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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Damaged, Bulls Back on the Defensive

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Sep 15, 2013 - 11:24 AM GMT

By: Toby_Connor

Commodities

As I mentioned in my last post there is a disturbing possibility that gold's intermediate cycle has topped, and done so in a left translated manner. For clarification, left translated cycles often lead to lower lows. In this case if gold did top on week 9 and the intermediate cycle is now in decline, then the odds are high we are going to see the June low of $1179 tested and broken before the next intermediate bottom.


Whenever I'm not sure about direction the first thing I do is go to the weekly charts. You can see in the three charts below that the Thursday premarket hit did serious damage to the entire sector.

Just based on those three charts the sector is screaming that an intermediate top has formed. At the very least I think one has to wait until these three weekly charts are repaired before risking further long exposure to the sector. Keep in mind I'm not recommending selling short, the daily cycle is due to bounce soon, probably on the FOMC statement. But there is a strong possibility that bounce will be a fake out to drawn in another round of buyers only to reverse and head back down again.

I continue to think this is a high stakes game where big money insiders are trying to lower the starting point before the bubble phase of the gold bull begins. As I've noted before if one can artificially lower the beginning of the bubble phase to let's say $1000 instead of where it naturally occurred last summer at $1550, then the profit potential once the bubble phase begins is dramatically magnified.

I'm convinced the force behind this is trying to drive gold back down to the prior C-wave top at $1030 before reversing course and riding the bubble phase of gold into a top somewhere above $5000. It remains to be seen if they will accomplish their goal, but they did succeed in forcing gold back below the critical $1350 support level on Thursday's premarket hit.


At this point the bulls are back on the defensive. They have to at the very least recover that $1350 level before they have any chance at repairing those weekly charts.

    I invite you to consider a $10 trial one month subscription to my daily and weekend reports. The topics covered (with charts) include analysis of the precious metals, miners, stock market, currencies, bonds, the Fed, sentiment and cycles.

    Toby Connor

    Gold Scents  

    GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market.   Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers.  If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions,email Toby.

    © 2013 Copyright Toby Connor - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Toby Connor Archive

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