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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Stock Market S&P Index MAP Wave Analysis Forecast

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Oct 30, 2014 - 03:08 PM GMT

By: Marc_Horn

Stock-Markets

I have been looking for this for a while.

Over lunch at the Bank of England, Keynes tells Henry Clay of his hopes that Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ can help Britain out of the economic hole it is in: “I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.”11 April 1946


Still today we follow Keynesian economics where he himself shortly before his death felt that his theories were not the solution to our economic woes, but Adam Smiths invisible hand from the 1700’s was more reliable! Yet we persist to follow his economic theories despite his warning as our primary model almost globally!

But then again it suits those in power in our corrupt political systems – keep the people stupid and they are easier to control (rape and pillage would be a better description!) but the end game is always the same – revolution where the elite just change from one group to another. The most successful revolution seems to be the American revolution which has taken some 300 years to totally corrupt! It too will fail and will be replaced.

FACTA is doing everything possible to kill the dollar as the global reserve currency with its attitude of totally ignoring international law and applying the shear fact that you use US dollars for a transaction that they have jurisdiction and they will prosecute you if they feel they want to. The only way people can overcome this is by using anything but the dollar! This in turn is imploding the global economy as Americans find it extremely difficult to open bank accounts outside of the US as they clearly are “tax avoiders” which is killing investment precisely when it is needed!

This is an example of Adam Smith’s invisible hand at work. Politicians cannot overcome their self interest, with FACTA to preserve their incomes and pensions at the cost of the global economy, but in their eyes that will be someone else’s mess to sort out once they leave office!

It is time to dramatically change the political system before it is too late! One assumes that ones representative has a duty of care to push the interest of those who voted them in. But we cannot elect a representative because we are only given a choice by the national parties who have changed the laws so that you cannot choose who you believe will represent your interest. We have failed lawyers running our countries with zero economic experience, supported by economic academics who also would not make it in the real world and also have zero experience! This is like going to a paediatrician if you want brain surgery.

The Euro will collapse because there was not a European debt as the US$ has. Each countries debt is being traded in the real world by traders where they may as well still have their original currencies with the major exception that as they cannot make adjustments such as depreciating their currencies to improve competitiveness or restructure their economies are in serious decline and in a no ending spiral of deflation until it all implodes!

This is another example of Adam Smith’s invisible hand at work. Politicians cannot overcome their self interest and acknowledge there are fundamental structural flaws in the Euro and will sooner lead to another war in Europe before admitting they are wrong because then their incomes and pensions will be at risk, but in their eyes that will be someone else’s mess to sort out once they leave office!

Seriously we should get our sanity checked!

So what does all this have to do with the markets you ask! Well everything - these are the main reasons that are driving the Bull Market off the 2009 bottom - it is about capital flows, which hopefully more people will eventually wake up to! Governments have shown how totally incompetent they are and the main stream press despite all their political brainwashing about QE and how that is driving the markets up causing mega inflation is utter nonsense! We are in a stagflationary depression, which in many countries has already changed into a deflationary depression. Just like the fall of the former Eastern block with severe deflation, our Marxist government dictatorships are following the same road, that is what we have to look forward to! The final death of Marxism which will cause a clean out of the last 300 years of political corruption and finally get rid of the Marxist experiment.

You cannot for a minute expect that by taking from productive parts of society and redistributing it to the non productive parts (and here I include governments as they do not add to the growth of nations) that eventually the productive sector also will become non productive, hoarding whatever they can until new opportunities arise.

So what is causing this Mega market bubble is capital flows - productive capital looking for opportunities! Even at zero percent interest rates there has been no money flowing into investment - why? because it is difficult to get a return on investment even at these artificial low interest rates that are keeping governments afloat because with their debt loads they would have been bankrupt a long time ago!

Now some technical analysis. A good starting point is to speak the same language, so start with the Terminology which you can refer back to whilst going through the Theory. For a quick summary see my first publication The Euro as an Example of my Techniques

Looking at the S&P starting on the Quarterly fractal wave scale.

Shown are support and resistance levels to end 2015.

Prices have moved up past the levels shown on the QMLU in the April Q update.

The current Q MF channel is shown and prices are projected to rise to test 2200 in the middle of 2015 before making M3

For the pessimists I have shown where this correction will end if I have misinterpreted the projection!

On the monthly Fractal scale.

 Prices have actually broken out of the MLU shown and hence we have 2 viable channels which are discussed below.

Firstly prices are still within M012 channel fork as shown and with the completion of pivot W4 the ideal wave projection for M3 is mid 2015 around 2150. You can see how prices are bouncing between the 2002Q34MLU and the YML and once they break clear of the later expect a rapid rise to M3. If you look at gold and silver they have been doing the same except in their correction so to the down side!

There are now 2 possible channels for this leg up, with the pessimistic MF channel shown first.

As Prices have broken out of the most likely channel and hence are expected to continue to the MF breakout MLU by mid 2016 around 2550 to make pivot M3

And finally looking at the Weekly fractal wave scale.

Firstly to show you the completion of W3 and W4 as well as D pivots and the channel to complete W3

Prices are still within M012 fork as shown in the monthly update, and show the intersection with the break out MAP fork as the ideal target for M3 below for early 2016 challenging 2500 (2485).

This target coincides with WMF234 MLU, and as you can see below prices have so far held support with this week’s low. Based on this prices should make new highs before Christmas in time for the Santa Rally on the WMF234 MLU. This needs to be verified on the Daily fractal scale to confirm sub wave development so far in this uptrend.

MAP Wave Analysis is based on the combination of my modifications of Elliott Waves, Babston's Action and Reaction, and, Andrews Pitchforks, all of which unfortunately are so misapplied. It would appear that they all took their secrets with them to their graves.

Their principles are so simplistic, and being a believer in the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid) I quickly took to them.
To me it was clear though that it was not the result of Newtonian physics, but human behavior!
MAP Wave Analysis gives unemotional high probability projections, BUT ONLY IF YOU USE THE CORRECT PIVOTS!


A good starting point is to speak the same language, so start with the Terminology which you can refer back to whilst going through the Theory. For a quick summary see my first publication The Euro as an Example of my Techniques

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For other articles published click here

© 2014 Copyright Marc Horn- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

maphorn
01 Nov 14, 16:21
Christmas Rally probable Extreme Wave!

With the strength of D1 from W4 it is highly likely we will get an extreme wave to make 2330 High Year end high.

SPX Monthly and Weekly updated

www.mapwaves.com


maphorn
13 Nov 14, 19:39
Christmas Rally over

Well it looks like the Christmas Rally is over! So there goes another seasonal myth!!

http://mapwaveanalysis.com/mapwaves/big-picture/us-indices/dow-jones-11-december-2012-2/spx-y/spx-w-10-nov/#comment-345

Marc


maphorn
14 Nov 14, 14:39
MWA - Christmas Rally Over

MWA has had confirmation that yesterdays high is pivot D1, so hope you enjoyed your early christmas rally, which indeed was an extreme wave!

Time now for consolidation to make D2. target is next months low around mid 1900's.

for details of D1 confirmation see

http://mapwaveanalysis.com/mapwaves/big-picture/us-indices/dow-jones-11-december-2012-2/spx-y/spx-w-10-nov/#comment-351

Marc


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