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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

European Empire Strikes Back Against Greek Debt Fantasy, Counting Down to GREXIT

Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis Jun 25, 2015 - 08:54 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Interest-Rates

Greece has managed to survive Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's bank runs that continue on a DAILY basis courtesy of the Euro-zone tax payer forced to step in as the ECB is provides the Greek banks with daily liquidity that totals every single Euro that is being withdrawn from the Greek banks by fearful depositors as Greece continues to count down to debt default on 30th of June. The question is will Greece survive Thursday? Friday? and off course the 30th of June deadline?


On Monday with much spin the Greek Syriza government published their Trojan Horse cunning plan that contained many red lines of what they would not cut such as pensions and the public sector wages, instead 8 billion euro's of the Greek black hole economy would be filled by vague tax rises such as taxing yachts.

Well on Wednesday the IMF responded by striking a red line through Syriza red lines as the Greek Trojan horse cunning plan was revealed as being total BS that amounted to just 8% of cuts and 92% of proposed vague tax rises, that effectively results in a stance that is at the near the polar opposite of what Greece's creditors had been was expecting, one of heavy spending cuts and light tax rises.

The problem is that the Greece population are suffering from mass delusion, both as a consequence of self interest in not facing upto facts that they are not willing to work as hard as Northern Europeans, not willing to live within their means and because of continuous political propaganda that paints a picture of Greece's creditors holding Greece to ransom over its debt and interest repayments without the burden of which Greece is said would function perfectly well. THIS IS DELUSIONAL for the reality is that Greece has not made ANY debt or INTEREST repayments for five years now! Because the euro-zone has been PAYING Greece money to REPAY the euro-zone with monies due. Not only that but Greece public spending has been financed the Euro-zone bailouts to the tune of at least Euro 10 billion a year.

And that is why the Troika are determined to force Greece to see sense and CUT public spending, cut the deficit as otherwise euro-zone tax payers will be subsidising the Greek life-style for eternity.

Greeks need quite whining about the Troika NAZIS and swallow the RED pill so that they wake up to the realty and make a choice of either to go bankrupt and leave the euro-zone and print their own currency to inflate to infinity OR follow the Troika programme for the erosion of the deficit in public spending, whilst realising that Greece has not been making any debt or interest repayments, and nor likely will for some time as debt and interest are perpetually rolled over until inflation has inflated its value away. The only problem is that Greece is addicted to debt, which is at the root of this crisis that few talk about in that the crisis is not Greece's debt but rather Greece wants to BORROW MORE from the Euro-zone!

The bottom line is that Greeks whole heartedly believe in their fantasy economy, one that promises affluence without work, retirement without work, public services without paying for them, life after death, no wait that is a different fantasy. However, Greece is a MIRROR for ALL euro-zone members, for the Greeks are human, and therefore ALL of the other euro-zone members are also delusional INCLUDING GERMANY because the Euro-zone is built on a delusional construct of a single currency. Well all currencies are pure fantasy where someone believes in the currency because they have been repeatedly told that it has value which I will cover in detail in my next in-depth analysis so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletters.

At the end of the day the only real winners here are not the ordinary people who have been battered and bruised and brainwashed to believe in that which does not exist but the elite, the bankster's who are the ones whose wealth has been protected from bankruptcy and deflation.

My long standing view is that the best thing for the Greek people to do would be to leave the euro-zone. As of writing Greece apparently is counting down to yet another deadline today (Thursday) which will pass just as surely had Wednesdays 11am deadline passed without event and so will probably Fridays deadline as Greece remains firmly on the path towards a GREXIT. Some times I have to wonder is the Greece debt crisis real or is it a never ending soap opera that ends each days episode with a cliff hanger. JUST GET ON WITH IT AND EJECT GREECE, then Spain, Portugal and Italy out of the Eurozone!

And as GREXIT appears probable then expect much huffing and puffing from Alexis Tsipras laying the blame at the feet of the Euro-zone rather than looking in the mirror at the power hungry mad marxist staring back, who delusionally sees it as the right of Greece that like a vampire sucks the blood of the euro-zone forever.

More on Greece in my recent article -

19 Jun 2015 - Big Fat Greek Bank Run - Greece Banking System Could Collapse Monday 22nd June

Greece Bank Run Going Exponential

The Greek banking system has been bleeding deposits all year, having seen at least Euro 40 billion withdrawn this year, leaving behind approx Euro 120 billion. However, as the end game approaches (Varoufakis is apparently an expert on Game Theory) the rate of withdrawal has accelerated to over Euro 1 billion per day, up from approx Euro 200 million a day of a week ago, and could keep doubling every other day, which is despite ECB support on a DAILY basis without which Greece's banking system would have collapsed 5 years ago! Which means Greek banks are paying withdrawing depositors with funds from the ECB that to date totals approx Euro 120 billion because the Greek banks have been bankrupt for some time!

Even Greece's central bank panicked by opening warning the Syriza government that Greece was heading for a catastrophic crash out of the euro-zone.

18 Jun 2015 - GREXIT - Greece Wants to Become Scotland, Seeks Permanent Subsidy from Euro Tax Payers

The Big Problem is PorExit, SpaExit and ItaExit.

Greece in economic terms is a flea on the back of the Euro-zone elephant that could easily survive a GREXIT. But the real problem is who would be next, for soon the pressure would mount on the other PIIGS, with Portugal, Spain and Italy vying for who would be next to EXIT the euro-zone, something which the Euro-zone would not survive. Therefore that remains Greece's 'Ace in the hole', which is why they are still in the eurozone, so probably suggests that some sort of fudge will be arrived at that would only DELAY GREXIT for the fundamental reason Greece is BANKRUPT!

A GrExit would also make a BrExit more probable, whilst Putin would be dancing in the Kremlin.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51203.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Yuriy
26 Jun 15, 20:03
Greece

Spoke to a greek guy at work and asked him about Greece refusal to cut pensions and public salaries. He responded that pensions have been already cut by 2/3. His father gets 500 euro per month, farther could not afford his mortgage anymore so he is covering the shortfall.

Taxes are going up everywhere,

a lot of corruption in previous years and in many cases links go to northern european corporations benefiting directly with a help of back handers.

Greeks would like to stay in europe but they understand that to rebuild an economy, exit and re-basement like in Iceland is required.

My conclusion is that EU has to help Greece by:

- forfeiting all the debt;

- decreasing corruption;

- restoring Greece competitiveness;

Greeks are as hardworking as any other country in Europe.


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