March 2011, are we best changing our money now? Or is there a chance the exchange rate will be better in the new year? Please help.


Nadeem_Walayat
14 Oct 10, 15:07
AUD/ GBP

Hi

It takes at least a week to generate an in-depth analysis / forecast. So I can give you a quick take based on implications of earlier GBP analysis + about 20 mins on AUD , which I will post below later today.

Best

NW


Nadeem_Walayat
14 Oct 10, 19:16
British Pound / Australian Dollar
Andrea asks : We are traveling to Perth in March 2011, are we best changing our money now? Or is there a chance the exchange rate will be better in the new year? Please help.

In answer to Andrea and others who have posted similar comments requesting an analysis of GBP/AUD, this analysis seeks to extrapolate recent in depth analysis on the Dollar and British Pound with regards to the Aussie Dollar.

04 Oct 2010 - British Pound Sterling GBP Currency Trend Forecast into Mid 2011

The British Pound is in a multi-year bull market against the U.S. Dollar, I expect the current phase of this bull market to see GBP trend higher into mid 2011 targeting a rate of between £/$ 1.80 and £/$1.90 as the below forecast trend graph illustrates (current £/$ 1.58), though I would not be surprised if GBP trades above £/$1.90. I also expect sterling to strengthen against the Euro that targets a trend high E/£ 1.30 (current E/£1.15). However the forex markets will be just as volatile as they have been during the past 2 years as future sovereign debt and banking sector crisis will temporarily result in a surge of safe haven dollar buying, which will present future opportunities to short the dollar.

12 Oct 2010 - USD Index Trend Forecast Into Mid 2011, U.S. Dollar Collapse (Again)?

The USD index is targeting a trend to a new all time low in the region of USD 69-70 by mid 2011, that will be followed by a strong rally that could see the Dollar retrace all of the decline back towards USD 80. The problem is with the timing of these trends as volatility will be high. It's a tough exercise but I conclude in the USD taking some time to base following the mid 2011 low before the subsequent bounce to 80 takes place. Therefore the forecast trend is USD 69-70 by mid 2011 followed by a bounce to 80 by October 2011. The immediate future is suggestive of an imminent bounce towards 80 by early December before the final swing lower to a new all time low takes place as illustrated by the below forecast trend graph.

The above analysis forecasts GBP 17% rally by mid 2011, against a USD 9% fall by mid 2011, which therefore implies a relatively strong sterling trend against that of other currencies to the tune of a net average of +8%, which on face value suggests GBP could strengthen against the AUD by mid 2011 by upto 8%.

British Pound / Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

Whilst I do not have the time to perform an in-depth analysis of the Aussie Dollar, however I can test to see if the above estimated relative strength is likely to pan out against AUD or not.

The Australian dollar is clearly in a powerful multi-year uptrend that has its basis in structural fundamentals both economic and resource based rather than technical. The range appears to be between a low of 0.58 and a new all time high 0.67 against the last 0.62. The trend targets a GBP/AUD rate of between 0.64 and 067 by mid 2011 (+3% to +8%).

What would I do if I NEEDED to convert from Sterling to AUD by Mid 2011?

Given that the Aussie Dollar is expected to continue strengthening against sterling, I would bite the bullet and transfer an amount of 5-10% every week, and take advantage of any dips to below 0.60 (could trade to 0.58 to transfer larger percentages).

Comments and Source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23511.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

.


Julian Kohn
18 Oct 10, 11:19
10 year trend in exchange rate for GBP downwards

I have relatives living in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong, and have visited them over the past five years. Out of curiosity I regularly check out a trend graph on a financial website concerning exchange rates. Can you tell my why for the last 10 years the GBP has steadily fallen against all three currencies AUD, NZD, & HKD ? Is there nothing that can be done to reverse this trend?


Mina
20 Oct 10, 17:51
BRITISH POUND AGAINST US Dollar

Can you please tell me if US dollar going to get any worse against British

pound. I am going to UK 1st week in November.


Nadeem_Walayat
20 Oct 10, 22:02
GBP

Hi

The forecast is for a range of approx £/$1.60 and £/$1.56 into end November (as indicated above).


Kirstin
26 Oct 10, 06:55
Pay for trip now?

Hi Nadeem,

I know similar questions have been asked but I don't understand the graphs all that well *runs for cover*. We're heading to the UK in April/May 2011 from Australia. Are we better to pay for some accommodation etc now or wait til closer to the time to get best exchange value for our Aussie dollar into UK pounds? Thanks for your help, Kirstin


andy Thomas
07 Nov 10, 03:22
Forecast for UK pound agaonst Thai baht for 2011

Hi Nadeem,

I live in Thailand and will be selling my property in the UK soon. I wonder what you forecast the UK pound to Thai baht for next year as I don't want to lose lots on exchange rates by changing my money now if the pound will rise later next year. I see you say it will rise against the dollar, which usually is a positive for a rise a against the baht?

Thanks for your help

Andy


Sakour
15 Nov 10, 11:45
UK Pounds against Indian Rupees

hi Nadeem

I am wondering if pounds will rise more against the indian rupees in 2011?

Thanks for help


Nadeem_Walayat
15 Nov 10, 13:16
Indian Rupee

Resistance is at 74, a break of which would target 80.


Stephen
17 Nov 10, 05:39
AUD

Have shifted my sterling to a GBP account in aus, should i rush to convert to AUD or study it till the new year?


nick
24 Nov 10, 16:18
uk pound against thai baht

Hi Nadeem,

I have the same question as Andy.I live in thailand and am selling my house in uk.What do you think the baht will be like in 2011.

thanks very much

nick


Nadeem_Walayat
24 Nov 10, 20:15
Sterling / Thai Baht

Okay, I will give you my quick take.

Long-term the Thai Baht is in a bull market against sterling.

However, sterling may strengthen during the first half of 2011, to first target 52.50 and then 55. At this point this trend can only be considered as being corrective against he primary bearish trend for sterling against the Baht.


sana
26 Nov 10, 20:59
student

hi !

i have got admission in one of the universities of UK. I have to buy pound to pay fees before june 2011 and im a pakistani. Ineeded to ask that are there ny chances of pound to fall below the rate it is now adays as in fall to 120 RS or 125 Rs.

waiting for the reply

regards


Nadeem_Walayat
26 Nov 10, 21:47
Pakistan Rupee

It will have to be another quick take..... bare in mind that it can take me upto 3 weeks to usually formulate forecast based on in-depth analysis (and even several months in a few cases), so ....

I can clearly obseve a bull market trend within a relatively tight channel which suggests a price by Mid 2011 of between 125 and 145. With probablity favouring a rate near 137, though I would not be surprised if it is higher.


nageen
21 Dec 10, 07:49
pakistani rupees

Hi,

Can you tell me please, what would be the pound rate expected in pak rupees around february to march 2011. As i am going to pakistan for a wedding and need to change some pounds.


Wendy
22 Dec 10, 23:58
The pound against the Aussie Dollar

Hi Can you tell me when you expect the pound to rise again against the Australian Dollar 1.62 would be nice 1.80 would be great as we have been waiting to trf money from UK to Aussie for the last 8 mths not expecting it to fall this low & falling lower as each day goes on.

thank you


Lisa
18 Jan 11, 04:36
Student going to UK this year

Hi,

I am going to study aboard for one semester in UK from Hong Kong. I would like to know the outlook of GBP, whether i should now convert all money into pounds or i can withdraw discrete pounds (but subject to exchange rate risk). Will Pounds go up against USD/HKD in the coming months till June 2011?

URGENT.

Hope to hear from you soon.

THANKS


S.S.Revadi
26 Oct 11, 01:18
Pound to Indian rupee

I want to know the equivalant of Rupees Thirty to British Pound in the year 1931.


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