Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Investing lessons from the 1987 Stock Market Crash From Who Beat it - 20th Oct 19
Trade Wars: Facts And Fallacies - 20th Oct 19
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Will the Nasdaq Hit 10,000 This Year?

Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks Jan 23, 2019 - 07:35 AM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Stock-Markets Who would have thought I would be forecasting that the Nasdaq could zoom to 10,000 this year?

Two things have changed my perspective in recent months: The Q4 2018 crash didn’t approach the typical 40% loss in the first two to three months, as was typical of most major bubbles… and my newer 90-Year Bubble Buster Cycle.

That 90-year Cycle is a “double variation’ of my proven 45-Year Innovation Cycle. It has marked the greatest bubble peaks and “resets” since the Industrial Revolution (1837 to 1842 and 1929 to 1932).


If the current correction doesn’t crash down much harder by early February – which doesn’t look likely at this point – then a final blow-off rally would be most consistent with past major bubbles, especially the ones that hit on this 90-year cycle.

What I’ve Been Looking At…

I’ve been looking at the finally bubble rallies on all the key indices: The S&P 500, the Dow, and especially the Nasdaq because it’s the lead bubble of the lot.

What I am noticing is that the best support on the final rallies since early 2009 come from a linear trend-line through the bottoms, but the best rally and upside targets come from exponential trend-lines through the tops.

Here’s my best chart for the leading Nasdaq… 

https://economyandmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Nasdaq-Current-Dark-Window.jpg

What This Chart Is Telling Us…

First note that bottom linear trend-line. It comes through at around 5,500 in early February.

The same trend-line on the S&P 500 comes through around 2,300 currently and will be hit first, and hence, be the first warning, if broken, that this Nasdaq support line could be hit. Again, the Nasdaq is the trump card here.

Next note the progressive nature of the rally.

The first wave into 2011 was more normal.

The next wave into 2015 was more exponential.

The most recent wave into late 2018 was more exponential again.

The markets are making similar point-gains in 38% of the time in each successive wave – that is THE definition of exponential and bubbles are the most exponential scenarios.

What Does This Mean?

So, if the markets can hold key support ahead, especially by early February, the next rally would project to around 9,500 on an exponential trend, or as high as 10,000 if it makes similar point gains to the last rally in 38% of the time. That takes us into late 2019/early 2020.

From the recent lows of 6,190, that’s a 53% to 62% gain.

From the bottom trend-line of 5,500 if reached, that’s 73% to 82%!

If we can hold the 2,300 level on the S&P 500 in the next month, this bullish scenariobecomes much more likely.

Should we hold the bottom trend-line on the Nasdaq, around 5,500 currently, it could still follow this extremely bullish scenario.

If the S&P breaks 2,300 substantially suggesting a top in late 2018, then it could just retest its highs, while the Nasdaq rings the big bell with major new highs, assuming it holds 5,500. That would also be consistent with past bubble tops.

I cover the most basic bullish and bearish scenarios in the latest January edition of Boom & BustDon’t miss that issue and keep it handy as I’ll refer to it in updates in the weeks and months ahead.

One way or the other, 2019 looks to be very different than what many on Wall Street expect. It’s very likely to either be very bullish or very bearish. Not the middle ground they’re suggestion. And I’m still favoring the bullish scenario unless proven otherwise.

We will keep you updated.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

P.S. Another way to stay ahead is by reading the 27 simple stock secrets that our Seven-Figure Trader says are worth $588,221. You’ll find the details here.

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2019 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules