Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17
UK BrExit General Election 2017 - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get it Right? - 19th May 17
Gold Mining Junior Stocks GDXJ 2017 Fundamentals - 19th May 17
If China Can Fund Infrastructure With Its Own Credit, So Can We - 19th May 17
Evidence That Stocks are More Overvalued than Ever - 19th May 17
Obamacare May Become Zombiecare In 2018 - 19th May 17
The End of Reflation? Implications for Gold - 19th May 17
Gold and Silver Trading Alert: New Important Technical Development - 19th May 17
Subversion And Constructive Synthesis Of Capitalism And Socialism - 18th May 17
Silver: Train Leaving Station Soon! - 18th May 17
Credit and Volatility Signal That Financial Conditions Are Very Overheated - 18th May 17
Another Stock Market "Minsky Moment" or Will the Markets Calm Down? - 18th May 17
WannaCry Ransomware Virus Is a Globalist False Flag Attack On Bitcoin - 18th May 17
Euro, Stocks, Gold Momentum Extremes All Round! - 18th May 17
US Stock Market Slumps on Establishment / CIA Trump Impeachment Coup Plan - 18th May 17
Tory Landslide, Labour Bloodbath - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get a UK Election Right? - 17th May 17
The stock market sectors which are breaking out in 2017 - 17th May 17
A ‘Must-See’ Chart for Gold and Silver Aficionados  - 17th May 17
Will the SPX Stock Market Final Surge Fail to Appear? - 16th May 17
Claim your FREE copy of Jim Rickards’ explosive book - 16th May 17
GOP Establishment Elite Plots Trump Removal - 16th May 17
Walkers Crisps Pay Packet Cheats, Shoplifters and Staff Conning Customers - 16th May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 15th May 17
Gold Stocks Poised to Soar Sharply Higher! - 15th May 17
This One Undiscovered Pot Stock Could Help Investors Cash In On The “Green Gold Rush” - 15th May 17
WIll Trump Tax Cuts Debt Binge Save Stock Market From Double Top Bear Plunge? - 15th May 17
Trump Rally or Geopolitical Meltdown: Currency Management for Dollar Risk - 15th May 17
A Shallow Stock Market Correction? - 15th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Commodity Markets

Making Heads or Tails of This Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jan 07, 2016 - 06:04 PM GMT

By: EWI

Stock-Markets

We don't have all the answers. But we do have 30-plus years of market experience on our side.

As the books were closed on 2015, the Chicago Tribune reported:

"After a dismal stock finish to 2015, your natural conclusion might be: Why did I bother?


"The Standard & Poor's 500 finished the year down 0.73%... The DJIA suffered its worst year since the 2008 financial crisis, declining 2.2%... Only the Nasdaq ended the year up... 5.7%...

"...energy stocks as a group plunged 24%, and individually, many fell 30 or 40%. The energy plunge hurt unsuspecting retirees as master limited partnerships, or MLPs, dropped 36% -- a shock since analysts previously claimed that pipelines and other infrastructure in MLPs would be immune to an energy crash. Another retiree favorite for dividends -- utility funds -- lost 9% in 2015, according to Morningstar.

"Bond funds weren't comforting either. The average bond fund investing in a broad mix declined about 2% … …junk bond funds have declined 4% on average, according to Morningstar."

We're only a few trading days into 2016 -- yet, so far, the new year isn't looking any more promising. Right now, you may be scrambling to make sense of the DJIA's huge tumble on Monday. (It was, in fact, the Dow's worst intraday start to the year since 1932 and worst full first day start since 2008.) This excerpt from our December Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (published Dec. 4) may help:

"According to the consensus view, the thinking inside the Fed is that the economy is finally healthy enough to return borrowing costs to 'more ‘normal’ levels.' Such a move would actually be consistent with many of the most important market peaks in history, such as September 1929 and January 2000 when the Fed famously 'pulled the punch bowl' by increasing the Federal Funds rate as stocks reached the extremes of major advances. China did something similar in 2007, raising borrowing costs several times. The Shanghai Composite Index made its all-time high in October 2007.

"Of course there is one big difference: On each of those occasions, the central bank rate hike was part of a series that pushed rates through 6%. This time, the rise will be the first in more than six years, and it will come from a virtually non-existent level of 0.25%. With the economy so much weaker, some will view it as the straw that broke the back of the global economy.

"The truth is that the Fed is succumbing to the feel-good sentiment of a peak in positive social mood by doing what it has always done in the past; confidently raising interest rates just before the start of a major bear market."

In the days to come, you may hear opinions that the stock market turmoil is the fault of the Fed. Note that the argument we make is more nuanced. We track and forecast Elliott waves, or waves of social mood, and there is a history of central banks acting confidently by raising rates just as the mood (as reflected by the stock market) hits a peak.

So, where does that leave us?

We don't have all the answers. We do what we've done for more than three decades: Study the wave patterns, look at key sentiment indicators, compare them to previous tops and bottoms -- and put it all together to give you a forecast and a unique perspective on how markets behave.

Read our new report, Risk ON? Risk OFF? Find Out Where Your Money Lies. The editors of our Financial Forecast Service, Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall, have been tracking a "steady global shift to greater financial conservatism over the last 18 months." They have just published this new report detailing all of their findings. Read Their Complete Report >>


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Making Heads or Tails of This Market. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife