Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold Near Parabolic on Hopes of QE2 Starting in November

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Oct 13, 2010 - 05:02 PM GMT

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe want QE II on 3 November. No, we demand that the U.S. Federal Reserve announce QE II, quantitative easing second act, on that day. We want confirmation. No, we demand confirmation that Keynesian economics is both intellectually bankrupt and a complete failure!


For those living outside of the U.S., on 2 November the most important U.S. election since 1932 will take place. On that day, U.S. voters may repudiate the Keynesian liberal model of government. For nearly 80 years Keynesian liberals have been on a path of wealth confiscation and destruction not seen since the Mongol hordes unleashed their terror across Asia and Europe. On 2 November we may, hopefully, witness the beginning of the death of Keynesianism. If not, we still have Gold.

With $Gold in a clear parabolic movement, perfection is now required. Markets are fully anticipating that QE II will explode onto the scene on 3 November. Federal Reserve is expected, by near all market participants, to begin a massive second round of liquidity injections into the U.S. financial system. This action is universally expected to crush the U.S. dollar, and send $Gold into the stratosphere. Nonsensical forecasts for $Gold are the primary byproduct of these expectations, with the latest being a ridiculous one of $8,000.

QE II is widely forecast to arrive on 3 November, at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. However, events of the day before may prevent that from happening. Lost in the forecasting is that the U.S. will hold elections for Congress on 2 November. While the polls generally suggest a crushing defeat for the minions of the Obama Regime, we can safely make only one good forecast for 3 November. Most likely consequence of the U.S. election is that on 3 November Washington will awake to political turmoil.

Certainly we can reasonably expect that the full results of that election will not be known on the following day, 3 November. And some are already giving the Federal Reserve an indication of what they might expect with the new Congress. A nominee to the Board of the Federal Reserve is being held up in the Senate. The next U.S. Congress will be openly hostile to the ongoing mismanagement of U.S. monetary policy. We know it, and so does the Federal Reserve.

Given politics of the day, expectations that the FOMC would announce a policy that, one, acknowledges the complete failure of Keynesian economics, two, confirms expectations of the Great Obama Recession II coming in January, and, three, could lead to a massive depreciation of the U.S. dollar is quite unlikely. With the parabolic formation in $Gold well extended, considerable disappointment on 3 November could reign in the Gold markets.

Parabolic formations are not kind to disappointment. With FRB Vice Chairman Janet Yellen attempting to dampen expectations, AP Business Wire on 12 Oct, disappointment on 3 November is increasingly likely. As a consequence of that possibility, downside risk for $Gold out of the parabolic formation must be considered. Downside risk out of the parabolic is to US$675.

Given the dismal history of hedge funds, following them into the Gold markets at this time seems unwise. Perhaps the only investors that should be buying at this time are EU-based investors due to the massive over valuation of the Euro. For most though, buying is an activity better deferred to a time when frivolous forecasts of $8,000 Gold are not being tossed about.

By Ned W Schmidt CFA, CEBS

GOLD THOUGHTS come from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS as part of a joyous mission to save investors from the financial abyss of paper assets. He is publisher of The Value View Gold Report, monthly, and Trading Thoughts, about weekly. To receive these reports, go to www.valueviewgoldreport.com

Copyright © 2010 Ned W. Schmidt - All Rights Reserved

Ned W Schmidt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

thhom
14 Oct 10, 20:41
gold

you have been wrong!


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules