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Urgent Stock Market Message

Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasts Indicator?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 16, 2016 - 02:16 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


Nate Silver or more correctly his site got the US Presidential election of 2016 very badly wrong, for instance they had Hillary on a probability of at least 88% a few weeks out from the election day and about an hour before the polls closed had Hillary on a winning 71% against Trump trailing on just 29%.

So why could Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight prove to be such an reliable election indicator, one that the mainstream press gorge on at each election, one that always tops the google searches when searching for election forecasts?

We'll for virtually election that I have taken an interest in for the past few years, when I have generated my own forecasts, Nate Silver's site tends to be on the losing end, lose, lose, lose, lose for instance before the US Presidential election there were UK General election's of 2015 abd 2010, and I don't think he even had the balls to try to forecast the UK EU Referendum.

All wrong as the following illustrates: 09 May 2015 - Nate Silver Badly Wrong AGAIN on UK General Election Forecast - 2015

So if Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight keeps getting election forecasts so badly wrong then why would I title this article as the most reliable election forecaster (after myself of course), we'll there are two kinds of forecasters you want to pay attention to, those who nearly always get the result right (me) and those who nearly always get the result WRONG!

Yes, that's right, expect the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Nate Silver's site is forecasting as being the more probable outcome, and what's so great about this is that the mainstream press and general public tend to lap it all up, don't tend to fact check on past forecasts which converts into great betting odds, just as was the case for Trump this year, for nearly a month one could have easily picked up 5-1 or better odds on Trump!

So Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight can prove a useful contrary indicator at the NEXT major election. Of course not to use just on its own for even a broken clock gets the time right twice a day! But a good supplementary contrary indicator in ones election forecasting arsenal. To be truthful I was so happy to see Nate Silver forecasting a HIllary win as the clueless mainstream media would be regurgitating it at length, which they did, and which meant that the bookies would be giving great odds on Trump, as they did! Which is why I kept repeatedly referring to Nate's Hillary win probability forecasts, in my Trump will win series of articles.

So Donald Trump won the election and now all those who got it so badly wrong are just as cluelessly busily explaining why he won! For the real reason for why Trump won from someone who actually did forecast that the polls were wrong and Trump would win, then watch my most recent video analysis -

So Donald Trump played his part perfectly as Mr Brexit and now we await to see what shape his next role will take as Mr President, early signs are it will be a watered down version of Mr Brexit, instead of BrExit X10 as he was often heard saying, it's more likely to turn out to be BrExit 25%.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend analysis as we escape the Donald Trump vortex for at least a couple of months instead leaving the fools who never saw it coming to fill the air-waves with their drivel. By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2016 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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