Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stocks Bull Market Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Oct 21, 2013 - 09:47 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

After gapping down three of the five trading days, which were mostly bought before 10AM, and two gap up openings, the SPX closed at all time new highs. The DOW ended the week about 300 points from its all time high, and the NDX/NAZ are still a long way from their 2000 all time high. Nevertheless it has been a bull market since March 2009. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.75%, the NDX/NAZ were +3.45%, and the DJ World index was +2.50%. Economics reports were again sparse, as the government remained partially closed until the last hour “let’s do it again in February” agreement was made midweek. For the week negative reports outpaced positive ones 4 to 3. On the uptick: the monetary base and the M1 multiplier, plus weekly jobless claims were lower. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, the NAHB housing index, and the WLEI. Next week, with reporting hopefully back to normal we should get the Payrolls report, Consumer sentiment and some Housing reports. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: it is still a bull market

For the past several weeks we have been reporting on a trifurcation between the major indices: NDX rallying, DOW lagging, and SPX caught in the middle. This continued this week, as investors have chased growth while shunning cyclicals. The SPX clearly has both. Last weekend, in an attempt to sort out the current wave count of this bull market we offered three potential counts. They are posted in the Long Term section of that report: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/10/12/weekend-update-418/. After much deliberation, analysis, discussion and observation, we have decided to upgrade one of the counts to most probable while leaving the other two as alternates.

The reasons for this upgrade is that it offers a better perspective of what it going on in the market right now, and it displays wave alternation in the DOW between Major waves 2 and 4. While Major wave 4 in the SPX appears to be simple and quite short. Major wave 4 of Primary I was also simple and quite short compared to its Major wave 2. After the count adjustments the SPX weekly, (and most important), chart remains unchanged. But the daily and hourly charts have been upgraded to reflect the details of that count. This count suggests, both the SPX and DOW are still in Primary III.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We label the medium term trend UP as the SPX/NDX/NAZ have been uptrending for some time. The DOW, however, has a bit more upside action to go to confirm its uptrend. It is on a slightly different count as previously noted. We maintain the Major wave 3 high at SPX 1710, and Major 4 low at SPX 1627. However, from that point on we are counting this uptrend as either five Intermediate waves I-ii-iii-iv-v, or an ending a-b-c-d-e diagonal triangle. When this rally ends, and wave iv unfolds we should know if it is a 4 or a d wave. Then when this uptrend concludes it should end Major wave 5 and Primary wave III.

The DOW has a much simpler count for its potential uptrend, as Major wave 4 bottomed this month. We are expecting its advance to be a simple one similar to the last two uptrends. When it concludes Major wave 5 and Primary wave III should end here too.

Medium term support is at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1730 and the 1699 pivot, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1721.

Under this short term count we had a 103 point advance from wave i/a, a steep 84 point decline for wave ii/b, and now a 99 point advance, (thus far), for wave iii/c. With the steep wave ii/b decline the SPX would have to rally quite a bit to avoid overlapping wave i/a during the upcoming wave iv/d decline. Since we have a fairly solid resistance pivot ahead at SPX 1779, thus far, it would suggest a diagonal triangle ending the Major wave 5. Should the SPX clear the seven point pivot range, then the diagonal scenario is not likely to come into play. Keep in mind we are still in a bull market. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher gaining 0.7%.

The European market were all higher gaining 2.5%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 3.0%

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 2.5%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend gaining 0.7% on the week.

Crude remains in a downtrend losing 0.9% on the week.

Gold is trying to establish an uptrend and gained 3.4% on the week.

The USD is still downtrending and lost 1.0% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Existing home sales at 10AM. Tuesday: the monthly Payrolls report. Wednesday: Export/Import prices and the FHFA index. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and New home sales. Friday: Durable goods orders and Consumer sentiment. Nothing on the schedule for the FED this week. Not that they have been reporting anything during the shutdown. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2013 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules