Best of the Week

Shocking Trends in Natural Disasters

Politics / Environmental Issues Feb 14, 2011 - 07:30 AM GMT

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article 2011 has begun with drought in China and Kenya, flood in Sri Lanka, and Australia suffering both cyclone and flood. 2010 saw major drought and wildfires in Russia and the worst drought in the Brazilian Amazon in 100 years, as well as flood in Pakistan that affected a massive 20 million people. Volcanic eruption in Iceland affected European air travel and large earthquakes were registered in both Chile and Haiti last year.

Such a cluster of natural disasters could be coincidental or a blip, so let's get the long term perspective. It makes for fairly shocking reading:

1. Droughts and Floods:

Source: emdat.be

2. Hurricanes (tropical storms or cyclones):

Source: Globalwarmingart.com

3. Tornadoes:

Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center

4. Geomagnetic Storms:

Source: Susan Macmillan, British Geological Survey

5. Tsunamis:

Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center

6. Earthquakes (black line):

Source: ThinkAtheist.com

7. Volcanism:

Source: Michaelmandeville.com

One explanation is that better recording techniques over time are responsible for what appears to be increasing occurrence. However, we have enjoyed fairly comprehensive and consistent observation in all these fields over the last 3 decades, and yet homing in on just this period we still see rising trends. Only droughts and tsunamis perhaps lack clear acceleration. Furthermore, periodic shifts in detection technology would make for occasional step-ups on the charts, rather than gradually increasing trends. There is a real underlying increase in the bulk of these phenomena, if not all.

So what's causing what? And what are the implications?

Read more here: http://amalgamator.co.uk/10NaturalPhenomena.aspx

John Hampson

www.amalgamator.co.uk

John Hampson, UK / Self-taught full-time trading at the global macro level / Future Studies
www.amalgamator.co.uk / Forecasting By Amalgamation / Site launch 1st Feb 2011

© 2011 Copyright John Hampson - All Rights Reserved

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