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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Going to $5,000 or More!

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Jun 17, 2011 - 02:39 PM GMT

By: Lorimer_Wilson


Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOf the 133 analysts who have now gone public in maintaining that gold will eventually go to a parabolic peak price of $2,500/ozt.+ before the bubble bursts, 90 – yes 90, maintain that gold will reach at least $5,000 per ozt. Take a look here at who is projecting what, by when.

Editor’s Note:
1. If you find a name missing from the list below send it to me (editor-at-munKNEE-dot-com) with the URL of the article in which the individual states his/her case so keep the list the most comprehensive on the internet. Only projections of at least $2,500 per troy ounce, accompanied by sound reasons, will be included in the revised list.
2. For a hyperlink to the actual article in which the individuals state their parabolic peak price projections and rationale go here.

3 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Parabolic Peak Sometime in 2011!

  1. Bob Kirtley: $10,000;
  2. Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000;
  3. Taran Marwah: $3,000;

10 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Peak By the End of 2012

  1. Arnold Bock: $10,000;
  2. Porter Stansberry: $10,000;
  3. Taran Marwah: $6,000+;
  4. Greg McCoach: $5,000+;
  5. Robert McEwen: $5,000;
  6. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $3,000 – $5,000;
  7. John Paulson: $2,400 – $4,000;
  8. Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000;
  9. Peter Hambro: $2,500;
  10. Charles Nenner: $2,500

These 11 Analysts See Gold Going Parabolic to +$10,000

  1. DoctoRX: $20,000 (by 2020);
  2. Mike Maloney: $15,000;
  3. Ben Davies: $10,000 – $15,000;  
  4. Howard Katz: $14,000;
  5. Jeffrey Lewis: $7,000 – $14,000;
  6. Jim Sinclair: $12,455;
  7. Goldrunner: $10,000 – $12,000;
  8. Martin Armstrong: $5,000 – $12,000 (by 2015/16);
  9. Robin Griffiths: $3,000 – $12,000 (by 2015); 
  10. Jim Rickards: $4,000 – $11,000;
  11. Roland Watson: $10,800;

These 46 Analysts See Gold Price Peaking Between $5,001 and $10,000

  1. Bob Kirtley: $10,000 (by 2011);
  2. Arnold Bock: $10,000 (by 2012);
  3. Porter Stansberry: $10,000 (by 2012);
  4. Peter George: $10,000 (by 2015);
  5. Tom Fischer: $10,000;
  6. Shayne McGuire: $10,000;
  7. Eric Hommelberg: $10,000;
  8. David Petch: $6,000 – $10,000;  
  9. Gerald Celente: $6,000 – $10,000;
  10. Egon von Greyerz: $6,000 – $10,000;
  11. Peter Schiff: $5,000 – $10,000 (in 5 to 10 years);
  12. Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000 (by 2011);
  13. Peter Millar: $5,000 – $10,000;
  14. Roger Wiegand: $5,000 – $10,000;
  15. Alf Field: $4,250 – $10,000;
  16. Jeff Nielson: $3,000 – $10,000;
  17. Dennis van Ek: $9,000 (by 2015);
  18. Dominic Frisby: $8,000;
  19. Paul Brodsky: $8,000;  
  20. James Turk: $8,000 (by 2015);
  21. Joseph Russo: $7,000 – $8,000;
  22. Bob Chapman: $7,700;                        
  23. Michael Rozeff: $2,865 – $7,151;
  24. Jim Willie: $7,000;
  25. Greg McCoach: $6,500;
  26. Dylan Grice: $6,300;
  27. Chris Mack: $6,241.64 (by 2015);
  28. Chuck DiFalco: $6,214 (by 2018);                                                        
  29. Jeff Clark: $6,214;                                                                                          
  30. Aubie Baltin: $6,200 (by 2017);
  31. Murray Sabrin: $6,153;                                                                                                      
  32. Adam Hamilton: $6,000+;                                                     
  33. Samuel “Bud” Kress: $6,000 (by 2014);
  34. Robert Kientz: $6,000;
  35. Harry Schultz: $6,000;
  36. John Bougearel: $6,000;
  37. David Tice: $5,000 – $6,000;
  38. Laurence Hunt: $5,000 – $6,000 (by 2019);
  39. Taran Marwah: $3,000 – $6,000+ (by Dec. 2011 and Dec.2012, respectively);       
  40. Martin Hutchinson: $3,100 – $5,700;
  41. Stephen Leeb: $5,500 (by 2015);
  42. Louise Yamada: $5,200;
  43. Jeremy Charlesworth: $5,000+;
  44. Przemyslaw Radomski: $5,000+;
  45. Jason Hamlin: $5,000+;
  46. David McAlvany: $5,000+                                   

Cumulative sub-total: 57
(For a hyperlink to the article in which the individuals state their parabolic peak price projections and rationale go here.)
These 33 Analysts Believe Gold Price Could Go As High As $5,000

  1. David Rosenberg: $5,000;
  2. James West: $5,000;
  3. Doug Casey: $5,000;
  4. Peter Cooper: $5,000;
  5. Robert McEwen: $5,000 (by 2012 – 2014);
  6. Peter Krauth: $5,000;
  7. Tim Iacono: $5,000 (by 2017);
  8. Christopher Wyke: $5,000;
  9. Frank Barbera: $5,000;
  10. John Lee: $5,000;
  11. Barry Dawes: $5,000;              
  12. Bob Lenzer: $5,000 (by 2015);
  13. Steve Betts: $5,000;
  14. Stewart Thomson: $5,000;
  15. Charles Morris: $5,000 (by 2015);
  16. Marvin Clark: $5,000 (by 2015);
  17. Eric Sprott: $5,000;
  18. Nathan Narusis: $5,000;
  19. Bud Conrad: $4,000 – $5,000;
  20. Paul Mylchreest: $4,000 – $5,000;
  21. Pierre Lassonde: $4,000 – $5,000;
  22. Willem Middelkoop: $4,000 – $5,000;
  23. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $3,000 – $5,000 (by February 2012);
  24. James Dines: $3,000 – $5,000;
  25. Bill Murphy: $3,000 – $5,000;
  26. Bill Bonner: $3,000 – $5,000;
  27. Peter Degraaf: $2,500 – $5,000;
  28. Eric Janszen: $2,500 – $5,000;
  29. Larry Jeddeloh: $2,300 – $5,000 (by 2013);
  30. Larry Edelson: $2,300 – $5,000 (by 2015);
  31. Luke Burgess: $2,000 – $5,000;
  32. Marc Faber: $1,500 – $5,000;   
  33. Robert Lloyd-George: $5,000 (by 2014)                                                 

Cumulative sub-total: 90
(For a hyperlink to the article in which the individuals state their parabolic peak price projections and rationale go here.)
31 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Up to Between $3,000 and $4,999

  1. David Moenning: $4,525;
  2. Larry Reaugh: $4,000+;
  3. Ernest Kepper: $4,000;
  4. Mike Knowles: $4,000;
  5. Ian Gordon/Christopher Funston: $4,000;
  6. Barry Elias: $4,000; (by 2020);
  7. Jay Taylor: $3,000 – $4,000;
  8. Christian Barnard: $2,500 – $4,000;
  9. John Paulson: $2,400 – $4,000 (by 2012);
  10. Paul Tustain: $3,844;
  11. Myles Zyblock: $3,800;
  12. Eric Roseman: $2,500 – $3,500 (by 2015);
  13. Christopher Wood: $3,360;
  14. Franklin Sanders: $3,130;
  15. John Henderson: $3,000+ (by 2015 – 17);
  16. Michael Berry: $3,000+ (by 2015);
  17. Hans Goetti: $3,000;
  18. Michael Yorba: $3,000;
  19. David Urban; $3,000;
  20. Mitchell Langbert: $3,000;
  21. Brett Arends: $3,000;
  22. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: $3,000;
  23. John Williams: $3,000;
  24. Byron King: $3,000;
  25. Ron Paul: $3,000 (by 2020);
  26. Chris Weber: $3,000 (by 2020);
  27. Mark Leibovit: $3,000;
  28. Mark O’Byrne: $3,000;
  29. Kevin Kerr: $3,000;
  30. Frank Holmes: $3,000;
  31. Shamik Bhose: $3,000 (by 2014)                                                               

