Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Will UK Interest Rate Rises Crash House Prices? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Full on Crash Alert for Major World Stock Markets... - Clive_Maund
3.Gold And Silver Market Bottoming? Big Rally Imminent? Reality Check Says NO - Michael_Noonan
4.The Coming Silver Price Rally Will Outperform All Previous Ones - Hubert_Moolman
5.The Trigger For The Upcoming Stock Crash - Harry_Dent
6.Imploding Department Store Results - James_Quinn
7.Dr. Copper is Speaking, are you Listening? ... - Rambus_Chartology
8.Pandemonium in the Stock Market, Dow falls 1,000 points in a week - EWI
9.Asia's Whirling Dervish of Devaluations Has Encircled China's Exports - Keith_Hilden
10.China Weakens the Yuan; Rattles Global Stock and Financial Markets - Gary_Dorsch
Last 5 days
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Market Fluctuations - 28th Aug 15
China's Yuan Devaluation: Why It Was "Expected" - 28th Aug 15
Stocks Go Nuts But the Question Remains – Will the Rally Stick? - 28th Aug 15
Fed’s Stock Market Levitation is Failing - 28th Aug 15
The Eight Energy Systems Driving The Stock Market Rout - 28th Aug 15
Silver Sold, then Squeezed - 28th Aug 15
U.S. Economic Fundamentals 'Look Good' - Bullard of St. Louis Fed - 28th Aug 15
Stock Market Margin Calls Mount - 28th Aug 15
Einstein, Physics, Gold and The Formula To End Economic Decay - 28th Aug 15
The 10 Best Stocks for Options Trading Plays in This Market - 28th Aug 15
Economics of a Stock Market Crash - 28th Aug 15
Currency Wars Detonate; Gold Refuses to Budge - 28th Aug 15
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Record, Trending Towards Becoming a Catastrophe - 28th Aug 15
The Ultimate Cash-Management Guide - 27th Aug 15
Why a Fed Rate Hike Could Be a Blessing for Gold Prices - 27th Aug 15
Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy - 27th Aug 15
Stock Market Trend & Trade Signal Of the Decade - 27th Aug 15
Keep Your Eye On the Gold and Silver Bear - 27th Aug 15
Refugees Expose Europe’s Lack Of Decency - 27th Aug 15
How to Profit from China's Currency War - 27th Aug 15
How China's Currency Policies Will Change the World - 27th Aug 15
Chinese Medicine not Impressing Dr Copper - 27th Aug 15
Novel Biotech Novel Technology Platforms with Dramatic Growth Potential - 27th Aug 15
China Stocks Bear Market Crash, Are We Near the Bottom Yet? - 27th Aug 15
Stock Market Crash Black Wednesday Rally Crushes the Bears - 26th Aug 15
VIX Shorts Being Squeezed While SPX Prepares for Another Decline - 26th Aug 15
Why China's Economy is Deteriorating - 26th Aug 15
Citizenship as a Weapon: Travel Controls and What You Can Do About It - 26th Aug 15
Gold and Silver - How To Manipulate a Market - 26th Aug 15
How to Make a Quick 20% When the Stock Market Crashes - 26th Aug 15
Why We Can’t Handle A Stocks Bear Market - State Budgets Will Implode - 26th Aug 15
Stocks Bear Market, Is This 1929 All Over Again? - 26th Aug 15
The One Trading Strategy You Needed for Stock Market Crash - 26th Aug 15
Second Chance To Buy Cheap Gold Mining Stocks - 25th Aug 15
Gold Facts and Gold Speculations - 25th Aug 15
The Stock Market Crash Season is Here… - 25th Aug 15
Liftoff Setback Leads to U.S. Dollar Pullback - 25th Aug 15
The Stock Markets Are Extraordinarily Volatile, Here's What to Do - 25th Aug 15
Israel: The Case Against Attacking Iran - 25th Aug 15
Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Oil Meeting - 25th Aug 15
How to Calmly Weather This Stock Market Downturn - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Sound the Alarm - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Meltdown - Dow Monday 1000 Point Crash then Rebound, What's Next? - 25th Aug 15
El-Erian: Stock Market Sell off Is Not 1998 or 2008 - 25th Aug 15
Gold the Ultimate Financial Crisis Insurance - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Black Monday Crash Fizzles Out, Next Black Tuesday? - 25th Aug 15
Black Monday - Rolling A Wheelbarrow Of Dynamite Into A Crowd Of Fire Jugglers - 24th Aug 15
Playing the Chinese Trump Card - 24th Aug 15
Gold and Silver: Heading for a “Blue Screen of Death” Event? - 24th Aug 15
Japan Economy Clear Conclusions Concerning QE - 24th Aug 15
Stock Market Blockbuster Right From the Open... - 24th Aug 15
Silver And The Petrodollar - 24th Aug 15
Why the Stock Market Sell-Off Happened – and How to Make Money on It - 24th Aug 15
Stocks Correct, Panic Ensues. The End Of The World? - 24th Aug 15
Stock Market - The Sky IS Falling - 24th Aug 15
SP500, DAX, FTSE - When Stock Markets Talk, Pay Attention - 24th Aug 15
Stock Market Black Monday - Full Crash Alert! - 24th Aug 15
Stock Markets Implode as China Literally Explodes - 23rd Aug 15
Stock Market Bloodbath - The Feds Gonna Need A Bigger Balance Sheet - 23rd Aug 15
Stock Market Due For A Breather (But More To Go) - 23rd Aug 15
Stock Market 20% Bear Market in the Works - 23rd Aug 15
Ankara: the New Capital of Jihad, U.S. Policy for Strengthening ISIS - 23rd Aug 15
Will Rising Interest Rates Crash UK House Prices? - Video - 23rd Aug 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Global Stocks Slide

Economic Signs That Deflation is Far From Over

Economics / Deflation Dec 20, 2012 - 01:24 AM GMT

By: EWI

Economics

The federal government defines the Producer Price Index (PPI) as "the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output."

With help from the Federal Reserve's massive inflationary policies, the PPI has climbed even as the economy began to fall in 2008-09.


All the while, the financial media persisted with stories of an economic recovery. EWI analysts offer an independent perspective.

The New York Times declares, "Economic Gloom Starting to Lift."

Corporate America, however, is not so sure. This chart of producer prices [wave labels removed] probably illustrates why. After years of largely uninterrupted growth, the Producer Price Index appears to be on the cusp of a critical reversal that should turn into a steady decline in wholesale prices.

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, December, 2012

The latest Financial Forecast published Dec. 7, and the latest evidence reinforces the message of the chart's title. The PPI elevator has already descended to a lower floor.

The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted producer price index slipped 0.8 percent last month, the second straight decline.

November's drop in wholesale prices was the sharpest since May.

Reuters, Dec. 13

The Producer Price Index decline is happening in tandem with a notable reversal in consumer sentiment.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading of the overall index on consumer sentiment plunged to 74.5 in early December, the lowest level since August.

It was far below November's figure of 82.7.

Reuters, Dec. 13

The Federal Reserve's machinations -- which includes the Dec. 12 announcement of $45-billion in monthly Treasury bond purchases -- will not stave off a developing deflationary trend.

In the second edition of Conquer the Crash (p. 114), Robert Prechter describes what generally happens, depending on the position of the Elliott waves, near the end of the Kondratieff cycle.

Near the end of the cycle, the rates of change in business activity and inflation slip to zero. When they fall below zero, deflation is in force. As liquidity contracts, commodity prices fall more rapidly, and prices for stocks, wages and wholesale and retail goods join in the decline. When deflation ends and prices reach bottom, the cycle begins again.

How much farther does the economic cycle have to go before it reaches the bottom? Is the bottom even in sight? The answers can be found in Prechter's Conquer the Crash and it can even help you prepare for the coming changes.

For a limited time, you can get part of Conquer the Crash for free. See below for more details.


8 Chapters of Conquer the Crash -- FREE

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Two Signs That Deflation is Far From Over. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History