Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Some Traders Hit. Some Traders Miss. Here's How to be Part of the 1st Group - 22nd Nov 17
Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Global Gold Demand to Remain Robust - 22nd Nov 17
Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks - 22nd Nov 17
Harry Dent’s Gold Prediction Invalidated - 22nd Nov 17
Gold Sector is On a Long-term Buy Signal - 21st Nov 17
Saudi Arabia and Israeli Alliance Targets Iran - 21st Nov 17
What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 - 21st Nov 17
US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? - 21st Nov 17
Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” - 20th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Strategy, Goals and Realities - 20th Nov 17
Crude Oil – General Market Link - 20th Nov 17
Bitcoin Price Blasts Through $8,000… In Zimbabwe Tops $13,500 As Mugabe Regime Crumbles - 20th Nov 17
Stock Market More Correction Ahead? - 19th Nov 17
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients - 18th Nov 17
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom - 18th Nov 17
Facebook Traders: Tech Giant + Technical Analysis = Thumbs Up - 18th Nov 17
Games Betting System For NCAA Basketball Sports Betting - Know Your Betting Limits - 18th Nov 17
Universal Credit Doomsday for Tax Credits Cash ISA Savers, Here's What to Do - 18th Nov 17
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 - 17th Nov 17
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing - 17th Nov 17
Mystery of Inflation and Gold - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Ready To Pull The Rug Out From Under You! - 17th Nov 17
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 - 17th Nov 17
Play Free Online Games and Save Money Free Virtual Online Games - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Crash Omens & Predictions: Another Day Another Lie - 16th Nov 17
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe - 16th Nov 17
Announcing Free Trader's Workshop: Battle-Tested Tools to Boost Your Trading Confidence - 16th Nov 17
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home - 16th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects - 16th Nov 17
Bonds And Stocks Will Crash Together In The Next Crisis (Meanwhile, Bond Yields Are Going Up) - 16th Nov 17
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near - 16th Nov 17
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - 16th Nov 17
Gold’s Long-term Analogies - 16th Nov 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Traders Workshop

Gold Correction Completing- Bull Market About to Resume

Commodities / Gold & Silver May 11, 2008 - 09:04 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold's corrective phase is believed to be complete, meaning that it is now in position to begin another major uptrend. In the last update, which was about 5 weeks ago, we were looking for it to continue to react back to support in the $830 - $850 area above its 200-day moving average, and that is exactly what it has done.

On the 1-year chart we can see how the fine strong uptrend from last August, which broke down into a 5-wave sequence, culminated in a brief sojourn above the psychologically important $1000 level, accompanied by great fanfare in the press, before a classic 3-wave correction back towards the 200-day moving average set in.


This reaction has brought the price back to a zone of strong support above the rising 200-day moving average, where it remains quite heavily oversold despite last week's rally, as shown by the MACD indicator - a textbook “buy spot”. The convergence of the trendlines bounding the correction indicates a diminution of selling pressure with time, and is therefore bullish.

The sentiment is being expressed in some quarters that gold is unlikely to do much between now and August because seasonally it is a flat time, which presumably implies that it can't go up much because everyone's in vacation mood and off fly fishing or whatever. While this may be an important background consideration in years past, we are no longer living in normal times, as many Wall St professionals found out last August when the general stockmarket caved in, completely oblivious to family vacation priorities. Thus the notion that gold (and other commodities and markets for that matter) is going to hang around until little Johnny and Suzy go back to school in September before it gets moving will likely prove to be ill-founded.

After the rally of the past week or so from the support level traders can adopt two approaches to buying. One is to watch for a near-term retreat back to the support level to buy at better prices - it is thought unlikely that it will drop below about $850, but it could drop back to the lower Wedge support line now near the 200-day moving average. The other is to wait for a clear upside breakout from the Wedge. Although this approach involves paying more, it is safer as the breakout will signal the start of a new uptrend. A third approach of course is to buy now, accepting the (now limited) downside risk.

As gold's reaction since mid-March has synchronized with a relief rally in the dollar, as might be expected, the outlook for the dollar clearly has a crucial bearing on gold's prospects, so we will now examine the dollar charts.

In April we saw a typical example of market chicanery when the dollar index looked like it was forming a down Pennant. On the 1-year chart we can see this Pennant and how it aborted, leading to a weak countertrend rally, which has battled its way through first the falling 50-day moving average and then towards the strong overhead resistance shown, in the process drawing close to the key parabolic resistance shown on the 3-year chart below. The rally from mid-March, far from being a bullish development for the dollar, has opened up a crevasse beneath it, as in addition to the rally being simply a countertrend rally occurring within the context of a severe downtrend, it has resulted in short-term oscillators swinging from an oversold extreme in mid-March into overbought territory, witness the MACD indicator at the bottom of this chart.

The 3-year chart for the dollar reveals that it is accelerating to the downside beneath the constraint of a parabolic dome downtrend. The acceleration to the downside followed the failure of a key long-term support level in the Fall that dated all the way back to the early 90's. This former support level has morphed into a zone of strong overhead resistance. As we can see, the parabolic dome is now not far above the index, meaning that it is unlikely that it will even make it to the first resistance level shown before it turns lower again, and it could break lower almost immediately now. This of course will be great news for gold and silver, which should break out from their current intermediate downtrends to commence their next major uptrend that is expected to take them to new highs.

The underperformance of Precious Metals stocks on the last runup by gold and silver was a source of considerable frustration to holders of these stocks. The good news regarding this for PM stock investors is that the tables are likely to be turned on next sector uptrend. This is because the stocks to gold ratio is close to a cyclical low as can be seen on the accompanying long-term chart for the XAU index relative to the gold price. This chart indicates a strong probability that PM stocks will do much better on the next advance - they should at least match gold and there is a good chance they will outperform. What this means is that those who did well with gold itself during the last runup should consider increasing the weighting in big gold stocks ahead of the next uptrend. Curiously, despite silver outperforming gold in the recent past, big silver stocks have been savaged over the past 6 weeks or so, with the result that their charts have suffered technical damage due to the creation of a supply overhang. This is the reason why we concentrated on taking positions in the large gold stocks on the site over the past week or so, whose charts generally look a lot healthier.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

© 2008 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Smack MacDougal
11 May 08, 11:53
Correction Theories

"Correction Theories" always amuse me.

For any market, the correct price always is the actual price in any moment.

Gold is a commodity. Money is a commodity. Folks swap one for the other. This swap reflects the call for one and the offer of the other.

Calculating this swap ratio yields a value. We call this value a price.

For the price of gold to rise, more money (notes and coins) must offered and spent to buy it than less money offered.

This money must come from somewhere else.

Are new issues of preferred stock falling? Are new issues of commercial paper falling? Are futures contracts for manufacturing inputs falling -- steal, coal, wheat, corn?

Also, are industrial processes that use gold increasing? If so, for how long? Are credit relationships (capital) for manufacturers that use gold increasing?

Drawing squiggly lines on a piece of paper or with a spreadsheet tell you nothing about any future. They might help you see what was the past.

Never do you see chartist fellows mention inflection points where the rate of change (first derivative) gets taken from points on the graph. Only from rate changes can tell what happened.

Drawing averages tells a man nothing, ever. To get an average, you have offsetting events. If you sit on the wrong side of the bigger offsetting event, no average will make you or your wallet feel better.

When a man believes the price of a thing will rise quicker than the prices of all other things and that man puts money up to support his belief, he makes a bet about the future state of the world.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife