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UK Interest Rates Expected to be Kept on Hold at 5.25%

Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates Mar 06, 2008 - 02:43 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Interest-Rates Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England is expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 5.25% at today's MPC meeting despite economic data confirming a weakening housing market and economy. Rates were last cut in February 08, which was inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008 , following the US Panic rate cut of 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5%, which was later followed by a further 0.5% cut to take US interest rates to 3%.


Two further cuts in UK interest rates towards the forecast of 4.75% are most probably likely to occur in May and August 2008. The previous Market Oracle forecast as of Dec 06 was for a Peak in UK interest rates at 5.75% by September 2007.

Despite the recent up tick in inflation, the overall down trend remains inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of November 2007 as illustrated by the above graph, with peaks in the inflation rates having occurred during early 2007. However current consensus forecasts (Bloomberg) are for UK inflation as measured by the CPI index to rise to 3.1% this year on the back of rising energy and food costs.

Market Oracle Track Record of Calling Monthly Interest Rate Decisions

Month
Market Oracle Forecast
Actual MPC Decision
Outcome
No Change
Pending
-
0.25% Cut
0.25% Cut
No Pre-call
No Change
-
0.25% Cut
0.25% Cut
No Change
No Change
No Change
No Change
No Pre-call
No Change
-
No Change
No Change
0.25% Increase
0.25% Increase
No Change
No Change
0.25% Increase
0.25% Increase
Apr 07
No Pre-call
No Change
-
Mar 07
No Pre-call
No Change
-
0.25% Increase
No Change
0.25% Increase
0.25% Increase
No Pre-call
No Change
-
0.25% Increase
0.25% Increase
Overall Rate Forecast Accuracy
91%

 

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 120 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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