Cumulative sub-total: 121
(For a hyperlink to the article in which the individuals state their parabolic peak price projections and rationale go here.)
These 12 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go to Between $2,500 and $3,000

  1. Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000 (by 2012);
  2. Jeff Nichols: $2,000 – $3,000;
  3. Graham French: $2,000 – $3,000;
  4. Bank of America Merrill Lynch: $2,000 – $3,000;                                                 
  5. Joe Foster: $2,000 – $3,000 (by 2019);                     
  6. David Morgan: $2,900;                                            
  7. Sascha Opel: $2,500+;
  8. Rick Rule: $2,500 (by 2013);
  9. Daniel Brebner: $2,500;              
  10. James DiGeorgia: $2,500;                
  11. Peter Hambro: $2,500 (by 2012);                                                                        
  12. Charles Nenner: $2,500 (by 2012 – 13)

Grand Total: 133
(For a hyperlink to the article in which the individuals state their parabolic peak price projections and rationale go here.)

There you have it. Who would have believed that 133 distinguished analysts would maintain that gold and by implication, silver, are likely to achieve such lofty levels as a result of the effects of our current financially troubled and volatile times? Their rationale is varied but each is sound in its own right.

If we are to put any credence whatsoever into the rationale presented by the above analysts then it seems prudent to seriously consider owning some physical gold and silver and/or the stocks and/or long-term warrants of those companies that mine these precious metals.

    Lorimer Wilson is Editor of (F.A.S.T.) and (Money, Monnee, Munknee!) and an economic analyst and financial writer. He is also a frequent contributor to this site and can be reached at"

    © 2011 Copyright Lorimer Wilson- All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    Lorimer Wilson Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


18 Jun 11, 18:36
Ridiculous Gold Article

Ireally love these gold hack articles. I plan to save them and repost them in a few years after gold collapses to $200.

Why didn't you quote what Warren Buffet said about gold?

20 Jun 11, 10:59
why the long face?

Interesting point of view WSS - can you explain your thinking that gold will go down to $200?

20 Jun 11, 21:41
gold $2,000, $3,000, $10,000, $200???

Successful investing and trading is a very, very lonely business. I am not a gold bug but I have been long term bullish on precious metals from chart interpretations. However, after reading this excellent consolidation of bullish analysts, I am getting very, very worried about my interpretation from here on (With due repect to these distinguished experts and no offence intended them.)

You may want to have company in great numbers when rounding up a posse but you certainly do not take comfort from company in numbers in successful investing and trading. Unless the law of probability is about to change! Or, as Elliotticians are apt to say "this is the point of recognition" where everyone and his dog sees the light! However I would not wish to bet a cent on either.

So there is a high probability that gold will not end at $2,000 to $3,000(the most common prediction by far above). Nor will it likely to end at $5,000, the next most common prediction. There are also more than I can count on my fingers predicting $10,000 and so I think the probability of gold topping at $10,000 is slim too.

Gosh, what does that lead to? Should I turn long term bearish? Or are all these analysts going to be so wrong that gold....... (gold bugs are going to kiss my ar-- if I finish this sentence!!) Well back to the drawing board.....!!??

Notice that numbers tend to be plucked from the thin air and those numbers tend to be just numbers of psychological convenience? Otherwise why the numbers 2,000, 3,000, 5,000, 10,000, 15,000 and 200? Because market stops at psychological round numbers? Bulls---, I say!

So that $200 also has a low probability of coming to pass. At least not in wss's liftime. Why $200? why not $150 or $250? And don't forget that in the last great gold bear market the low was only in the vicinity of $250. You are indeed a very, very brave man(or woman) to want to bet on a low of $200 happening in your lifetime. (Undoubtedly an influence of EW theory, specifically Precther's influence!?? Precther has been calling for a gold bear market with a not unsimilar target since the last 10 to 20 years!!) Plus you will be fighting a very big trend.

Successful trading is about making money from the market. Not about ego, should not be about wanting to be "right" about some prediction, should not be about wanting to be right in a debate on, say, "deflation vs inflation." Otherwise even if you are right you may get that 2 minute fame but still end up being a pauper... To have a high probabilty of making money, go with the flow. Not against it, as many Elliot Wave practicioners would want you to do time and again.

BTW, Warren Buffet is not a good example to use in anything except stock investing(not even stock trading!) He was and is not even good at tech stock investing! He bought silver at, what?, around $4 to $5 and then sold them off in a hurry at about $7(give and take some) only to see it going to a recent high of $50. You call that a smart precious metal investor? He invested in currencies not many year recently and lost a bundle on that venture. So no, he does not matter in anything but stock investing. Then again, if he has something good in stock, you will never have a chance to frontrun him. I used to admire him until recently when he started to show his true colors with all his self-serving remarks, comments and worst of all his inexplicable defence of his Berkshire honcho's insider trading actions. No, Buffet is definitely not the authority on gold. Being successful in stocks does not automatically make him an authority on gold or anyting else....

21 Jun 11, 06:39
Gold Going to $5,000 or More!

WSS I think you'll be waiting a long time !

21 Jun 11, 12:46
Got gold ?

Many who dont like gold as an investment have a hard time explaining why. What is a gold hack anyways ?

In a negative real interest rate environment, gold does well. As long as Central Banks keep interest rates low, govts monetize debt, and govts have huge budget deficits gold will go up because fiats a being debased. It would take another Paul Volker in the Fed raising interest rates to double digits to drop the gold price. Its not going to happen.

21 Jun 11, 18:32
@ truthhurtsss

Truth, your response is well thought out and makes sense. The trend is that when everyone is "on board" and there is a concensus , its time to get out. The list of who is on-board are the experts not the general public and funds. I have seen the numbers and very few investors hold gold or even ETFs. Based on the numbers I see, gold is underinvested ie nobody owns it. When I see that the general public is buying and a high % of people own gold in some form, then its time to get out - exactly as you say.

21 Jun 11, 21:36
Thanks, TEL

Thank you TEL. I did not say that it is the end of the great gold bull trend. I was making the point, a little tongue in cheek too, that those 133 are unlikely to get their targets correct since it is a huge bunch by any count. If this gold market ends up with a target as easily predicted as those 133 analysts have done, then this would probably be the first time in trading history.

I just don't like the odds......

22 Jun 11, 08:57
Go with the crowd???

I'm afraid if you want to make money you have to be prepared to go against the flow. It can be a lonely business. It takes insight, guts and self-belief. As TEL said above, the time to get out of any position is when the broad masses are clamouring to get into it. From the Zurich Axioms, "when people are queuing at the counter screaming 'gimme gimme gimme!!' you want to be on the other side letting them have it and saying 'gladly!'"

The outlook for gold remains rosey in spite of the usual summer doldrums which normally mark the price down a bit for a couple of months. Gold is not in any bubble. Not enough people own it. Nowhere near enough people!

22 Jun 11, 20:40
go with flow = go with trend, not the crowd!!

@ Paul_B, going with the flow in that sentence above means going with the trend, as in going with the flow of the market! Goodness, not with the crowd! But if you try to frequently go against the trend as most EW newsletter writers advise time and again, you are not going to end up well.

The whole point of my writing above is that you do not want to be with the crowd! Whether "experts" or otherwise. You even repeated my point that "it can be a lonely business" and yet you don't seem to comprehend.

Yes, gold is not yet in a bubble relative to the late 1970s or compared to the tech stocks in late 1990s. And it has not displayed any long term bearish signals yet.

24 Jun 11, 17:09

what will happen with gold price once qe2 finished ? will usd climb ? because if it does sorry about gold&silver.

in other countries like india and china everybody in buying g&s coins to protect them against inflation.

how long will it take to precious metals this profitaking ?

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