Trump Betting Odds Narrow Going into 1st Presidential Debate Suggesting Trump Win
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Sep 26, 2016 - 11:15 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The 1st of 3 presidential debates will be held in a few hours time going into which Hillary leads across a wide spectrum of indicators from polling, political pundits, electoral college forecasters such as Nate Silver who give Hillary a 60% probability of winning the election, and of course the bookmakers who have Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite with Donald Trump as a 2-1 outsider.
However, the odds on a Trump election win are narrowing going into the first debate. Where fore instance the Betfair market yesterday had Hillary Clinton on 1.58 (67% probability) to 3.05 (33% probability) for Trump.
Today, the latest odds are showing a marginal narrowing in Trumps favour with Hillary now on 1.59 to Trump on 2.88.
Whilst he movement may be marginal, however it further confirms the direction of travel in Trumps favour which means the odds could continue trending towards making Trump the favourite by election night and so could the polls also move in Trumps favour from the current 44% for Hillary against 41% for Trump.
However, as my recent forecast conclusion on the probable outcome of the US Presidential election 2016 pointed out that the political pundits, pollsters, and bookies could yet ALL turn out to be WRONG all the way into election night when the result could confound all expectations just as the BrExit result did in the UK. And so the american people could also be about to rebel against the establishment elite by refusing to vote for an establishment candidate and thus by default electing the anti-establishment Donald Trump. See my US election forecast video -
And also see http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article56651.html
A good pointer for who has won the 1st debate will be where the odds stand immediately after the debate. Can Hillary halt the momentum of the Trump train? Or will the odds continue to shift in Trumps favour, we shall soon find out in a few hours time.
My next in-depth analysis will seek to map out a trend forecast for the stock market for the remainder of 2016, so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in your email in box.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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