Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Who Will Win the U.S. Presidential Election, Forecast 2012

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012 Oct 27, 2012 - 06:15 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe final countdown to the U.S. presidential election has now begun with expectations that there is little that each candidate can now effect on the electorate during the remaining 10 days. Most opinion polls currently put Romney slightly ahead of Obama i.e. ABC 50/47, BBC Poll of Polls 49/47, Gallop 48/48. However the high margin of error of as much as +/ -5%, and typically +/ -3% compounded by the electoral college system makes all of these opinion polls unreliable in trying to determine the US election outcome, therefore this analysis is focused on key events that impact on determining a probable forecast for the US presidential election 2012.


The time-line of key events begins with Romney's infamous own goal 47% video that resulted in a near collapse of Romney's poll ratings which set the scene for a virtual walk in the park re-election for President Obama who had always been the favourite, as long as he did not make the mistake of taking the voters for granted.

"There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it. That, that's an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what."

3rd October - Romney Wins the First Presidential Debate

President Obama turned out to be his worst enemy by following what was clearly disastrous advice and handing Romney a decisive win and an actual chance at the White House as polls started to narrow.

6th October - US Employment Rescue, Obama reelection virtually guaranteed

If there is one issue that ranks highest amongst most of the electorate than that would be Jobs. Therefore Obama averted possible election disaster by the BLS publishing a highly favourable employment report for September that showed the US unemployment rate falling below 8% to 7.8% for the first time in some 45 months, against which Romney was left to make statements that did not stand up to scrutiny as the below unemployment record graph shows that there was little Romney could say that could counter Obama's Jobs performance that followed the Bush economic disaster.

The unemployment data halted the momentum that had been building following the first debate. This led me to conclude at the time that rather than the race being as tight as the mainstream pundits were suggesting as they mistakenly were extrapolating the Romney momentum all the way into election day, and despite two debates pending, President Obama was still heading for a relatively strong re-election victory of over 300 electoral votes (270 needed to win) as I correctly concluded the Romney momentum had ended, and that it had never actually seen Romney take an actual lead over Obama at any point.

06 Oct 2012 - High U.S. Unemployment Rate, Obama Failure or Bush Catastrophe for Romney to Continue?

Therefore many american's may be surprised on election night when the results start coming in that point to a relatively strong Obama election win of more than 300 Electoral votes.

Can October Jobs Report Help Romney?

The October Jobs report is due just 4 days before the election (November 2nd), if it is very bad then yes it could help Romney, just as a good jobs report helped Obama. But the election momentum continues in Obama's as is the overall down-trend in the official unemployment data.

However as my analysis of 6th October stated, the trend in US unemployment is likely to rise into mid 2013, this is due to the level of corruptness in reported employment statistics against real US unemployment (U6) that the below graph illustrates -

An analysis of the rate of corruption suggests that

a. the Bush regime during the last 3 years of it's Presidency was engaged in maximising the level of corruption in the official unemployment statistics.

b. That the Obama regime official statistics have in the lead up to the 2012 Election increasingly become more corrupt with the final statistics on par with that of the Bush regimes efforts in the lead up to the November 2008 election.

Therefore whilst the real rate of unemployment is reducing as both graphs exhibit a downtrend, the actual extent of the fall in unemployment is far less than the official statistics suggests, which luckily for Obama is that which most of the general population focuses upon.

Therefore probability favours a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate as will be reported on the Friday ahead of the Tuesday election. The big question mark is to what extent could that figure rise, Obama is hoping for a marginal rise to 7.9%, and Romney for a rate at above 8%, my expectation is for a marginal rise to 7.9% under the basis that the U.S. economy continues to bounce into election as evidenced by latest GDP data of 2% per annum.

16nd October - Aggressive Obama Wins 2nd Presidential debate.

Obama sought to avert a reply of the disaster of the first debate and in so doing put the poll trajectory back in his favour as the gap between Romney and Obama once more starts to widen.

22nd October - Third Presidential Election Debate - Romney's Failure.

Most viewers and commentators would give Obama a slight edge over Romney in the third and final debate, his last chance to build momentum, instead Romney tried hard to appear a man of peace after having made a string of statements in the past that alluded to an aggressive foreign policy and Obama focused on domestic reasons for why he should be re-elected. In fact the whole debate stands out for the continuous statements of agreement on subject after subject which ultimately favoured Obama and hence fed the trend for a widening in the gap between Obama and Romney. Therefore Romney blew his last chance towards building momentum so the strategy for agreeing with Obama was a mistake.

So whilst all eyes are on misleading highly erroneous opinion polls that give the illusion of a close race, and on which way Ohio goes, as things stand my forecast remains for President Obama to be re-elected on November 6th with the probability favouring more than 300 electoral votes i.e. there has been no net change since the release of September jobs report as the trend continues to build towards Obama increasing the real events based gap between himself and Mitt Romney by election day, enough to push through the 300 barrier, with or without Ohio and even a bad October Jobs report of a rate above 8% (I expect 7.9%), will not have enough time behind it to create enough momentum to make much impact at such a late stage.

The bottom line is that Romney failed to re-ignite the momentum that built up following he first debate that was halted by the 6th October Unemployment report, instead his performance during subsequent debates has been weaker than Obama's and therefore the election really was lost by Mitt Romney during mid September following the 47% video, which crippled his chance of ever taking the lead as I correctly suggested at the time (19 Sep 2012 - The Day Mitt Romney Lost the U.S. Presidential Election 2012, Youtube Fund Raising Video).

