In NFTRH, we managed bounce #1 (off the Dec. low) as just that, a bounce. Then we managed bounce #2 as just that, a bounce. It doesn’t take a trained eye to see why; only a rise above the October high would have set an uptrend for bounce #1 and a rise above the February high would have set an uptrend for bounce #2.

It didn’t happen and any pumping done by the gold “community” since last summer has really been just wishful thinking because the sector has been in “bounce only” mode (of interest to traders), as I’ve parroted to subscribers over and over again. In fact, we’ve noted the failure to join gold and break to new highs in both the miners and silver as a negative divergence for the entire sector. Gold of course, was busy getting caught up with the Gassing, Tomahawk and MOAB war/terror trade, a canard that, along with the pestilence fear trade, never ends well.

But it may be okay yet. There will be some kind of buying opportunity upcoming for a trade at least. But don’t let gold perma-obsessives hoodwink you into thinking that the fundamentals are in line, because they are not. They are in line in gold’s ratios to some commodities (a bullish gold/oil ratio and a constructive gold/base metals ratio) but bond yield relationships and stock market blow off dynamics remain out ahead.

One thing I have written repeatedly is that with this sector, you have got to hate the perma pom poms when their plumage is at its most colorful and they are on a full frontal tout. Well, maybe hate is strong, but they at least need to be aggressively ignored.

Never missing an opportunity to post my favorite graphic, here we see the Macrocosm with its gold/commodities aspect working well, it’s “Community throws in the towel” aspect no doubt on the way and the China/India “Love Trade” right where it belongs (as a fundamental consideration), in a promoter’s imagination.

The biggies here are the stock market and the economy and both, as of now, are strong and/or stable. The next biggest (and their planets should be larger, but work with me here… ) are yield dynamics and public confidence. Each remains non-supportive for the gold sector as of this moment.

We have downside targets (as HUI starts to get oversold into the zone) on the counter-cyclical gold sector and longer-term charts to color some bigger and potentially more bullish perspective. But the important thing longer-term is going to be bond yield relationships and the risk ‘on’ trade’s blow off status, from which the economy and confidence may take their cues. Unless you’re some sort of whiz bang trader (unlike me), you need to have patience with this process as it plays out over the coming weeks or months.

Meanwhile, April Payrolls is on deck and it could get markets (and bond yields) jumping around. Any ups and downs in the gold sector however, will only be noise until we get a major washout and more of the sector’s actual fundamentals start to show signs of turning. But with a washout of some kind in progress, things are getting interesting at least.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 40-55 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter ;@BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits, RSS or sign up to receive posts directly by email (right sidebar).

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.