Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Feb 22, 2019 - 05:16 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

Over in the gold patch things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence.checkWednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.


In the very few days immediately before that $20/oz. pullback the gold “community” threw itself a gathering of the bullish clans. On just a quick look around the gold websites some quotes popped out from 2 days before the pullback, and one day before Wednesday’s reversal. It’s crickets no more…

“It’s been a long time coming so enjoy this day as there will be many more to come. It’s just getting started.” (2.19.19)

“Gold appears to be rallying from the final right shoulder in a multi-shouldered inverse H&S bull continuation pattern. Incredibly, that pattern itself appears to be just the head of a much more gargantuan pattern with a target price of $3000!” (2.19.19)

“What is going on is that gold is in the early stages of a parabolic slingshot uptrend as shown, that should soon vault it above the key resistance approaching and around $1400. Once it breaks above this resistance it is expected to accelerate dramatically.” (2.19.19)

Now, I am not going to affirm or dispute the bullish views above. The point of this article is only to note that these views are coming out of the woodwork across the “gold analyst” community. At points of max greed and max enthusiasm, the precious metals get bonked. It’s almost ritualistic. Sentimentrader has been showing gold sentiment as ‘over bullish’ for some time now and on Thursday we finally got a pullback (to the first valid support area at the top of the bull flag).

This satisfies gold for a sharp pullback to clean out sentiment to a degree, short-term. If the rally to big picture resistance is still on, it need not drop further. But a very key support area now surrounding 1290 is also noted per this chart from a recent NFTRH update. We have after all, noted sharp reactions in many markets after the public is subjected to the old “GOLDEN CROSS!!” routine by the media. Gold’s golden cross of the SMA 50 above the SMA 200 came in January.

Indeed, gold seems destined to reach the key bear/bull line of demarcation before long for another kick at the bullish can per the monthly chart below.

What does gold have going for it, technically? Well, for one thing the more times a resistance area is tested (this would be in essence, #4) the weaker it tends to become.

What does gold have going against it, from a sentiment standpoint? Everybody… you, me, grandma and grandpa all see that bear/bull line. What’s more, so too does a “community” of gold experts who’ve waited years to be able to bullhorn the news of gold’s inevitable $3000/oz. price.

As for the silver chart above, it is really not relevant to this article. It’s just part of a chart sometimes used in NFTRH for bigger picture perspective on the metals. However, silver bugs will note that there is a lot of price inflation that needs to take place before they may pronounce a new bull market.

This is not a fundamental article and not much a technical one either. There are lots more signals, time frames and fundamental considerations we are tracking consistently, as we have been since the crickets were the loudest sound in the “community”. But a couple of points can be taken from the above…

  1. Gold is still in a bullish trend after taking a much needed sentiment haircut and…
  2. though we have several positive indicators and technical trends in play (for gold and the miners) it’s not in the bag yet. Don’t let the increasingly bullish pronouncements now on display convince you otherwise.

If gold and gold stocks do continue to grind out a bullish trend and trip our indicators (one of which in particular is on the verge) there will be plenty of time and opportunity to position more seriously for a real bull phase. But it is not advised to let starry eyed bullish pronouncements stimulate your bullish emotions.

Now, if you want to read some comprehensive and quality fundamental (and bullish) analysis on gold check out this report from Sprott portfolio manager (and NFTRH subscriber, ;-)), Trey Reik: 2019 Top 10 List. For a bit of a cautionary view, you can also check out Tom McClellan’s latest article: Gold’s Fellow Travelers Refute its Higher High (why not bring in a range of views, amid the gathering bullishness?).

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas, all archived/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar and get even more by joining our free eLetter. Or follow via Twitter ;@BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2019 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in