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UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth

ElectionOracle / General Election 2019 Dec 11, 2019 - 12:21 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.


What UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election Result 2019

UK General Election Forecast Analysis

What the economy Predicts for the UK General Election is 1 of 5 pieces of sub analysis all of which was first made available to Patrons who support my work (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th December 2019)

  • UK Economy - GDP Growth
  • UK INFLATION - CPI / RPI / REAL
  • UK Unemployment Fake Statistics
  • REAL TERMS AVERAGE EARNINGS
  • UK General Election Tory Seats Projections

The aim of this series of analysis is to further fine tune my core election forecast based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections, house prices momentum that concluded in a forecast of 322 seats first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast).

However the whole of my analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work:

  1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
  2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
  3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
  4. Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
  5. Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
  6. Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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