Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Removing the Cloak from Gold

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Nov 27, 2018 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

The new Alchemist is out. What can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!

Banque de France and Gold

The latest edition of LBMA’s Alchemist focuses on the role of central banks in the gold market. Sylvie Goulard, Deputy Governor of Banque de France, wrote the first article, entitled Banque de France and Gold: Past and Future. . According to her, the central bank of France has always been a major player in the gold market. Indeed, in the 19th century, Paris was a major gold centre, while Napoleon (20 franc gold coin) was one of the iconic coins of the 19th and 20th century. And, since its creation in 1800, the Banque de France has held one of the largest gold and silver reserves in the world.


Even today, although French people use euro, which is purely fiat currency, the central bank holds about 60 percent of its total reserves in gold! In physical terms, the Banque de France maintains above 2,436 tons of bullion, which places it right behind the podium, as only the US, Germany and Italy (and the IMF) keep more gold in the vaults of their central banks. It means that France’s national gold reserves are valued at around $96 billion, or about 4 percent of the country’s GDP.

The interesting thing is that the Banque de France stores its gold in the famous Souterraine, which is a huge underground vault situated 29 meters below the level of the River Seine, street level (or 40 m below the suspended auditorium).

Removing the Cloak from Central Bank Gold Operations

Another insightful article about the links between central banks and gold is Removing the Cloak from Central Bank Gold Operations by Isabelle Strauss-Kahn, who is a consultant now, but previously worked for the Banque de France, the World Bank, and the Bank of International Settlements.

She describes a few interesting periods of the gold market. One of them is the so-called Brown Bottom, or the sale of more than half of the UK’s gold reserves in a series of auctions to be operated by the Bank of England. The price of gold dropped as a result, as the sales exacerbated the fear that some big gold holders, such as European central banks would follow, especially in the context of introduction of the euro, and the price of gold would collapse. This is why the first Central Bank Gold Agreement was signed in Washington DC on 26th of September
1999 to limit official sales and reduce uncertainty in the market, setting the psychological stage for the next gold bull market.

The author concludes that central banks still do consider gold as a reserve asset which is useful to hold, even if it does not pay any dividend or a high return.

Recession, Rates, and the US Retail Investor

The last article we would like to discuss is the Recession, Rates, and the US Retail Investor by Suki Cooper, Precious Metals Analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. The article is not about central banks, but it provides a few interesting insights about the gold market outlook. For example, she forecasts US GDP growth to slow to 2.6 from 2.9 percent in 2018. Given that we are unlikely to see a recession in 2019 in the US, while inflation will not rise much above the Fed’s target, gold prices will not rally significantly. However, the author maintains positive outlook for gold prices and expects them to trade towards $1,300 per ounce over the coming months.

The justification for the bullish forecast is that the Fed should enter the final stages of its hiking cycle, possibly falling behind the curve. But the US central bank does not seem to want to drop its policy of gradual tightening of its monetary policy. The trade wars are also cited as a supportive factor. However, the impact of geopolitical risks on gold prices is often overstated. Surely, if the renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine transform into something larger, we could see a short-term gains in gold. But investors should remember that numerous risks have recently failed to trigger a flight into gold. Stay tuned!

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in