Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Fed is Wrong – Inflation Has Arrived!

Interest-Rates / Inflation Feb 17, 2011 - 09:14 AM GMT

By: Sy_Harding

Interest-Rates

Fed Chairman Bernanke says inflation is still benign and not a concern. He’s wrong! And he’s behind the curve, dangerously so!
Inflationary pressures have been rising and recognized in many major global economies for quite some time, which has had their central banks raising interest rates and tightening monetary policies in efforts to bring rising prices under control. So far without effect, thanks to the intensity of the inflationary pressures.


China began raising interest rates and tightening policies almost a year ago, and has become more aggressive recently as the efforts so far have had no effect whatever. Similar inflationary concerns and efforts to cool off rising prices in India have spread through the rest of Asia, into Russia, over to Brazil and the rest of South America, and into Africa.

This week in Europe, the United Kingdom reported that its annualized rate of inflation jumped to 4% in January, up from an already worrisome 3.7% in December. The 4% level is double the Bank of England’s stated ‘comfort zone’ of 2%, which by the way is the same as the Fed’s stated comfort zone.

The Fed looks out the rear view mirror and says that the ‘core rate’ of inflation, that is with the cost of food and energy removed, is up only 1.6% over the last 12 months, well within the Fed’s comfort zone.

The Fed needs to look out the windshield at what’s coming down the road, not through the rear window.

Yesterday in the U.S. it was reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), measuring inflation at the producer level, jumped an unexpected 0.8% in January from December, and the ‘core rate’ jumped 0.5%, more than double the consensus forecast of economists, and the fastest monthly pace of increase in two years.

And it looks like it’s moving on from producers to consumers. This morning it was reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.4% in January. The Fed will take comfort that the core rate was only up 0.2%, an annualized rate of 2.4%. It was however, also double the consensus forecast of a rise of only 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the World Bank president warned yesterday that global food prices have hit “dangerous levels” that could create political instability in many parts of the world. The bank reported that global food prices have jumped 29% over the last 12 months.

Commodity futures, particularly in the areas of corn, soybeans, cotton, are pointing to still higher prices ahead. And agriculture experts say there is not enough global growing capacity to bring prices down any time soon.

Yesterday, CitiGroup CEO Vikram Pandit warned that “Many emerging markets are operating at or near capacity and are therefore at risk of overheating – and must deal with the possible consequences of inflation.”

The release of the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting revealed that some Fed governors suggested last month that the Fed scale back the remainder of its QE2 program on concerns that the continuing easy money policy could create an inflation problem. Countries around the world have complained since the Fed’s QE2 announcement that it would worsen already worrisome global inflationary pressures.

But the Fed Chairman is fixated on trying to fix the high unemployment problem in the U.S. by pumping up an already recovering economy, and in the process has his head in the sand regarding inflation.

It looks like once again the Fed will be dangerously behind the curve on a bubble, as it was in the stock market and housing bubbles. This time it is the inflation bubble, particularly in commodities.

The historic hedge against inflation – gold!

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp, publishers of the financial website www.StreetSmartReport.com, and the free daily market blog, www.SyHardingblog.com.

© 2011 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in