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BBC EU Referendum Result Highlights - YouGov, Markets, Bookmakers, Pollsters ALL WRONG!

ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 26, 2016 - 09:40 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Here are the key highlights I have picked form 8 hours of BBC coverage of the EU Referendum count that started shortly after 10pm as YouGov's poll effectively gave the referendum to REMAIN on 52% against LEAVE on 48% which even prompted Nigel Farage to effectively concede defeat at around 10.15pm, sending sterling soaring to its highest level against the dollar for 2016, and also triggering a sharp FTSE stock futures rally, which I will cover in-depth in an accompanying video on trading sterling and FTSE during brexit, until then here are the highlights of what happened after the polls closed on Thursday 23rd of June.


https://youtu.be/l1OrRd6MpjQ

Key points to note whilst watching are -

1. YouGov poll gave the referendum to REMAIN at 52% to 49% for LEAVE.

2. Sterling and stock futures soared in anticipation of a REMAIN win.

3. Nigel Farage early on effectively conceded that REMAIN had one

4. The book makers also heavily discounting a REMAIN win, where even the likes of Alex Salmond mentioned that Betfair had been giving long odds of 14-1 on LEAVE.

Which is set against my forecast conclusion as of 12th of June on the basis of a year long analysis of more than 120 articles and more than a dozen videos that LEAVE would win the referendum on a forecast 51.3% against 48.7% for REMAIN that resulted in trading and betting strategies going into the polls that I will cover the outcomes of in my next comprehensive video.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

upwarddog
27 Jun 16, 21:34
UK BANKS AND MARKET ANALYSIS

Nadeem, I like many look forward to your post-apocolyptic analysis. A little sarcasm, but this is truly not a credit event and UK Banks such as Barclays have been pounded. I'm sure you are assessing the aftermath and wanted to see when you will be posting your next article as to market expectations going forward.


Nadeem_Walayat
27 Jun 16, 22:07
BreExit Best for Britain

Well I did say to be short stocks and sterling going into Brexit day, and that the FTSE and sterling drops would be temporary.

A year from now everyone including the markets will be applauding Britians wise decision.


upwarddog
28 Jun 16, 02:43
BCS

Barclays overseas forward earnings just reaped huge rewards with this overnight currency devaluation, and I agree 100%.


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