Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth

Social Unrest and Global States of Combustibility 2010

Politics / Social Issues Jan 01, 2010 - 03:51 PM GMT

By: Mac_Slavo

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Economist says that 2010 could be a year the sparks unrest in the Global Tinderbox: “IF THE world appears to have escaped relatively unscathed by social unrest in 2009, despite suffering the worst recession since the 1930s, it might just prove the lull before the storm. Despite a tentative global recovery, for many people around the world economic and social conditions will continue to deteriorate in 2010. An estimated 60m people worldwide will lose their jobs. Poverty rates will continue to rise, with 200m people at risk of joining the ranks of those living on less than $2 a day. But poverty alone does not spark unrest—exaggerated income inequalities, poor governance, lack of social provision and ethnic tensions are all elements of the brew that foments unrest.“


States of Combustibility Map:

We are surprised to see Argentina in the high category, as there has been quite a bit of positive news on the stability of this country with lots of alternative investors, like Doug Casey, promoting real estate and agricultural investments.

Mexico, however, is a given, and should probably ranked in the very high category. This country is a disaster, as evidenced by the thousands of deaths on the northern border related to narcotics trafficking, gangs, and mafia. Couple that with a population that has no jobs, and is now losing revenue from family members in the US, and you can have a serious breakdown in social order. It would be no surprise if these local wars make their way across the border into Texas, New Mexico and Arizona.

We think the Very High rating for the Middle East is dead on. If World War III is going to break out, this is where it is going to start. With religious wars spanning millennia , and resources  underground being drastically reduced through increased consumption around the world, it’s no wonder that this part of the globe is what one could deem a current SHTF scenario, and it’s only going to get worse.

It is also interesting that The Economist rated China as “High” risk, what with all the positive news about the new capitalist leanings and increased freedoms for their people. Here at SHTF Plan, we don’t doubt this rating one bit, considering the fact that all the hooplah about China being “decoupled” from the US economy and being the engine that’s driving the world, is just that, hooplah. Any economic problems in the USA are going to have a direct and immediate impact on China. End of story. That being said, if the mainstream is so incompetent as to see this relationship, I don’t think their competency can be trusted about understanding capitalism and how it functions in a politically communist system.

We do wonder about the USA. For the most part, things seem stable now, and save a few days of tea parties in 2009, nothing seems to be brewing. Though many have lost their jobs, the poverty levels have not increased significantly, at least not significantly enough to drive millions of people into the streets across major cities in the entire country. However, poverty, as opined by The Econmist, is only part of the combustibility equation, so we must consider the other aspects noted in the article:

  • Exaggerated Income Inequalities - This is a potential time bomb, as private sector, hard working Americans are seeing their 401k’s deteriorate, the values of their homes collapse, and their wages decline. All the while bankers and financiers on Wall Street pay themselves hundreds of thousands and multiple millions of dollars in bonuses. On top of that, the average salary of a government employee in America is almost double that of the private sector. Eventually, the plebs are going to realize that they are doing twice the work for half the pay, in some cases, fractions of pay. Will this happen in 2010? Maybe not, but it seems that income inequality could easily become an issue that sparks unrest.
  • Poor governance — Do we even need to go here? Really? The people have already had enough. When 90% of America calls Congress to reject the TARP bailout program prior to the vote, and then Congress pushes it through overwhelmingly, what is that? Good governance? How about raising property taxes, adding new health care taxes, eliminating Bush’s tax cuts and even taxing plastic bags from grocery stores? Is that considered good governance when your constituents are losing their jobs, defaulting on their credit cards and having problems putting food on the table?
  • Ethnic tension - Racism is not dead in America just because Barrack Obama was elected President. We can play these games all we want, but white people, black people, hispanic people, asian people — we have a hard time getting along. I mean sure, we get along for the most part and we’re cordial and all that, especially while everything is going smoothly in the system, and their isn’t a hiccup. But any number of events can set off this powder keg — with anti-immigration protests being just one. There’s a reason that Rodney King’s famous line, “Why can’t we all just get along?” still gets chuckles nearly 20 years later no matter what color the person is that makes the joke. Because the point being made is apparent to everyone that hears it.
  • Lack of Social Provisions - Maybe everything seems to be ok right now insofar as the recipients of social distributions are concerned, but at the rate we are going, social provisions MUST be cut. Look at California, just one of many examples. California is so broke that it is going to have to pull the plug on some social programs. What happens when welfare, medicare, medicaid, unemployment assistance, or a host of other programs need to be cut? Sure, the Federal government may bail out the states — at first — but then they themselves go broke, and they  have to make cuts. Those living on the very edge will lose what little support they had, and then the SHTF.

The Economist focuses on the risks of social unrest in 2010. While the above points may be on the back burner for now, they are slowly simmering. Serious civil unrest, the kind that might warrant a Medium or High risk rating, does not seem to be likely this year. Though, this may be argued by a number of other forecasters who see this as a distinct possibility for 2010.

Rather than making a forecast that predicts that we will either have civil unrest or we won’t, we’ll try to make our views as vague as possible, so that a year from now we can say we were right no matter what happens: Maybe social unrest in America on massive scales is not probable, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility. We hope that makes everyone feel better about it all.

By Mac Slavo

http://www.shtfplan.com/

Mac Slavo is a small business owner and independent investor focusing on global strategies to protect, preserve and increase wealth during times of economic distress and uncertainty. To read our commentary, news reports and strategies, please visit www.SHTFplan.com

© 2009 Copyright Mac Slavo - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

peter gibbs
13 Aug 11, 17:18
STOPPING SOCIAL/ECONOMIC ROT

NO CRAP-NO COST GLOBAL FREEDOM ALERT !

Addressed to: GLOBAL POPULATIONS

The attached self-evident information file contains

knowledge which includes universal risk prevention

and security-developing programs designed for all levels

of citizen and community safety during times of social

/economic hardship and system reform adjustments.

The 40 page file can be stored in PC’s, hard drives, flash

drives, CD-R discs and printed on A4 paper and placed

in clear plastic folders for easy access.

This life-security program is currently moving

throughout Humanity’s electronic information

distribution networks forming physical witness

to what people can do to negotiate devastating

consequences of social/economic system failure.

The absolute power and practical usefulness of

this information has no limits and is now in your

decisive hands to share or deny its existence.

Silvia Dobson Re-presenting Nature’s System

Portfolio requests: warmich28(at)bigpond.com


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules