Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Dangerous Myths About Rising U.S. Treasury Bond Yields

Interest-Rates / US Bonds Aug 21, 2013 - 05:44 PM GMT

By: EWI

Interest-Rates

Myth 1 of 3: Bond Yields Are Rising Due to the Fed's Insinuation at Tapering

Editor's note: The following article is the first in a series of three, reprinted with permission from market-leading financial forecasting firm Elliott Wave International. To read the full three-part report now, follow this link and download it for free


The consensus is that yields began to rise on or around May 22, also known as Bernanke Day. That was the day when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to hint at tapering the Fed's $85-billion-per-month bond-buying program.

In reality, the rise in U.S. Treasury note rates actually began a year ago, back in mid-2012 - when yields on the 10-year note and 30-year bond stood at all-time record lows.

At the time, the raft of negative news coming out of the U.S. and Europe all but assured a rush into the perceived safety of U.S. Treasuries, as these news items from the time make plain:

"The US government is a big winner... [We] don't see any catalysts in the near-term to push yields higher as there is just so much ambiguity in the euro zone that keeps investors nervous." (WSJ, June 24, 2012)

"There's virtually no floor to how low yields go... I don't think we're going back to a level reflecting higher inflation or growth prospects for a long time." (CNN Money, June 1, 2012)

"Money is fleeing every place in the world and then coming here. The path of least resistance is to lower yields." (Bloomberg, July 23, 2012)

Yet, as this chart of 10-year Treasury notes shows - the floor for yields was actually laid in July 2012.

Before Bernanke Day, there was no fundamental reason for yields to start rising; inflation was low and economic activity was sluggish. By the time the majority of investors woke up to the silent uptrend that had long since started, the value of bonds had fallen.

In June 2012, Elliott Wave Theorist Editor and EWI President Robert Prechter teamed up with the editors of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast for a first-ever special 10-page bonds report. Yields had been in a 31-year downtrend, and record amounts of money were flowing into bond funds. The analysis presented was quite contrary, and the title of the report did not mince words:

Major Top in the Bond Market:
Bond Yields are Poised to Begin Rising

On page six:

"The question is - When will rates begin rising? We think the answer is 'now.' Evidence is rapidly mounting that the trend in interest rates on high-grade debt is poised to reverse."

Among the key pieces of evidence cited in the report, here are two:

"As shown, the latest drop in yield has traced out five waves into Friday's new low as bond futures hit a new all-time high. This plunge in rates should mark at least a bottom and probably the bottom."

"The Commitment of Traders report shows that Large Speculators have been heavily invested in T-bond futures. Large Specs are not always wrong, but they are usually wrong when they follow the trend. The asterisks show times when their buying or selling was in concert with the trend, and in those cases the market was approaching a reversal."

In the end, the message from The Elliott Wave Theorist/The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast June 2012 special report was clear:

"The bull market in the bond market is aged and ripe for a reversal. Generally speaking, if you are invested in long-term debt, sell it."

The word "taper" was never mentioned in the entire piece.

*****

This article is the first in a series of three, reprinted with permission from market-leading financial forecasting firm Elliott Wave International. To read the full three-part report, 3 Dangerous Myths About Rising Bond Yields, follow this link and download it for free.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in