Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Sell American, Buffett Is

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Feb 16, 2011 - 09:02 AM GMT

By: Brady_Willett

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn an October 16, 2008 op-ed entitled ‘Buy American. I Am’, Warren Buffett revealed that he was moving his own wealth into equities, adding that “If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.” Coming from someone that regularly contends he never tries to time the markets, this was easily Buffett’s most bullish call since October 1974.  And while it would take and additional 5-months before stocks would reach a ‘bottom’, it is now safe to conclude that Buffett, once again, was right.


To recap: Back when many believed all was lost Buffett had the courage to invest in America based largely upon one elegantly simple premise: “…the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts…Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree.”

28-months after Buffett penned the above: America is still here, stock prices have bolted significantly higher, and it is now accepted wisdom that policy makers have successfully ‘forced’ investors into riskier assets by reducing the returns on safe assets. Accordingly, the legend of Buffett continues to grow…

Needless to say, the conditions that made Buffett bullish back in late 2008 are no longer prevalent today. Rather, ‘fear’ in the marketplace has vanished, stock prices have outpaced any fundamental improvement in the economy, and the story of cash being a dead asset has been beaten to death.  Ever the contrarian, Buffett’s historic romp into equities is, at least for the moment, over.

Buffett Begins Hibernation Process

In the fourth quarter of 2010 Buffett continued to reduce his (Berkshire’s) equity positions, cashing out approximately $1.2 billion (Berkshire 13F filings). Buffett also failed to produce any new buys and only added to a single long-term holding (Wells Fargo).  When contrasted against yesterday’s penchant for deal making these activities, or lack thereof, strongly suggest that Buffett is becoming bearish on equities.

It has been argued that many of Berkshire’s recent stock sales are related to the retirement of GEICO CEO Louis Simpson (the same story used to explain Berkshire’s stock sales in the third quarter of 2010). However, GIECO-related portfolio reshuffling does not fully explain why Berkshire’s cash hoard continues to skyrocket.  To be sure, Berkshire’s upcoming 10K will likely reveal that Buffett has added more than $10 billion in cash since the second quarter of 2009 (up approximately +50%) - a figure well above the increase in tangible equity created by Berkshire during the same time.  Furthermore, given recent trends Berkshire will likely soon eclipse the record $67 billion in cash and ‘fixed maturity securities’ Berkshire hit in 2005.

Assuming stock prices do not capitulate lower, this 5-quarter theme of cash accumulation could remain in play for some time. After all, remember that the last time reckless monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts united to produce a recovery Buffett spent nearly 5-years amassing cash.

In short, the problem of having more cash than ideas is not one that Mr. Buffett has had to deal with since he went on a buying binge in 2008.  And while it is not known to what degree Buffett has reduced his personal exposure to equities, that Berkshire cannot find any equity bargains and is starting to hoard cash in a relatively big way is self explanatory: sell.

BWillett@fallstreet.com

By Brady Willett
FallStreet.com

FallStreet.com was launched in January of 2000 with the mandate of providing an alternative opinion on the U.S. equity markets.  In the context of an uncritical herd euphoria that characterizes the mainstream media, Fallstreet strives to provide investors with the information they need to make informed investment decisions. To that end, we provide a clearinghouse for bearish and value-oriented investment information, independent research, and an investment newsletter containing specific company selections.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules