Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20
Facebook (FB) AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 10th Feb 20
The US Constitution IS the Crisis - 10th Feb 20
Stock Market Correction Continues - 10th Feb 20
Useful Tips for Becoming a Better Man - 10th Feb 20
Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020? Part1 - 9th Feb 20
Could Silver Break-out like it did in 2011? - 9th Feb 20
The End of the Global Economy - 9th Feb 20
Fed to Stimulate in Any Crisis; Don’t Let Short-Term Events Bother You - 9th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

US Stock Market - Donald Loves Me, Donald Loves Me Not

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Apr 09, 2018 - 09:42 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

As everyone seems glued to their twitter accounts or their news feeds, the market has been both rallying and fading despite all the negative news of these trade wars that are supposedly going to tank our equity market.

I mean, its not like we began this correction well before trade wars began in earnest. Right? In fact, does any of this surprise you in any way, especially since the President certainly told us that these are some of the actions he will take even before he became POTUS. And, if you suggest otherwise, then you are simply not being honest with yourself.


Wednesday's action was a perfect point of how many fool themselves into believing that news is the primary driver of the market. While the market did drop overnight after China followed through on its promises of reactionary tariffs (which we knew about well before it occurred), many were quick to point to Wednesday’s rally as being “caused” by Larry Kudlow’s statements made later that day.

Now, if Kudlow had made this statement at 6:30am on Wednesday morning when the market actually struck a bottom, maybe you can point to a catalyst for the 110 point rally we had off the overnight Wednesday low; a rally which was almost twice as large as the decline.

But, Kudlow did not make his statement at 6:30 when the market bottomed. Rather, he made it much later in the day, after the market had recovered most of the overnight drop. How many of you even bothered to recognize that fact before you assumed the rally was "caused" by Kudlow? Yet, I am certain many of you were quick in accepting that the rally was certainly "caused" by Kudlow because that is what you were fed by the media and pundits.

Now, what if I told you that around 6:40am that morning, I posted a chart that showed the potential of the market rallying off that morning low up towards the 2620-2640 region? And, no, I had no clue what Kudlow was going to say, or that if anyone was even going to say anything at all.

You see, the news most often falls within the cycles we follow in the market and does not create them. And, any news that does not fit the cycle is summarily ignored by the market. While this sounds counter-intuitive to most market participants, those that follow the market very closely and have taken an honest look at market movements will certainly recognize the truth of my words.

And, it is for this reason that markets will often ignore bad news during an up-trend, and ignore good news during a downtrend. Weren’t any of you following the market in 2016 and 2017? It also makes a lot more sense of the market as compared to how most pundits attempt to fit their square pegs into rounds holes regarding market action based upon some of form of news.

So, when President Trump or any of his staff issue a statement or tweet, I would suggest you tune out the noise, and follow the patterns presented to us in the market. When you learn what to look for it will amaze you at how much all these news events are really simply noise. And, I can assure you it will make you a better trader and investor when you learn to tune out the noise.

As far as the market is concerned, pressure will remain down to lower lows if we remain below 2623 in the futures early this coming week. A strong rally over 2623ES, which exceeds the high we made last week will point us back up towards the March highs. And, such a rally would only extend this correction into the May/June time frame.

And, again, I want to reiterate that, as long as we remain over the 2400SPX region, I still maintain targets of 3000+ in the SPX before we see a 20%+ correction take hold.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the S&P 500.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules