Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasts Indicator?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 16, 2016 - 02:16 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Nate Silver or more correctly his fivethirtyfive.com site got the US Presidential election of 2016 very badly wrong, for instance they had Hillary on a probability of at least 88% a few weeks out from the election day and about an hour before the polls closed had Hillary on a winning 71% against Trump trailing on just 29%.


http://fivethirtyeight.com

So why could Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight prove to be such an reliable election indicator, one that the mainstream press gorge on at each election, one that always tops the google searches when searching for election forecasts?

We'll for virtually election that I have taken an interest in for the past few years, when I have generated my own forecasts, Nate Silver's site tends to be on the losing end, lose, lose, lose, lose for instance before the US Presidential election there were UK General election's of 2015 abd 2010, and I don't think he even had the balls to try to forecast the UK EU Referendum.

All wrong as the following illustrates: 09 May 2015 - Nate Silver Badly Wrong AGAIN on UK General Election Forecast - 2015

So if Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight keeps getting election forecasts so badly wrong then why would I title this article as the most reliable election forecaster (after myself of course), we'll there are two kinds of forecasters you want to pay attention to, those who nearly always get the result right (me) and those who nearly always get the result WRONG!

Yes, that's right, expect the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Nate Silver's site is forecasting as being the more probable outcome, and what's so great about this is that the mainstream press and general public tend to lap it all up, don't tend to fact check on past forecasts which converts into great betting odds, just as was the case for Trump this year, for nearly a month one could have easily picked up 5-1 or better odds on Trump!

So Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight can prove a useful contrary indicator at the NEXT major election. Of course not to use just on its own for even a broken clock gets the time right twice a day! But a good supplementary contrary indicator in ones election forecasting arsenal. To be truthful I was so happy to see Nate Silver forecasting a HIllary win as the clueless mainstream media would be regurgitating it at length, which they did, and which meant that the bookies would be giving great odds on Trump, as they did! Which is why I kept repeatedly referring to Nate's Hillary win probability forecasts, in my Trump will win series of articles.

So Donald Trump won the election and now all those who got it so badly wrong are just as cluelessly busily explaining why he won! For the real reason for why Trump won from someone who actually did forecast that the polls were wrong and Trump would win, then watch my most recent video analysis -

https://youtu.be/n8NGHJKa5t8

So Donald Trump played his part perfectly as Mr Brexit and now we await to see what shape his next role will take as Mr President, early signs are it will be a watered down version of Mr Brexit, instead of BrExit X10 as he was often heard saying, it's more likely to turn out to be BrExit 25%.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend analysis as we escape the Donald Trump vortex for at least a couple of months instead leaving the fools who never saw it coming to fill the air-waves with their drivel. By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules