Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Intel Empire Fights Back with Rocket and Alder Lake! - 24th Jan 21
4 Reasons for Coronavirus 2021 Hope - 24th Jan 21
Apple M1 Chip Another Nail in Intel's Coffin - Top AI Tech Stocks 2021 - 24th Jan 21
Stock Market: Why You Should Prepare for a Jump in Volatility - 24th Jan 21
What’s next for Bitcoin Price – $56k or $16k? - 24th Jan 21
How Does Credit Repair Work? - 24th Jan 21
Silver Price 2021 Roadmap - 22nd Jan 21
Why Biden Wants to Win the Fight for $15 Federal Minimum Wage - 22nd Jan 21
Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up - 22nd Jan 21
US Dollar Decline creates New Sector Opportunities to Trade - 22nd Jan 21
Sandisk Extreme Micro SDXC Memory Card Read Write Speed Test Actual vs Sales Pitch - 22nd Jan 21
NHS Recommends Oximeter Oxygen Sensor Monitors for Everyone 10 Months Late! - 22nd Jan 21
DoorDash Has All the Makings of the “Next Amazon” - 22nd Jan 21
How to Survive a Silver-Gold Sucker Punch - 22nd Jan 21
2021: The Year of the Gripping Hand - 22nd Jan 21
Technology Minerals appoints ex-BP Petrochemicals CEO as Advisor - 22nd Jan 21
Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data - 21st Jan 21
Protecting the Vulnerable 2021 - 21st Jan 21
How To Play The Next Stage Of The Marijuana Boom - 21st Jan 21
UK Schools Lockdown 2021 Covid Education Crisis - Home Learning Routine - 21st Jan 21
General Artificial Intelligence Was BORN in 2020! GPT-3, Deep Mind - 20th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Crash: FCA Warning Was a Slap in the Face. But Not the Cause - 20th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic 2021 - We’re Going to Need More Than a Vaccine - 20th Jan 21
The Biggest Biotech Story Of 2021? - 20th Jan 21
Biden Bailout, Democrat Takeover to Drive Americans into Gold - 20th Jan 21
Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold? - 20th Jan 21
Trump and Coronavirus Pandemic Final US Catastrophe 2021 - 19th Jan 21
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains - 19th Jan 21
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity - 19th Jan 21
Who Will NEXT Be Removed from the Internet? - 19th Jan 21
This Small Company Could Revolutionize The Trillion-Dollar Drug Sector - 19th Jan 21
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case - 18th Jan 21
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout - 18th Jan 21
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? - 18th Jan 21
Some Basic Facts About Forex Trading - 18th Jan 21
Custom Build PC 2021 - Ryzen 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb DDR4 Specs - Scan Computers 3SX Order Day 11 - 17th Jan 21
UK Car MOT Covid-19 Lockdown Extension 2021 - 17th Jan 21
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Will Win US Presidential Election 2016

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Nov 05, 2016 - 05:55 AM GMT

By: GoldCore

Commodities

  • Gold could rise to at least 8% following election
  • Trump victory will push gold up 10%
  • Uncertainty pre and post election likely to support the gold price
  • Election jitters are one of several drivers for the gold price
  • Trump win will release a ‘wave of risk aversion’
  • Safe-haven demand maybe set to rise in coming weeks

To the relief of some but the worry of many others the US election is now just days away. Unlike past elections this one appears to grown more uncertain and fraught the closer it gets.

Since the FBI announced further investigations into emails associated with Hillary Clinton, her lead has narrowed and voters appear to be even more undecided.

For some the decision is a fate worse than death, as Reuters reported, ‘Young Americans are so dissatisfied with their choices in this presidential election that nearly one in four told an opinion poll they would rather have a giant meteor destroy the Earth than see Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in the White House.’

There appears to be one winner amongst all this though, gold. Regardless of who will enter the White House in January, the gold price is set to perform well in both the short and long-term.

Gold price to climb no matter who wins

The news of the gold price’s positive run surrounding the elections made headlines this week when HSBC analyst  James Steel published a note stating gold would climb 8% no matter who wins.

Backing this up the World Gold Council wrote yesterday, “We expect that both the presidential and congressional elections results will be supportive of gold regardless of the outcome, given the high uncertainty in the direction of policy and the possibility that the results may be contested.”

Clinton policies will drive gold upwards

Should Clinton win then for many this will be a relief and also a reason to carry-on as if little has happened. General consensus is that little will change with another Clinton in the White House. Unless the Democrats miraculously manage to take control of Congress, then get ready for another four years of stalemate.

According to Steel, this will still be bullish for gold, “Such an outcome would largely support our current expectations for gold. Our bullish base case, built on expectations of a low rate environment and recovering physical demand, is a forecast of USD1,400/oz by end-2016 with an average forecast price of USD1,275/oz. For 2017, we forecast gold at USD1,440/oz by year end with an average price forecast of USD1,310/oz. If Mrs. Clinton wins, we believe her trade policies in particular and shift to protectionism would reaffirm our already bullish outlook. If contrary to current poll indications the Democrats also take control of Congress, then there could be a more expansionary fiscal policy. This could have a more bullish impact on our 2017 forecasts.”

Not everyone is as bullish about gold should Clinton win, in the short-term. Jeff Nichols wrote earlier this week, ““My guess is that Wall Street and foreign stock markets would be relieved by a Clinton victory, with equity prices posting brief short-term gains, and gold giving up the small gains it registered in the days immediately prior to the election,” said Nichols”

Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit, agreed, telling Bloomberg, “If Hillary Clinton is elected, we think gold can probably fall by $20, $30.”

Trump win means more uncertainty for us but certainty for gold

UBS’s Gordon sees a Trump win to be hugely beneficial to the gold price, “If Donald Trump is elected next week, we think gold can go anywhere shy of $1,400…So the clear skew in this trade is to the upside.”

When it comes to Trump this is where Steel sees a very positive environment for gold, “a Trump win would be decidedly gold-bullish, in our view, given the potential for increased protectionism, higher budget spending and geopolitical risks. Gold prices could jump to USD1,500/oz relatively quickly, and end the year at that level on a Trump win. This could raise our 2016 average price to USD1,300/oz. For 2017, gold could rise further to USD1,575/oz by year end with an average of USD1,410/oz.”

For the majority of those weighing in on gold-price moves over the election, it is the air of uncertainty that is creating a positive environment for gold.

A Trump win “would see likely see a wave of risk aversion,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Gold prices have already moved higher as a result of the U.S. presidential election becoming less clear. Assuming polls continue to tighten, gold prices should continue to edge higher.”

Only gold is learning from history

History has generally shown that when there is a change in the partisan affiliation of the presidency, the price of gold benefits. When there is no change in administration then gold tends not to react.

Meanwhile, some believe that gold’s reaction depends on which party is in the White House. Some research I carried out a few years ago found that gold generally performed better under a Democrat administration.

However history doesn’t appear to come into this election. The only thing that history is feeding into right now are the predictions on the gold price. We know from experience that gold performs well during times of uncertainty.

“Gold is seen as a hedge against political uncertainty, and President Trump would bring more political unpredictability than any president for generations, particularly over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s leadership and monetary policy strategy,” James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities, wrote in a recent note. Butterfly expects gold to climb by as much as 10% in the year proceeding a Trump victory.

Long-term, the gold price doesn’t care

At present the gold price is reacting to the uncertainty surrounding the election result, but long-term the outlook is also bullish. Ron Paul sees little difference between the two parties and sees a bullish environment, not matter what the outcome is on Tuesday.

We quoted Ron Paul, earlier this year who stated, “Politically speaking, there is going to be a lot more uncertainty and that may go into the markets … If people are depending on political stability to get the market going I don’t think it’s going to work out.”

“Nothing ever really changes regardless of which party wins. Governments keep growing, the deficits keep growing and the Fed keeps borrowing and printing more money,” he said. “I don’t expect a lot to change.”

Gold’s bright future is down to uncertainty and safe-haven demand in the short-term, but in the long-term this election will be a mere brick in the long-road, bullish road ahead.

7RealRisksBanner

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

04 Nov: USD 1,301.70, GBP 1,042.79 & EUR 1,172.57 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 1,293.00, GBP 1,040.61 & EUR 1,165.90 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,295.85, GBP 1,056.51 & EUR 1,169.76 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,284.40, GBP 1,048.58 & EUR 1,167.52 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,274.20, GBP 1,046.25 & EUR 1,163.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 1,265.90, GBP 1,042.47 & EUR 1,160.96 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 1,269.30, GBP 1,038.29 & EUR 1,162.93 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

04 Nov: USD 18.30, GBP 14.65 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 18.07, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.32 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 18.54, GBP 15.05 & EUR 16.70 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 18.24, GBP 14.91 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 17.76, GBP 14.59 & EUR 16.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 17.61, GBP 14.51 & EUR 16.13 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 17.66, GBP 14.41 & EUR 16.16 per ounce

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

IRL
63
FITZWILLIAM SQUARE
DUBLIN 2

E info@goldcore.com

UK
NO. 1 CORNHILL
LONDON 2
EC3V 3ND

IRL +353 (0)1 632 5010
UK +44 (0)203 086 9200
US +1 (302)635 1160

W http://www.goldcore.com/uk/

WINNERS MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analysts 2006

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

GoldCore is committed to complying with the requirements of the Data Protection Act. This means that in the provision of our services, appropriate personal information is processed and kept securely. It also means that we will never sell your details to a third party. The information you provide will remain confidential and may be used for the provision of related services. Such information may be disclosed in confidence to agents or service providers, regulatory bodies and group companies. You have the right to ask for a copy of certain information held by us in our records in return for payment of a small fee. You also have the right to require us to correct any inaccuracies in your information. The details you are being asked to supply may be used to provide you with information about other products and services either from GoldCore or other group companies or to provide services which any member of the group has arranged for you with a third party. If you do not wish to receive such contact, please write to the Marketing Manager GoldCore, 63 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 marking the envelope 'data protection'

GoldCore Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules