Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan
Gold Price Back Below $1,800! - 10th Sep 21
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… - 10th Sep 21
Silver Price seen tracking Copper prices higher - 10th Sep 21
The Pitfalls of Not Using a Solicitor for Your Divorce - 10th Sep 21
Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
This Boom-Bust Cycle in US Home Ownership Should Give Home Shoppers Pause - 9th Sep 21
Stock Market September Smackdown Coming Next? - 9th Sep 21 - Monica_Kingsley
Crazy Crypto Markets How to Buy Bitcoin, Litecoin for Half Market Price and Sell for TRIPLE! - 8th Sep 21
Sun Sea and Sand UK Holidays 2021, Scarborough in VR 180 3D! - 8th Sep 21
Bitcoin BTC Price Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2021 - 8th Sep 21
Hyper Growth Stocks - This billionaire is now using one of our top strategies - 8th Sep 21
6 common trading mistakes to avoid at all costs - 8th Sep 21
US Dollar Upswing, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook - 7th Sep 21
Dovish Assassins of the USD Index - 7th Sep 21
Weak August Payrolls: Why We Should Care - 7th Sep 21
A Mixed Stock Market - Still - 6th Sep 21
Energy Metals Build Momentum; Silver & Platinum May Follow - 6th Sep 21
What‘s Not to Love About Crypto Market Fireworks - 6th Sep 21
Surging US Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link? - 6th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold and Silver Bull Market Progress Report

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 May 31, 2010 - 10:53 AM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf

Commodities

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe debate currently taking place between gold bulls and gold bears is whether or not the central banks of the world are adding to the money supply of the world, or if money supply is contracting.

If bankers are increasing the supply, then the price of gold will rise in terms of this inflated money, (although gold does not really rise in price, it simply holds its value while fiat money loses value, thereby giving the appearance of rising).


One way to determine whether or not money supply is increasing is to look for reasons why the money supply would be increasing. This is because we are not sure if we can trust governments to tell us ‘the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth’ when they publish their reports. We know for sure the US CPI and unemployment reports are continually ‘under-reported’, so why not the money supply? After all the FED refuses to open its books to Congress.


This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the US government is running the worst deficits in more than 100 years. If the Federal Government were a family or a business faced with this kind of a deficit it would have to reduce spending and increase revenue or go bankrupt. A family or business has no other options. (Borrowing money only delays the inevitable).

The US government, along with many other governments, decided years ago that they would not consider a reduction in spending. The most important goal for the average politician is to get re-elected. Spending keeps the voters happy and happy voters tend to re-elect.

“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."
Frederic Bastiat.

The central banks oblige the politicians by printing the money and then loaning it to the government so the politicians can spend it.

Since we cannot count on governments to reign in spending, would it be possible for them to increase revenue in order to reduce the deficit?

Historically governments almost always raise taxes when they can justify it to the voters by claiming: “we have no other options”, or “it’s for the good of the country.” Unfortunately a deficit as large as the one facing the US and a dozen other countries cannot be covered by increased taxation.

Since governments have the ability to print money (an option not available to families and businesses), we can reach the conclusion that governments will continue to print money. To stop doing so would mean the end of a lucrative career for a good many politicians who have never had a job outside of public service.

Since the financial problems facing the US and Europe cannot be solved without extreme and unpopular hardships, and since the ‘solution’ to this point has been to ‘print baby print’, we can be almost certain that the printing presses will continue to ‘print away’.

This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis indicates that the M2 money supply continues to rise almost exponentially. In view of the fact that the CPI and unemployment numbers are ‘massaged’, it is possible that the actual M2 might even be greater than 8.5 trillion. Whenever Mr. Bernanke is asked “who got the TARP money”, he refuses to give a specific answer.

“The Central Bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but coin. If the American people allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property, until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.”
Thomas Jefferson.


This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows state and local tax receipts to be in freefall. As long as weekly first time unemployment compensation claims remain above 400,000 and businesses continue to contract, this trend is not likely to turn back up any time soon.

Although this chart covers only state and local taxes, the trend in federal tax take is very similar.

Meanwhile the demand for social services from the Federal Government is increasing, acting like a two-edged sword (see below).

This chart courtesy Julie Snider at USA Today, shows a definite trend toward the ‘two-edged sword’ referred to above. Both the 41.9% and 17.9% are records! A cynic might say that this is a rush toward socialism – more government and less private enterprise.

We can draw the following conclusions:
• Spending by the various governments is ongoing, as the will to stop is (not yet) evident.
• The deficits are huge and growing.
• The point of no return (cut spending and increase revenue) is now behind us.
• ‘A trend is motion remains in motion till it is stopped’.
• That trend is: borrow and print.
• Until we see evidence that the ‘trend in motion’ has been stopped, gold and silver will continue to rise.


Featured is the weekly gold chart. The blue arrows point to bottoms in the 7 – 8 week gold cycle. This coming week is week # 2 in the 7 – 8 week gold cycle. The peak in the cycle most often occurs during week # 4 (36% of the time), followed by week #3 (27% of the time). The peak in the cycle just past reached a top during week # 7

The Gold Direction Indicator rose to 76% Friday compared to 70% Thursday and 71% Wednesday. When the GDI rises this high it usually means we are closing in on a spot where commercials take profits. That might happen at (subscribers). Since we are early in the 7 – 8 week cycle this will simply be a ‘bump in the road’.

Support for gold is (subscribers), with resistance at (subscribers).


Featured is the gold price in Canadian dollars. Price is carving out a bullish ‘cup with handle’ formation. A breakout at the blue arrow will lead to a target at (subscribers). The 50D is in positive alignment to the 200D (blue oval), and both are rising.

Canadians might think they are not in danger, but the Canadian government sold its gold reserves (38 billion dollars worth) when gold was cheap and invested the proceeds in US Treasury bills. There is nothing backing the Loonie, and if the Greenback drops in value, the Loonie is likely to follow.


Featured is the gold price in Euros. Price is carving out a bullish pennant. A breakout at the blue arrow will have a target at (subscribers).


Featured is the index that compares gold to the ‘bonds of the world’ (stuff vs. fluff). The trend is up and the 50D is in positive alignment to the 200D (green oval). The trend is ‘up, up and away.’


Featured is the weekly silver chart. The pattern is a very bullish Advancing Right Angled Triangle formation. It predicts a coming breakout, possibly at 20.00 and almost for sure at 21.00 with a target at (subscribers). The 50D is in positive alignment to the 200D (green oval), and both are rising. Once price breaks out above 21.00 we’ll see some daily moves of +1.00. Ideally this breakout would wait till late summer, as it would then coincide with the annual ‘Christmas rally’, but it could occur almost any time.

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.”
Alexis de Tocqueville.

Summary:

More and more people (worldwide) are becoming aware of the fact that ‘all is not well’ with the financial system. Fraud and corruption are evident in government and the banking industry. Gold will be seen as a beacon of safety. Recently in Greece people were willing to convert paper money for gold sovereigns at $399.00 ea, (the equivalent of $1,700.00 US dollars per ounce).

The bull market in gold is barely underway and will move higher for many years!

Happy trading!

By Peter Degraaf

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report on the markets for his many subscribers. For a sample issue send him an E-mail at itiswell@cogeco.net , or visit his website at www.pdegraaf.com where you will find many long-term charts, as well as an interesting collection of Worthwhile Quotes that make for fascinating reading.

© 2010 Copyright Peter Degraaf - All Rights Reserved

DISCLAIMER: Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions.

Peter Degraaf Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in