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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy

Politics / BrExit Sep 11, 2019 - 05:04 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Boris Johnson's strategy towards achieving an exit from the EU by the deadline of 31st October (extended from 29th March) is to prorogue Parliament for 5 weeks as of midnight 9th September, returning on the 14th of October in attempts at preventing the remain establishment from subverting the exit date of 31st of October.

However, this has galvanised the Remain establishment to erase Boris Johnson's meager majority of 1. That and 21 remain Tory MP's betrayed their party by voting against the government in last weeks vote to force Boris Johnson to go and beg the EU for another extension, likely for at least 3 months though the decision as to how long will be in the EU's hands.


In response to which Boris Johnson stated that he would "rather be found dead in a ditch" then seek a further extension to existing from the EU.

Boris Johnson's Plan B was to trigger an early General Election on the 15th of October on the assumption that the Tories would gain a few seats by offering Brexit certainty, that and purging the party of 30 or so Remainer Extremists, and given that Corbyn's Labour party has been permanently demanding a general election for the past 2 years would allow BJ to ensure Brexit happens by the 31st of October deadline.

However, to call an election, 2/3rds of MP's need to vote under the fixed term parliaments act. And now Labour after 2 years of crying wolf, has decided that they don't want an early general election anymore, fearing loss of MP's in their own vote LEAVE constituencies. Nevertheless a vote will be held on Monday seeking to trigger a general election which is likely to fail as the Labour party has chickened out of letting the people decide who governs them and thus the next general election looks set to take place after the 31st of October 2019

Furthermore REMAINER's in charge of Parliament are likely to pass a bill into law on Monday that demands BJ request an extension from the EU by the 19th of October, something that he is loath to do and thus the remain media establishment is peddling the line that BJ would be breaking the law and be at risk of being arrested and imprisoned should he fail to comply with the Remainer Establishment which illustrates just how CHAOTIC the situation in Westminister has become!

Therefore there will be a battle between the Government and Parliament to prevent an extension to the deadline.

Current State of Westminster Chaos

1. An election on the 15th of October, in fact before the 1st of November now looks highly unlikely.

2. BJ is being forced to write a letter to the EU requesting an extension of at least 3 months by the 19th of October, that he will seek to avoid doing.

3. Another Tory cabinet member Remainer Amber Rudd resigned on Saturday, further weakening BJ's government.

So the remain establishment is in the ascendancy and it is not clear that BJ is capable of counteracting this trend which suggests he could even resign before the end of October rather than be forced to be on his knees for another EU exit extension.

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: https://www.patreon.com/posts/british-pound-vs-29840414

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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