Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Feb 24, 2020 - 02:15 PM GMT

Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020
QE4EVER
As Goes January So Goes the Year
Short-term Trend Analysis
Long-term Trend Analysis
ELLIOTT WAVES
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
TRADING THE DOW
Will Trump Win US Presidential Election 2020?

TREND ANALYSIS

Short-term Trend Analysis

The Dow had a powerful bull run to a high of 29,380 early January that it just beat a trading day ago! So Fridays dip on face value is a reaction to hitting resistance.

Furthermore the January correction was orderly, bouncing off of the previous high of 28,200. So in technical terms the current trend implies that the Dow is pausing before making another run for 30k. Even the MACD has unwound most of its overbought state of the past 3 months. The only negative is that the Dow breached the uptrend line during January's correction, but even there it has managed to recover to back above the original trendline despite Fridays drop.

Also there is a 30% probability that the Dow made a double top pattern which would target a drop to 27k. Though again it is a relatively low probability at this point in time.

The rest of this analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Dow stocks index has first been made available to Patrons who support my work (Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?).

Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020
QE4EVER
As Goes January So Goes the Year
Short-term Trend Analysis
Long-term Trend Analysis
ELLIOTT WAVES
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
TRADING THE DOW
Will Trump Win US Presidential Election 2020?

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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