Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Researchers Find $10 Billion Hidden Treasure In A Dead Volcano - OilPrice_Com
3.Gold and Silver : The Battle for Control - Rambus_Chartology
4.Asda Sales Collapse and Profits Crash! UK Retailer Sector Crisis 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - James_Quinn
6.The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - Plunger
7.Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - Zeal_LLC
8.Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - John_Mauldin
9.Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - Nadia_Simmons
10.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last 7 days
The Stock Market No Longer Cares About Trump - 21st Aug 17
The Coming Boom Of Productivity Will Get Our Economy Back On Track - 21st Aug 17
Buffett Sees Stock Market Crash Coming? His Cash Speaks Louder Than Words - 21st Aug 17
This Could Be The Biggest Gold Discovery In History - 21st Aug 17
Stock Market Correction in Full Swing - 21st Aug 17
Seeking Confirmations – US Stock Market - 21st Aug 17
The changing demographic of online gamblers - 21st Aug 17
Gold is a coiled spring… the breakout is here, fundamentals are in place, technicals are compelling - 20th Aug 17
A Midsummer Night's Dream: Buy Gold and Silver - 20th Aug 17
Gold Mining Stocks 2017 Fundamentals - 20th Aug 17
EIA Weekly Report and Crude Oil - 19th Aug 17
4 Insights for Adjusting Your Portfolio in a Rate-hike Environment - 19th Aug 17
Gold Direction Indicator - 19th Aug 17
Historical Inevitability and Gold and Silver Ownership - 19th Aug 17
You Are Being Lied To About “Low” Gold Demand - 19th Aug 17
This is Why Cocoa's Crash Was a Perfect Setup - 19th Aug 17
Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High - 19th Aug 17
North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational… It Has A Plan - 18th Aug 17
US Civil War - FUNCTIONAL ILLITERATES TRYING TO ERASE HISTORY - 18th Aug 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Over $4,400 As It Catches Paypal In Total Market Cap - 17th Aug 17
3 Psychological Ingredients behind Great Web Content - 17th Aug 17
The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka - 17th Aug 17
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17
The Next Tech Crash Could Delay Your Retirement by a Decade - 15th Aug 17
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - 15th Aug 17
North Korea Showdown: Pivotal Market Turning Point - 15th Aug 17
Tech Stocks DOT COM Bubble Do-Over? - 14th Aug 17
Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - 14th Aug 17
From the Trans-Atlantic Axis and the Trans-Asian Axis - 14th Aug 17
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 14th Aug 17
The Islamic State Jihadi Pivot to Asia - 13th Aug 17
Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold - 13th Aug 17
North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - 12th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

BrExit Swing States Win Donald Trump the Presidential Election 2016 As Forecast

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 09, 2016 - 08:24 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

BREXIT! The pollsters, mainstream press pundits, analysts, markets and bookies ALL Got the US Presidential Election badly WRONG. This is the second time this year that they ALL got a major election badly wrong. Not even coming close to forecasting this election from the New York Times to Nate Silver downwards, thousands writing reams and reams of garbage presenting the view that Donald Trump cannot possibly win, right up to the close of the polls.


However, those who followed my analysis and concluding forecast for THIS election as was the case for BrExit before it, I forecast that Donald Trump was going to WIN this election due to the 'BrExit factor', which allows for a 3-4% swing that is NOT recorded by the opinion polls.

And so my analysis generated a list of 9 key BrExit Swing States, those where Hillary led by less than 4% in the state polls, which meant that Donald Trump would WIN these brexit states as the anti-establishment candidate and thus the election.

Adding 108 BrExit swing states to Donald Trumps accepted tally of winnable states of 191 forecast an electorate college win for Donald Trump of 299, if he won every BrExit state, most of which he has succeeded doing so amongst others.

Though having been awake now for some 30 hours, I'll have to cut this article short but I will come back with much deeper analysis of how Donald Trump won this election and just how worthless the opinion pollsters, form the likes of the New York Times to Nate Silvers fivethirtyeight site were in a later series of articles and videos in the meantime refer to the following selection of videos amongst many more articles that explain the BrExit factor and why Donald Trump was destined to win the election despite the pollsters, which given that he was an under dog presented a great profit opportunity, for instance at 1am UK time today, Donald Trump was trading on odds of 11 to 1 to Win! That converts into every £100 bet resulting in a profit of £1100!

8th November 2016:

7th November:

2nd November 2016:

12th October:

4th October:

2nd October:

26th September:

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

JustAnotherExBanker
09 Nov 16, 14:15
Nadeem, thanks again

Nadeem,

I just wanted to thank you again for your accurate blogs. I backed Trump to win at 5.5 to 1 and won £260 last night. This comes after a similar win on the BrExit vote.

As a result, I'm taking my wife out for a meal tonight and she thanks you as well.

Cheers,

Robbie.


Nadeem_Walayat
10 Nov 16, 15:29
Trump win

Congrats on your win.

5.5 is a good price, my first bets were at 3.05 and last at 6.4. I did see the price surge to 12 after the polls closed but lacked the balls to bet more.

Best

Nadeem W.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife