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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Looking for a Bounce in the “ten-year” U.S. Treasury Note

Interest-Rates / US Bonds Oct 01, 2013 - 07:08 PM GMT

By: Ed_Carlson

Interest-Rates

TNX is the symbol for the interest rate on the ten-year, US Treasury note. One observation which has kept me from getting bullish about TNX (despite the break out above the long-term trendline) is the level of the red line in the chart below. The red line represents the distance between TNX and its 200 day moving average.  Since last July it has far exceeded its highs at past tops in TNX (which is probably long-term bullish) but, not only did that level appear stretched, but it failed to confirm the higher highs in TNX seen in August and September.


Figure 1

Now that TNX has dropped back below the trendline and its 200-dma volatility band has dropped back to the old level of resistance, I expect a bottom and I think last Friday was it. TNX exhibits a number of – not cycles – but closer to what George Lindsay called “intervals of equidistance”. These intervals appear to be pointing to a change in trend last Friday.

Figure 2

Request your free copy of the Special Report: Gold, now it gets interesting at Seattle Technical Advisors

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2013 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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