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Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920

Politics / Pandemic Feb 23, 2020 - 02:10 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The latest Coronavirus / COVID19 pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket higher, now totaling over 600 infected and 6 deaths. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases! This whilst reports of mass cremations taking place.

Meanwhile in Europe, Italy has an outbreak under way with over 100 testing positive and 2 deaths with several hundred thousands of people put under quarantine, a taste of what is to come to Europe as the virus is clearly not being contained. This whilst western health care institutions such as the NHS following the Chinese playbook of painting a picture of being fully prepared to cope with outbreaks. Despite the fact that the NHS can barely cope with regular flu let alone a virus that is 15X more deadly resulting in 100X as many seriously ill patients than influenza.


Whilst Iran's tally of infected has jumped from 5 to 43, and deaths from 2 to 8 that likely is just the tip of the Coronavirus iceberg which given the rate of growth could soon number in the thousands, that's if Iran has the capacity to test suspected cases in any significant number.

Coronavirus Pandemic Day 76 - 22nd Feb 2020 Update

My forecast for the total number of infections and deaths by 22nd of Feb 2020 vs reported and estimated:

  Infections Deaths
Forecast 507081 16480
Reported Actual 78651 2460
Probable 540267 4920
% Diff 107% 30%

 

Were this trend to continue into the end of February 2020 then the number of infected would total 1.06 million, whilst the number of deaths would total 9,702. So the latest data implies a wider spread but a lower mortality rate of about 0.91%.

The trend trajectory remains for the number of infections to reach at least 1 million by the end of February, though with a lower case fatality rate than the reported 3%. So less people will die from the virus but it will still be about 15 times more deadly than seasonal flu, so definitely nothing to get complacent about.

For methodology behind the estimated probable number of infections and deaths see my recent video -

Coronavirus Pandemic Outside China Update - 22nd Feb 2020

Whilst China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, meanwhile the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate, at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping holes ont he world Map Africa and Central & South America, to imagine that there is just 1 infection in Egypt given the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continent, busy forging the backbone for their emerging Chinese empire, implies that the number infected in Africa and South America already runs into the several hundreds, that as of yet remain unrecorded.

Nevertheless, the number of infections outside of China overnight has leapt by 330 to 1715 showing convergence towards my trend forecast that expects a total of 129,250 infections by the end of March 2020.

UK Coronavirus Trend Forecast Day 26 - 22nd Feb 2020 Update

The total number of infections recorded in the UK continues to hold steady at 9, which in my opinion is just the calm before the coronavirus storm as my forecast as of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in 90 deaths. Today's news is one of 100 travelers from Wuhan being let out of quarantine after 14 days despite the fact some chinese patients have been found to go for 28 days before showing symptoms. Worse still are the 32 flown back from the Diamond Princess cruise ship a number of whom are likely to be infected.

The bottom line is that China through it's draconian measures to control the spread has succeeded in buying the world time, maybe 2 to 3 weeks, which has slowed the progress of the virus across the wider world, however the failure of the virus to spread appears to have lulled many into a false sense of security especially if one focuses just on the official Chinese statistics, Therefore I still expect widespread outbreaks across the world.

Where if the virus spread is inline with seasonal flu i.e. to infect around 15% of the worlds population then at a case fatality rate of 0.64% could result in as many as 7.5 million deaths. So we are still definitely in the calm before the Coronavirus storm stage.

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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