Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - John_Mauldin
2.Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - Andrew_Butter
5.Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - Troy_Bombardia
6.More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - Troy_Bombardia
7.US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - Troy_Bombardia
8.TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - James_Quinn
9.How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
10.This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - Patrick_Watson
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast 2019 - 18th Dec 18
Will US Government Shutdown Cause The Stock Market To Crash? - 18th Dec 18
The Coming Financial Storm - 18th Dec 18
Jeff Gundlach thinks that a Stocks Bear Market has started. Is he Right? - 18th Dec 18
Gold’s Not An Investment – You Won’t Get Rich - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market At Medium-Term Lows, Which Direction is Next? - 17th Dec 18
This Stock Will Drive America’s 5G Buildout - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market Turn In The Tide - Have a Happy Bear Market! - 17th Dec 18
How A NASA Scientist Could Trigger The Next Cannabis Boom - 17th Dec 18
iShares Russell 2000 IWM Leading Stock Market Decline - 17th Dec 18
Where is the Dow Stock Market Santa Rally? - 17th Dec 18
With Weaker Climate Consensus, Expect Elevated Climate Change - 16th Dec 18
SMIGGLE Advent Calendar 2018 UK Contents - What You Get Look Inside Review - 16th Dec 18
Is there a Lump of Coal in Santa's Stock Market Bag? - 16th Dec 18
This Market Will Drive Gold in 2019… - 16th Dec 18
Gerald Celente:Central Banks Can’t Stop a 2019 Debt Disaster - 16th Dec 18
Gold Stocks Triple Breakout - 15th Dec 18
The stock market fails to rally each day. What’s next for stocks - 14th Dec 18
How Low Could the S&P 500 Go? - 14th Dec 18
An Industrial to Stock Trade: Is Boeing a BUY Here? - 14th Dec 18
Will the Arrest of Huawei Executive Derail Trade War Truce? - 14th Dec 18
Trump vs the Fed: Who Wins? - 13th Dec 18
Expect Gold & Silver to Pullback Before the Next Move Higher - 13th Dec 18
Dollar Index Trends, USDJPY Setting Up - 13th Dec 18
While The Stocks Bulls Fiddle With The 'Fundamentals,' Rome Burns - 13th Dec 18
The Historic Role of Silver - 13th Dec 18
Natural Gas Price Setup for a Big Move Lower - 13th Dec 18
How to Get 20% Off Morrisons Weekly Supermarket Shopping - 13th Dec 18
Gold Price Analysis: Closer To A Significant Monetary Event - 13th Dec 18
Where is the Stock Market Santa Claus Rally? - 12th Dec 18
Politics and Economics in Times of Crisis - 12th Dec 18
Owning Precious Metals in an IRA - 12th Dec 18
Ways to Improve the Value of Your Home - 12th Dec 18
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts - 12th Dec 18
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux - 12th Dec 18
Wow Your Neighbours With the Best Christmas Projector Lights for Holidays 2018! - 12th Dec 18
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World - 11th Dec 18
The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios - 11th Dec 18
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish - 11th Dec 18
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? - 11th Dec 18
Making Money through Property Investment - 11th Dec 18
Brexit: What Will it Mean for Exchange Rates? - 11th Dec 18
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress - 10th Dec 18
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

DXY: “The Reports Of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated”

Currencies / US Dollar Dec 03, 2018 - 03:44 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Currencies

For those literary enthusiasts amongst us, you would recognize the title as the line supposedly penned by Mark Twain when it was inquired of him while in London regarding a published obituary written in the United States.

However, more accurately, his response to the reporter’s inquiry was “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” But, I digress.


When Mr. Powell reported that rates may not be rising any further, many were writing the obituary for the US Dollar. But, just like with Twain, I think this obituary is a bit premature.

I am going to repeat what I said over the last few weeks, as it is still quite applicable:

“One of the benefits of using Elliott Wave analysis is that it puts the market into a larger context which cannot be gleaned from other methods. In the DXY, as know that the market is tracing out a b-wave. And, what we know about b-waves from Elliott Wave analysis is that they are quite variable in nature. That certainly seems to be what we are experiencing.

Last weekend, I noted that “until I see a break down below the 95.45 level in impulsive fashion, I have to at least recognize the potential of the DXY to extend up as high as the 98/99 region.”

The choppy structure within which we have been navigating the DXY is still suggesting we are in an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the green b-wave. And, as known within ending diagonals, there are many starts and stops, along with whipsaw action.

On a micro structure, I am unsure if the current rally off the 96 region is the a-wave of the next a-b-c structure higher, or a b-wave in an a-b-c retrace. Unfortunately, these are the issues with which we must grapple when dealing with these types of structures. For this reason, I am going to have to slightly modify my support again to the 95.35-95.50 region.”

At the end of the day, I don’t think there is any more insight that I can provide regarding the dollar chart. I still think the market is heading up to at least the 99 region to complete an ending diagonal. And, it will likely continue to be choppy, as that is just how these diagonals take shape.

But, I will add that until we are able to move through the 97.55 level, we may test support noted above one more time.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules