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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning

Currencies / Bitcoin Mar 17, 2018 - 03:48 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

Before we get to my technical take on the prospects for the Bitcoin price, apparently the crypto currencies were subject to a FUD attack on Friday, where FUD stands for 'Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt', that seems to be the automatic response of the crypto crowd to any bad news. So what happened to trigger this avalanche of FUD panic? Well Friday morning warnings popped into the email box of millions of PayPal customers including myself warning of dire consequences if we did not " Cease any activity that results in the trading or transfer of cryptocurrency", the full text of which follows below:


Warning email- Cease any activity that results in the trading or transfer of cryptocurrency

Dear Nadeem Walayat

We appreciate the fact that you chose PayPal to send and receive payments for your transactions.

While reviewing your account, we noticed that your activity involves the trading or transfer of cryptocurrency which is prohibited under our Acceptable Use Policy. As this is not permitted on the PayPal platform we ask that you cease any activity that results in the trading or transfer of cryptocurrency. If you continue to engage in this activity on PayPal, we'll be unable to continue offering our services.

You can view the complete PayPal Acceptable Use Policy by clicking the 'Legal' link at the bottom of any PayPal page and clicking 'PayPal Acceptable Use Policy'.

We appreciate your cooperation in this matter and ask that your continued use of PayPal be in accordance with the User Agreement and the Acceptable Use Policy.

This mailbox isn't monitored and you won't receive a response. For assistance, log in to your PayPal account and click Help at the bottom of any PayPal page.

Yours sincerely,

PayPal

So the first thing to do was to check that the email actually did come from paypal as it made it past the usual spam filters

The initial email to and from looked genuine.

However looking at the headers repeatedly revealed the domain mkts2944.com as the originating domain.

Who is mkts2944.com's registered to ? is it Paypal or some dubious scammer?

Domain Information
Domain:
mkt2944.com
Registrar:
MarkMonitor Inc.
Registration Date:
2009-08-17
Expiration Date:
2018-08-16
Updated Date:
2017-07-16
Status:
clientDeleteProhibited
clientTransferProhibited
clientUpdateProhibited
Name Servers:
ns1.p11.dynect.net
ns1.silverpop.com
ns2.p11.dynect.net
ns3.p11.dynect.net
ns4.p11.dynect.net

Registrant Contact
Name:
Domain Administrator
Organization:
International Business Machines Corporation
Street:
New Orchard Road,
City:
Armonk
State:
NY
Postal Code:
10504
Country:
US
Phone:
+1.9147654227
Email:
email@us.ibm.com

IBM! The sending domain is registered to big blue IBM!

Further more the IP address 74.112.67.243 resolves to Loxahatchee Groves, Florida, United States

OrgName: IBM
OrgId: IBMC-12
Address: 6303 barfield rd ne
City: Atlanta
StateProv: GA
PostalCode: 30328
Country: US
RegDate: 2016-05-05

Well that's a new one! IBM sending spam FUD attacks against crypto currencies, so no wonder the crypto crowd has been thrown into panic given that the email appears genuine.

There's not much out there on mkt2944.com however it suggests that someone has rented an email sending service from IBM to send out this mass mailing to paypal customers. Which leads us to the next big question. How did they get millions of PayPal customer email addresses?

Anyway the email is FAKE, it did not come from PayPal instead it appears to originate from an obscure domain registered to IBM.

So the next step is to log into my PayPal account and as expected there are NO warnings, therefore I am 85% certain at this point in time that this was a sophisticated FAKE email! The alternative 15% is because unfortunately PayPal cannot be trusted 100% i.e. they have been known to shut people out of their paypal accounts for feeble or even NO reason. But at this stage given that I have never transacted in a crypto via Paypal, then I am 85% certain this is a sophisticated FAKE PayPal warning.

The alternative could be that somehow someone paid me via a cryptocurrency through a third party and that is the trigger for this warning. Or that a paypal algorithm has deemed one ore more transactions involve cryptocurrency trading. Though without any message on my Paypal dashboard I currently give this a low 15% probability.

Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast 2018

My forecast expectations at the start of the year are for the bitcoin price to spike down to a low of $5,000.

02 Jan 2018 - Bitcoin Crash Not Over, Crypto Gamblers Prepare for Spike Down to $5,000

Bitcoin Price Forecast 2018 - Will 2017 Crypto Bubble Mania Repeat?

Whilst my update of early February stated that the Bitcoin price could go even lower than $5000 before hitting bottom i.e. slice through $5000, then $4000, $3000 and could even trade as low as $2,000.

05 Feb 2018 - Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom?

Bitcoin Price

The Bitcoin price of $8,000 is virtually where it was at my 5th Feb update of $8,075. However that price belies a lot of price volatility during the past 6 weeks which saw two rally's to $11,750 which gave much false hope to the crypto crowd only to be dashed as Bitcoin since the start of March has reverted to the downside, putting Bitcoin back to where it was over a month ago.

Technical Analysis

Support - is between $5000 and $6000, so a spike down into that zone is still the most probable forecast outcome for 2018.

Resistance - is now at the recent high of $11,750.

Trend - Despite the Feb rally the trend trajectory remains firmly down that continues to target at least $5000 and probably a trend down all the way to $2000.

Elliott Wave - Implies we are currently in a corrective Wave B, of an ABC bear market. Which means we still have a Wave C to go which means lower lows i.e. to below $6000. So elliott waves also confirm my long standing bearish expectations that the Bitcoin price could spike to below $5000, maybe as low as $2000.

The bottom line is that despite the February rally to $11,750 and the Bitcoin price currently being where it was when I last analysed it, technically nothing much has really changed and so the Bitcoin forecast remains in tact for first $5,000 to be achieved to be followed by a panic spike lower that could see the Bitcoin price trade to as low as $2000, something that few today can even imagine as I am sure the crypto crowd out there will label this analysis as just another FUD operation.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for my forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

Source and comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article61839.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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