Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Removing the Cloak from Gold

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Nov 27, 2018 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

The new Alchemist is out. What can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!

Banque de France and Gold

The latest edition of LBMA’s Alchemist focuses on the role of central banks in the gold market. Sylvie Goulard, Deputy Governor of Banque de France, wrote the first article, entitled Banque de France and Gold: Past and Future. . According to her, the central bank of France has always been a major player in the gold market. Indeed, in the 19th century, Paris was a major gold centre, while Napoleon (20 franc gold coin) was one of the iconic coins of the 19th and 20th century. And, since its creation in 1800, the Banque de France has held one of the largest gold and silver reserves in the world.


Even today, although French people use euro, which is purely fiat currency, the central bank holds about 60 percent of its total reserves in gold! In physical terms, the Banque de France maintains above 2,436 tons of bullion, which places it right behind the podium, as only the US, Germany and Italy (and the IMF) keep more gold in the vaults of their central banks. It means that France’s national gold reserves are valued at around $96 billion, or about 4 percent of the country’s GDP.

The interesting thing is that the Banque de France stores its gold in the famous Souterraine, which is a huge underground vault situated 29 meters below the level of the River Seine, street level (or 40 m below the suspended auditorium).

Removing the Cloak from Central Bank Gold Operations

Another insightful article about the links between central banks and gold is Removing the Cloak from Central Bank Gold Operations by Isabelle Strauss-Kahn, who is a consultant now, but previously worked for the Banque de France, the World Bank, and the Bank of International Settlements.

She describes a few interesting periods of the gold market. One of them is the so-called Brown Bottom, or the sale of more than half of the UK’s gold reserves in a series of auctions to be operated by the Bank of England. The price of gold dropped as a result, as the sales exacerbated the fear that some big gold holders, such as European central banks would follow, especially in the context of introduction of the euro, and the price of gold would collapse. This is why the first Central Bank Gold Agreement was signed in Washington DC on 26th of September
1999 to limit official sales and reduce uncertainty in the market, setting the psychological stage for the next gold bull market.

The author concludes that central banks still do consider gold as a reserve asset which is useful to hold, even if it does not pay any dividend or a high return.

Recession, Rates, and the US Retail Investor

The last article we would like to discuss is the Recession, Rates, and the US Retail Investor by Suki Cooper, Precious Metals Analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. The article is not about central banks, but it provides a few interesting insights about the gold market outlook. For example, she forecasts US GDP growth to slow to 2.6 from 2.9 percent in 2018. Given that we are unlikely to see a recession in 2019 in the US, while inflation will not rise much above the Fed’s target, gold prices will not rally significantly. However, the author maintains positive outlook for gold prices and expects them to trade towards $1,300 per ounce over the coming months.

The justification for the bullish forecast is that the Fed should enter the final stages of its hiking cycle, possibly falling behind the curve. But the US central bank does not seem to want to drop its policy of gradual tightening of its monetary policy. The trade wars are also cited as a supportive factor. However, the impact of geopolitical risks on gold prices is often overstated. Surely, if the renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine transform into something larger, we could see a short-term gains in gold. But investors should remember that numerous risks have recently failed to trigger a flight into gold. Stay tuned!

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in