Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Researchers Find $10 Billion Hidden Treasure In A Dead Volcano - OilPrice_Com
3.Gold and Silver : The Battle for Control - Rambus_Chartology
4.Asda Sales Collapse and Profits Crash! UK Retailer Sector Crisis 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - James_Quinn
6.The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - Plunger
7.Gold Stocks Coiled Spring - Zeal_LLC
8.Neil Howe: The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine the Future of Retail - John_Mauldin
9.Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August - Nadia_Simmons
10.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last 7 days
The Stock Market No Longer Cares About Trump - 21st Aug 17
The Coming Boom Of Productivity Will Get Our Economy Back On Track - 21st Aug 17
Buffett Sees Stock Market Crash Coming? His Cash Speaks Louder Than Words - 21st Aug 17
This Could Be The Biggest Gold Discovery In History - 21st Aug 17
Stock Market Correction in Full Swing - 21st Aug 17
Seeking Confirmations – US Stock Market - 21st Aug 17
The changing demographic of online gamblers - 21st Aug 17
Gold is a coiled spring… the breakout is here, fundamentals are in place, technicals are compelling - 20th Aug 17
A Midsummer Night's Dream: Buy Gold and Silver - 20th Aug 17
Gold Mining Stocks 2017 Fundamentals - 20th Aug 17
EIA Weekly Report and Crude Oil - 19th Aug 17
4 Insights for Adjusting Your Portfolio in a Rate-hike Environment - 19th Aug 17
Gold Direction Indicator - 19th Aug 17
Historical Inevitability and Gold and Silver Ownership - 19th Aug 17
You Are Being Lied To About “Low” Gold Demand - 19th Aug 17
This is Why Cocoa's Crash Was a Perfect Setup - 19th Aug 17
Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High - 19th Aug 17
North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational… It Has A Plan - 18th Aug 17
US Civil War - FUNCTIONAL ILLITERATES TRYING TO ERASE HISTORY - 18th Aug 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Over $4,400 As It Catches Paypal In Total Market Cap - 17th Aug 17
3 Psychological Ingredients behind Great Web Content - 17th Aug 17
The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka - 17th Aug 17
The Stock Market Guns of August, Trade Set-Up & Removing your Rose Tinted Glasses - 16th Aug 17
Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and Serbia, Camp Kotok 2017 - 16th Aug 17
U.S. Stock Market: Sunrise ... Sunset - 16th Aug 17
The Next Tech Crash Could Delay Your Retirement by a Decade - 15th Aug 17
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout - 15th Aug 17
North Korea Showdown: Pivotal Market Turning Point - 15th Aug 17
Tech Stocks DOT COM Bubble Do-Over? - 14th Aug 17
Deep State Conspiracy or Chaos - 14th Aug 17
From the Trans-Atlantic Axis and the Trans-Asian Axis - 14th Aug 17
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 14th Aug 17
The Islamic State Jihadi Pivot to Asia - 13th Aug 17
Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold - 13th Aug 17
North Korean Chinese Proxy vs US Military Empire Trending Towards Nuclear War! - 12th Aug 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasts Indicator?

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 16, 2016 - 02:16 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Nate Silver or more correctly his fivethirtyfive.com site got the US Presidential election of 2016 very badly wrong, for instance they had Hillary on a probability of at least 88% a few weeks out from the election day and about an hour before the polls closed had Hillary on a winning 71% against Trump trailing on just 29%.


http://fivethirtyeight.com

So why could Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight prove to be such an reliable election indicator, one that the mainstream press gorge on at each election, one that always tops the google searches when searching for election forecasts?

We'll for virtually election that I have taken an interest in for the past few years, when I have generated my own forecasts, Nate Silver's site tends to be on the losing end, lose, lose, lose, lose for instance before the US Presidential election there were UK General election's of 2015 abd 2010, and I don't think he even had the balls to try to forecast the UK EU Referendum.

All wrong as the following illustrates: 09 May 2015 - Nate Silver Badly Wrong AGAIN on UK General Election Forecast - 2015

So if Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight keeps getting election forecasts so badly wrong then why would I title this article as the most reliable election forecaster (after myself of course), we'll there are two kinds of forecasters you want to pay attention to, those who nearly always get the result right (me) and those who nearly always get the result WRONG!

Yes, that's right, expect the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Nate Silver's site is forecasting as being the more probable outcome, and what's so great about this is that the mainstream press and general public tend to lap it all up, don't tend to fact check on past forecasts which converts into great betting odds, just as was the case for Trump this year, for nearly a month one could have easily picked up 5-1 or better odds on Trump!

So Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight can prove a useful contrary indicator at the NEXT major election. Of course not to use just on its own for even a broken clock gets the time right twice a day! But a good supplementary contrary indicator in ones election forecasting arsenal. To be truthful I was so happy to see Nate Silver forecasting a HIllary win as the clueless mainstream media would be regurgitating it at length, which they did, and which meant that the bookies would be giving great odds on Trump, as they did! Which is why I kept repeatedly referring to Nate's Hillary win probability forecasts, in my Trump will win series of articles.

So Donald Trump won the election and now all those who got it so badly wrong are just as cluelessly busily explaining why he won! For the real reason for why Trump won from someone who actually did forecast that the polls were wrong and Trump would win, then watch my most recent video analysis -

https://youtu.be/n8NGHJKa5t8

So Donald Trump played his part perfectly as Mr Brexit and now we await to see what shape his next role will take as Mr President, early signs are it will be a watered down version of Mr Brexit, instead of BrExit X10 as he was often heard saying, it's more likely to turn out to be BrExit 25%.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend analysis as we escape the Donald Trump vortex for at least a couple of months instead leaving the fools who never saw it coming to fill the air-waves with their drivel. By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife