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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

BrExit Swing States Win Donald Trump the Presidential Election 2016 As Forecast

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 09, 2016 - 08:24 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


BREXIT! The pollsters, mainstream press pundits, analysts, markets and bookies ALL Got the US Presidential Election badly WRONG. This is the second time this year that they ALL got a major election badly wrong. Not even coming close to forecasting this election from the New York Times to Nate Silver downwards, thousands writing reams and reams of garbage presenting the view that Donald Trump cannot possibly win, right up to the close of the polls.

However, those who followed my analysis and concluding forecast for THIS election as was the case for BrExit before it, I forecast that Donald Trump was going to WIN this election due to the 'BrExit factor', which allows for a 3-4% swing that is NOT recorded by the opinion polls.

And so my analysis generated a list of 9 key BrExit Swing States, those where Hillary led by less than 4% in the state polls, which meant that Donald Trump would WIN these brexit states as the anti-establishment candidate and thus the election.

Adding 108 BrExit swing states to Donald Trumps accepted tally of winnable states of 191 forecast an electorate college win for Donald Trump of 299, if he won every BrExit state, most of which he has succeeded doing so amongst others.

Though having been awake now for some 30 hours, I'll have to cut this article short but I will come back with much deeper analysis of how Donald Trump won this election and just how worthless the opinion pollsters, form the likes of the New York Times to Nate Silvers fivethirtyeight site were in a later series of articles and videos in the meantime refer to the following selection of videos amongst many more articles that explain the BrExit factor and why Donald Trump was destined to win the election despite the pollsters, which given that he was an under dog presented a great profit opportunity, for instance at 1am UK time today, Donald Trump was trading on odds of 11 to 1 to Win! That converts into every £100 bet resulting in a profit of £1100!

8th November 2016:

7th November:

2nd November 2016:

12th October:

4th October:

2nd October:

26th September:

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2016 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


09 Nov 16, 14:15
Nadeem, thanks again


I just wanted to thank you again for your accurate blogs. I backed Trump to win at 5.5 to 1 and won £260 last night. This comes after a similar win on the BrExit vote.

As a result, I'm taking my wife out for a meal tonight and she thanks you as well.



10 Nov 16, 15:29
Trump win

Congrats on your win.

5.5 is a good price, my first bets were at 3.05 and last at 6.4. I did see the price surge to 12 after the polls closed but lacked the balls to bet more.


Nadeem W.

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