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37226.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2012 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook DownloadThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook DownloadThe Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Download

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Steve_F
29 Oct 12, 07:53
Micky Mouse Can Beat Obama

I can't disagree with you strongly enough...current polling has skewed democrat party representation by as high as 9 percentage point differential and as low as 4%. The difference in polling population statistics means a weighted skewing of numbers in favor of Obama.

Yet, the real story continues to go unreported: The Opposition is motivated and will turn out in higher numbers than the 2008 election numbers being used as the baseline for current polls. Furthermore, the 2010 election results were not a fluke, and turnout will probably be higher than estimated, because more people, today, are against Obama's policies than they were in 2010.

I've been saying for well over a year that Obama is done. Mickey Mouse could beat the guy. Get real.

Steven F.


JohnyLo
29 Oct 12, 08:56
More wishfull thinking than good analysis...

I must confess my disappointment with this analysis.

I am well aware of how jealous folks around the world are of the USA, in particular Europe where socialist policies have resulted in complete and utter failure of economies and total corruption by individuals, bankers and governments at all levels (local, national and EU). Nothing would please Europe more than to see America fail and the way to materialize that failure is through another 4 years of the Obama marxist class warfare agenda. Obama is only too happy to shift the balance of power to the UN and its slimmy banana republics.

What surprises me i this analysis it how much of it is actually your wishfull thinking, rather than the usual well thought out data based analystics.

The Obama administration is failure in motion, from the czars that control public policy and regulations, to the State Department that is cutting deals with the enemy, to an Energy Dept that works agains the needs of the population, to an education dept that is more interested in pushing politics starting in grade 4 and 5, to their control of the media to push all sorts of propaganda as if it were reality, to the criminal fraudulent unions that work with the government to find ways to get dead people to vote in Chicago, Boston, Philly, Washington, NYC, LA, etc...

The Obama administration tag line 'forward' is a perfect analogy to what they are doing. Put blinders on people, aim them in the direction of a small group of wealthy people and declare them to be the enemy. All whilst it is the Obama administration that is reaching in people's back pockets and robbing them blind. Perfect scam relying on redirect of attention. In the meantime, pay people off with more and more benefits. Every person being paied beenfits also comes off the roles of hose willing to work and that helps the unemployement #s. Multiple millions of people suddenly realized they can go on federal government ddisability.

The obama administration is perpetrating treason against the US. This is what history will show.

For sake of the USA and the last bastion of free thinking and free markets (even with its flaws) I will vote for Romney and look forward to a total and definitive defeat of the anti-America, anti-free speech, anti-entrepeneurship, anti-freedom movement of the marxists obamaites.


Nadeem_Walayat
29 Oct 12, 09:17
Election Data

Hi

The purpose of this article is to arrive at the most probable outcome, if I thought a Romney win was more probable I would have stated so.

The only data has been the October 6th Unemployment report and the recent GDP data, both Obama positive.

The rest is sentitment on the basis of debates performance.

The truth is Obama vs Romney will make LITTLE difference as a close look at the republican regimes actions vs rheteroic of the past 30 years illustrates.

Afterall it was Reganomics that set the train wreck in motion.

A Romney presidency would end with the same debt dynamics as a Obama presidency. The same holds true for the UK, which I warned in June 2010 that the Coaltion would not cut the deficit or debt and instead result in near exactly the same debt dynamics of Labour had won, and so it is coming to pass.

Best

NW


despe906
30 Oct 12, 20:33
America vs the rest

"I am well aware of how jealous folks around the world are of the USA".

Yes we are jealous. Despite the fact that:

The best cars come from Italy

The best wine comes from France

The best music comes from UK

The best machinery comes from Germany

The best computers come from Taiwan

The best cameras come from Japan

The best vodka comes from Russia

and that Europeans are the most educated people in the world

while USA has to offer :

Wars all over the globe

Dell computers and monitors with blown capacitors

HP laptops with faulty motherboards

Coca Cola

Ugly and talentless Lady Gaga

Microsoft

Sitcoms and popcorn

Moon landing made in Hollywood

PS

Hurricane Sandy is helping Obama re-election.


Forrest_Lane
01 Nov 12, 18:39
American Political Circus

Yes, on the one hand the show that is going on in the US at the moment while being pompously sold as the 2012 presidential election can be summarized in this brief piece of political satire in rhymes:

Welcome To The Circus

Hey, folks everywhere,

Do you see flashing spotlights?

Bread and circuses are all you need,

Is that right? Forget all your reason,

Join the show’s new season. Don’t dawdle -

It will be sold-out tonight

The house is all gaudy

Tightly packed with the herd

Docile, if not happy, not giving the bird

But pensively choosing between

The two options - between

A giant douche and a sandwich with turd

The lights here are brightest

But it’s hard to distinguish

Those two little puppets jerking on stage

Both lie as they breath in the deadliest contest

To seize for a fortnight

The lead role in a cage

Their attires fit them nicely

The crowd is happy

No one seems to regard the question of springs

But for both the clowns NASCAR suits would

Be better - so that it could be seen

Who are pooling the strings

On the other hand, if it’s true that two major factions of the financial elite which is behind these clowns have recently split up over the question of regional currency areas, each one supports its own candidate, and their agendas in respect of this critical issue prove to be different, the implications of the ongoing pantomime may be more serious than it seems.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules