Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Paving the Way for Massive First Strike on North Korea Nuclear and Missile Infrastructure - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Trump Reset: US War With China, North Korea Nuclear Flashpoint - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Silver Junior Mining Stocks 2017 Q2 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
4.Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The Bitcoin Blueprint To Your Financial Freedom - Sean Keyes
6.North Korea 'Begging for War', 'Enough is Enough', is a US Nuclear Strike Imminent? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Hits All-Time High and Smashes Through $5,000 As Gold Shows Continued Strength - Jeff_Berwick
8.2017 is NOT "Just Another Year" for the Stock Market: Here's Why - EWI
9.Gold : The Anatomy of the Bottoming Process - Rambus_Chartology
10.Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Stock Market Time to Go All-in. Short, That Is - 19th Oct 17
How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War - 19th Oct 17
Stock Market Super Cycle Wave C May Have Started - 19th Oct 17
Negative Expectations, Will the Stock Market Correct? - 19th Oct 17
Knowing the Factors Affect your Car Insurance Premium - 19th Oct 17
Getting Your Feet Wet In Crypto Currencies - 19th Oct 17
10 Years Ago Today a Stocks Bear Market Started - 19th Oct 17
1987 Stock Market Crash 30th Anniversary Greatest Investing Lesson Learned - 19th Oct 17
Virgin Media Broadband Down, Catastrophic UK Wide Failure! - 19th Oct 17
The Passive Investing Bubble May Trigger A Massive Exodus from Stocks - 18th Oct 17
Gold Is In A Dangerous Spot - 18th Oct 17
History Says Global Debt Levels Will Lead to Another Crisis - 18th Oct 17
Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money - 18th Oct 17
Attractive European Countries for Foreign Investors - 18th Oct 17
Financial Transcription Services – What investors should know about them - 18th Oct 17
Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures - 18th Oct 17
Surge in UK Race Hate Crimes, Micro-Racism, Sheffield, Millhouses Park, Black on Asian - 18th Oct 17
Comfortably Numb: Surviving the Assault on Silver - 17th Oct 17
Are Amey Street Tree Felling's Devaluing Sheffield House Prices? - 17th Oct 17
12 Real-Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now - 17th Oct 17
Warren Buffett Predicting Dow One Million - Being Bold Or Overly Cautious? - 17th Oct 17
Globalization is Poverty - 17th Oct 17
Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Trading Dow Theory - 16th Oct 17
Stocks Slightly Higher as They Set New Record Highs - 16th Oct 17
Why is Big Data is so Important for Casino Player Acquisition and Retention - 16th Oct 17
How Investors Can Play The Bitcoin Boom - 16th Oct 17
Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief - And Why It Matters  - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Only Minor Top Ahead - 16th Oct 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 16th Oct 17
Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target - 16th Oct 17
The Bullish Chartology for Gold - 15th Oct 17
Wikileaks Mocking US Government Over Bitcoin Shows Why There Is No Stopping Bitcoin - 15th Oct 17
How to Wipe Out Puerto Rico's Debt Without Hurting Bondholders - 15th Oct 17
Gold And Silver – Think Prices Are Manipulated? Look In The Mirror! - 15th Oct 17
Q4 Pivot View for Stocks and Gold - 14th Oct 17
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’17 Preview - 14th Oct 17
U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales and VIX Point To Increased Market Volatility and Higher Gold - 14th Oct 17
Yuan and Gold - 14th Oct 17
Tips for Avoiding a Debt Meltdown - 14th Oct 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Above $5,000 As Lagarde Concedes Defeat and Jamie Demon Shuts Up - 13th Oct 17
Golden Age for GOLD, Dark Age for the Stock Market - 13th Oct 17
The Struggle for Bolivia Is About to Begin - 13th Oct 17
3 Reasons to Take Your Invoicing Process Mobile - 13th Oct 17
What Happens When Amey Fells All of a Streets Trees (Sheffield Tree Fellings) - Video - 13th Oct 17
Stock Market Charts Show Smart Money And Dumb Money Are Moving In Opposite Directions—Here’s Why - 12th Oct 17
Your Pension Is a Lie: There’s $210 Trillion of Liabilities Our Government Can’t Fulfill - 12th Oct 17
Two Highly Recommended Books from Bob Prechter - 12th Oct 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Bitcoin Price Crash Towards Zero? The Ponzi Scheme Bubble Plays Out as Designed

Currencies / Bitcoin Dec 07, 2013 - 02:27 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

The Bitcoin price last traded at USD 790 (this morning) which represents a 37% price crash against its trading high of 1242, vaporising the wild dreams of just a few days ago where some reported that the virtual money could be destined to go as high as 1 million! Whilst never realising the difference between what is virtual and what is real, instead in large part bitcoin pumper's remain in denial as many have been seduced by the golden coin image to imagine that bitcoins and gold are the same or similar when the reality is the exact opposite. Bitcoins is fairy dust, it is perceived as being very valuable but a small gust of reality is enough to make it disappear.


Bitcoins is DESIGNED to play out as a ponzi scheme bubble to enrich those that created it as they mined over a million bitcoins (current 12.1mln bitcoins) relatively easily (initially low processing power required), with future supply increasingly limited as much greater processing power is required to mine more blocks which coupled with the media frenzy has helped push up the price which the designers and early adopters can offload into and onto unsuspecting fools. This is a ponzi scheme where only the designers and initial miners win hugely, that I suspect will lead to criminal prosecutions.

Meanwhile, over the past 24 hours the blogosfear, mainstream press and the sales men have been busy writing reams of commentary on the bitcoin crash AFTER the event, AFTER the bitcoin crash, and many can be seen floundering like fish out of water as to what direction bitcoins are likely to take going forward as they delve into double speak i.e. implying that the price could continue falling or then again might be a great opportunity to buy, the broadcast news is full of such double speak by the media whores that populate the likes of CNBC, you know who they are!

So whilst the media was painting a picture of bitcoins soaring into the stratosphere, I made it clear in my article of just over a week ago as the bitcoin price homed in on its 1242 high as to why bitcoins were a ponzi scheme destined to collapse and what bitcoin holders should do IMMEDIATLEY.

29 Nov 2013 - Bank of England UK Housing Market Bubble Panic is Mark Carney Playing Game of Thrones

As was the case for the original Tulip Mania, following the bursting of the bubble Bitcoins will soon be forgotten and so will the craze for all peer to peer i-currencies, as the bottom line is that bitcoins never matched the hype for transactions are NOT anonymous and it IS heavily manipulated by a handful of mining pools so is not decentralised as today ordinary people cannot muster the processing power required to mine for bitcoins.

The bottom line is that bitcoins are a pyramid ponzi scheme where those who got in early win, whilst everyone else loses. If you own bitcoins then you should get out IMMEDIATELY!

Here are some mainstream media excerpts of the bitcoin craziness in the run up to the crash.

The Guardian - Is Bitcoin about to change the world?

If you want to buy drugs or guns anonymously online, virtual currency Bitcoin is better than hard cash. Canny speculators have been hoarding it like digital gold. Now the world's leading bankers are even talking about as a rival for real money.

Yahoo Finance - Bitcoin is Heading Toward a New High — and It Could Go to $1 Million

People keep describing this price behavior as "crazy" and "insane," but it's actually not that surprising. Earlier this spring, when Bitcoin was trading at about $90, I "raised my Bitcoin target" to $400. This was an inside joke that referenced an old price target of mine. I don't actually have a Bitcoin target. But I was getting at a more profound point: $400 is a perfectly reasonable target for Bitcoin. As is $1,000. As is $10,000 or $100,000 or $1 million.

Vice.com - Bitcoin Mints Its First Billionaire: Its Inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto

In January of 2009, Satoshi started mining the first crop of bitcoin, creating what is known as the “genesis block.” By year-end, over 32,000 blocks had been added to this original block, producing a total of 1,624,250 bitcoins. Since all transactions are public on the blockchain, we know that only a quarter of those bitcoins have ever changed hands, which means Satoshi is believed to be sitting on a stash of roughly one million bitcoins. With Bitcoin surging past $1000, that stash is worth about $1.1 billion.

Wednesdays price crash was followed early Thursday with my next article that laid out a forecast of how the bitcoin crash would play out over the coming days as the price at the time had recovered strongly from its initial crash to 900 to stand at 1074 at the time.

05 Dec 2013 - Bitcoin Mania Bubble Bursts, China Triggers Price Crash Start, Technical Forecast

What's Next for Bitcoins

A quick technical review of the charts implies that a double top pattern is being formed which is a warning that the bounce from the neckline is not something that bitcoin holders should put much hope into for the price is likely to reverse within days to break the neckline and retrace all the way down to at least 500 (current 1074), which is more than a 50% drop of the last price and a 60% drop from the high.

Longer term my view remains that bitcoins could lose as much as 99% of their value, so following a 60% crash, don't be seduced into the buying opportunity sales pitch that you will hear much about, no matter how hard the price bounces following the crash it will as the bitcoin longer term history illustrates just mark the initial phase of a prolonged price collapse towards 1/99th of its trading high or about 15, at which point even I would consider a speculative buy.

The bitcoin stepped crash with much volatility continues to play out not just towards my technical target of 500 but eventually towards virtually zero as represented by my longer-term objective of just 15, that is 1/99th of its trading high. So understand this that the nightmare for those who continue to hold onto bitcoins is only just beginning, yes the price has crashed by 37%, but it is still stands 37% above its technical target of 500 and has the potential for a 96% loss of its current value should the target of 15 be realised, so this is NOT the time to hold on hopes of recovering back towards the highs as the loss of value sustained could literally be TOTAL! A lesson that all market traders have to learn else they will go bankrupt holding on for price recoveries that always become more distant with each stomach churning lurch to the downside.

For more analysis of why bitcoins is crashing do read my two recent articles on bitcoins

Charts courtesy of http://bitcoincharts.com

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43454.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2013 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Yuriy
11 Dec 13, 10:30
fix or tracker

Hi Nadeem,

you suggested to fix our mortgages immediately.

Would you recommend to stay on 5 year tracker or 5 year fixed products? One has to pay around 0.3% premium for fix.

Thank you in advance


Nadeem_Walayat
12 Dec 13, 01:55
Mortgage Fix or Tracker

If it where me I would fix.

That way I can get on with making money rather wasting time watching the tracker osciliate around interest rates.

But do remember I am ANTI-DEBT. Personally I would always go without then borrow a penny, unless its for stoozing :)

Best

NW


paulmathers
27 Dec 13, 13:25
bitcoin challange

Dear Nadeem

A rare occasion where I think you've got it wrong. Care to take my $100 challenge? http://paulmathersblog.wordpress.com/2013/12/12/bitcoin-ftw/

Happy Christmas!

Paul Mathers


Nadeem_Walayat
27 Dec 13, 13:54
Bitcoin gamble

Hi

I don't gamble I take calculated risks, I said what i would do which is to buy bitcoins at 15. That is the risk reward that would get me a positiona and that is what Market Oracle is all about, not gambling.

If bitcoin never gets anywhere near 15 then I have no position, no loss, but if I take your bet then I could lose $100. The risk vs reward is bad. It's a gamble!

To trade the price collapse I would have shorted it from above 1100 and then moved the stop to break-even and then locked in a small profit, and then cashed in on the plunge- that's how I would trade bitcoins IF it had a tradeble tight spread market, that's how I traded past crashes such as stocks in 1987 - not take a 50/50 MASSIVE SPREAD bet of $2000 or $15 for $100 that is a bad behaviour pattern to imprint.

Ofcourse bitcoins is a ponzi scheme, I could create my own ! and make it even more enticing to investors as it would be backed by the MO site ! But I won't for obvious reasons.

And ofcourse the bitcoin market is manipuated by a few small pools THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS TO ALL MARKETS!!!! ALL MARKETS ARE MANIPULATED! Teh first step to understanding where markets are going to go is to understand this fundemental fact that all markets are manipulated!

I understand it is very easy to get sucked into bubbles afterall that is what happened during the dot com bubble, but people buying at $900 are going to regret buying big time.

All the Best

NW


paulmathers
08 Jan 14, 17:37
bitcoin challange

It was more a friendly wager Nadeem.

The fact that you can create a crypto currency yourself does not make it a Ponzi scheme. Confidence in your coins only comes by them being operated by a democratic network viz-a-viz bitcoin.

I still maintain that the greatest ponzi scheme of all is fiat currency as explained on my blog. This has recently been supported by reports in the newspapers such as http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nigel-farage-would-rather-uk-was-poorer-fewer-migrants-1431315

Best

Paul M


Nadeem_Walayat
08 Jan 14, 21:14
Fiat Currency

Yes, fiat currency is a ponzi scheme the cost of which manifests itself in inflation and ultimately hyperinflationary collapse that ALL currencies are trending towards.

To imagine bitcoin is any different is a huge mistake. It IS a PONZI just as are all fiat currencies.

For something to be none ponzi it needs to be backed by something physical that cannot be easily printed such as gold or housing stock.

Best

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife