Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
2.China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - Rambus_Chartology
5.This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - F_F_Wiley
6.GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
7.US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - Chris_Vermeulen
8.Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - Buildadv
9.Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Stock Market Predictive Modeling Is Calling For A Continued Rally - 22nd Apr 18
SWEATCOIN - Get PAID to WALK! Incentive to Burn Fat and Lose Weight - Review - 22nd Apr 18
Sheffield Local Elections 2018 Forecast Results - 22nd Apr 18
How Long Does it take for a 10%+ Stock Market Correction to Make New Highs - 21st Apr 18
Sheffield Ruling Labour Party Could Lose 10 Council Seats at May Local Elections - 21st Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target - 21st Apr 18
Gold Price Nearing Bull Market Breakout, Stocks to Follow - 20th Apr 18
What’s Bitcoin Really Worth? - 20th Apr 18
Stock Market May "Let Go" - 20th Apr 18
Overwhelming Evidence Against Near Stock Market Grand Supercycle Top - 20th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - 20th Apr 18
The Incredible Silver Trade – What You Need to Know - 20th Apr 18
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? - 19th Apr 18
Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns - 19th Apr 18
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In - 19th Apr 18
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet - 19th Apr 18
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit - 19th Apr 18
Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests - 19th Apr 18
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries - 18th Apr 18
Winter is Coming - Coming Storms Will Bring Out the Best and Worst in Humanity - 18th Apr 18
What Does it Take to Create Living Wage Jobs? - 18th Apr 18
Gold and Silver Buy Signals - 18th Apr 18
WINTER IS COMING - The Ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis Part2 - 18th Apr 18
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish - 17th Apr 18
Three Gold Charts, One Big Gold Stocks Opportunity - 17th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? - 17th Apr 18
A Good Time to Buy Facebook? - 17th Apr 18
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm - 16th Apr 18
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market - 16th Apr 18
Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold - 16th Apr 18
Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline - 16th Apr 18
How To Profit As Oil Prices Explode - 16th Apr 18
Junior Mining Stocks are Close to Breaking Downtrend - 16th Apr 18
Look Inside a Caravan at UK Holiday Park for Summer 2018 - Hoseasons Cayton Bay Sea Side - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market More Weakness? How Much? - 15th Apr 18
Time for the Gold Bulls to Show their Mettle - 15th Apr 18
Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars - 15th Apr 18
Sugar Commodity Buying Levels Analysis - 14th Apr 18
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive - 14th Apr 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Credit Crisis Crushing UK Banks

Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008 Jun 15, 2008 - 05:14 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany commentators in the mainstream have in recent weeks begun voicing the opinion that the credit crisis may be over or the worst of the crisis is behind us -

Jim Reid, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank, said: "This is a further sign that the actual credit crisis is easing. Anything that is not complete seizure is encouraging." on news of the HBOS £500 mortgage securitisation deal.


IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said, "We have good reason to think that the financial crisis is mostly behind us but it's too soon to say"

However, one of the primary indicators of the depth of the ongoing credit crisis is the interbank LIBOR market which as the below graph clearly indicates that the credit crunch Tsunami waves have turned into a perpetual flood of risk averseness as banks refuse to lend to one another.

The next wave to hit the UK banking sector began in early April 08 and has not only failed to dissipate but intensified due to a series of events such as the rights issue u-turns by Bradford and Bingley which whilst teetering on a Northern rockesque style brink of collapse, buckled and lowered its rights issue price from 82p to 55p and thus letting the underwriters that were squirming to extricate themselves from the deal off the hook. This has had the effect of worsening the credit crisis as the market is now less inclined to entertain emergency cash calls for capital from the banking sector.

Inflation exploding higher in May 08, signals that the banking sector can no longer rely on interest rate cuts to help alleviate the crisis in the housing markets.

Unfortunately there is little the government can do to prevent the surge in, inflation as the primary causes are soaring fuel and food costs. The Bank of England may even be forced to raise rates later in the year, so as to prevent a wage price spiral kicking in which would lead the country into several years of stagflation.

Therefore the overall situation is worsening for the banking sector as the US and UK housing markets will continue to deteriorate. The UK housing market as the below graph illustrates has barely begun its bear market. If the banks are under such pressure this early in the cycle then the expectation is that many of the familiar names around today will not survive this housing bear market and accompanying tightening credit market.

The UK housing market is down 7% over the last 10 months and is expected to decline by a further 8% over the next 14 months, inline with the forecast as of August 2007 for a 15% decline over 2 years. However the trend does not end there as preliminary analysis suggests the housing market could fall by 25% by mid 2011. The consequences for which will be felt in a surge in repossessions far beyond the estimates of 45,000 by the Council of Mortgage lenders. The depression in the banking sector has started to hit the wider economy, this is expected to accelerate in the coming months as without a functioning banking sector everything freezes.

In conclusion, we are no where near the end of this credit crisis, far from it we have yet to pass the mid-way point, as we are only now starting to enter into the stagflation phase, which itself is triggering a relentless wave of Tsunami's that fail to dissipate despite frantic central bank actions.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article if published in its entirety, including attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules