Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in the METAVERSE Stocks Universe - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 - 8th Dec 21
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap - 8th Dec 21
The Lithium Breakthrough That Could Transform The Mining Industry - 8th Dec 21
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse - 7th Dec 21
How to Read Your Smart Meter - Economy 7, Day and Night Rate Readings SMETS2 EDF - 7th Dec 21
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares - 7th Dec 21
INTEL Bargain Teck Stocks Trading at 15.5% Discount Sale - 7th Dec 21
US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend - 7th Dec 21
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally - 7th Dec 21
The New Tech That Could Take Tesla To $2 Trillion - 7th Dec 21
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Extending Phase Two?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 May 12, 2021 - 10:23 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase two from 3853 does not look complete.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net


Extending Phase Two?

Cycles:  Looking ahead!

90-yr cycle – Last lows: 1843-1933. Next low: ~2023

40-yr cycle -- Last lows: 1942 -1982. Next low: ~2022

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low: ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of QCharts)

IWM - SPX (weekly)

SPX made a new all-time high today!  IWM made a new all-time high eight weeks ago!  We know what this disparity has suggested in the past:  a market correction is coming.  There is no reason to believe that it will be any different, this time.  Unless, of course, IWM loses its relative weakness and starts to make new highs. 



SPX daily chart

SPX is being pulled in different directions by the Nasdaq which is correcting and the DJIA which is making daily all-time highs.  As a result, the intention of this index has become unclear.  After rising from the 3853 low, it made two consecutive short-term tops: one from 4191 on 4/16 which brought about a 73-point correction, and another from 4219 on 4/29 which resulted in a 100-point pullback and ended on 5/04.  Since then, SPX has already made a new all-time high and appears to have started a new uptrend which could prolong phase two -- but perhaps not by much. 

First, the relative weakness exhibited by IWM suggests that a deeper correction should soon be taking place.  Second, the P&F pattern is more suggestive of a top than of a base.  And third, a dependable short-term cycle is scheduled to bottom around the 17th.  That cycle is also obvious on the DJIA which should be in the process of topping any day, now.  This would fit with the current SPX structure which may require another day or two to complete.

Making a short-term top is still the preferred scenario with a potential 4240-4260 target max.  What happens next will depend on how much weakness will be triggered by the short-term cycle and if the correction can extend outside of the purple channel and below the 4120 level.                                



SPX hourly chart

The hourly chart does not add much to the analysis of the daily chart, except perhaps to show more clearly that the move which started on the 4th has a structure which is incomplete, and which should take SPX a little higher before completion.  The index will have to move outside of the purple uptrend line and below the 4120 level to give a sell signal suggesting that phase two is now complete.  It would be best if price remained below the pink upper trend line as it makes its short-term high.      

  •  
  • UUP (dollar ETF) DLY ($USD chart is not available from this data provider)
  •  
  • UUP barely bounced before dropping lower, almost reaching the lower trend line of the main channel from 5/14 where it found support twice before.  Looking at the longer- term chart, it looks like a retest of the 2018 low above which it should hold for some time. 
  •  
  •  
  • GDX (gold miners)-DLY
  •  
  • GDX is still pushing higher after making what appears to have been an intermediate-term low.  Another .60 would put it against the top of its corrective channel where some temporary resistance may be found before it can push to the 39-40 level suggested by the P&F chart.  The negative divergence showing in the CCI does not look serious and could easily be dispelled by a continued advance.
  •  
  • PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp-DLY)
  •  
  • PAAS found resistance from a secondary trend line 35 and is consolidating.  It may not remain there for long since the oscillators and the P&F chart suggest a move to 39-40 could take place, next.
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • BNO (Brent oil fund) DLY.
  •  
  • With negative divergence showing in its CCI, BNO may need to pull back for some additional consolidation before pushing to a new high.
  •  
  •  
  • SUMMARY
  •  

SPX was not able to extend its 100-point correction and made a new high.  It is possible that phase two is not yet complete.

Andre

Free trial subscription

With a trial subscription, you will have access to the same information that is given to paid subscribers, but for a limited time-period.   Over the years, I have developed an expertise in P&F charting (price projection), cycles (timing), EWT (structure), and general technical analysis which enables me to warn subscribers of pending reversals in market trends and how far that trend can potentially carry.  For a FREE 2-week trial, subscription options and payment plans, I encourage you to visit my website at www.marketurningpoints.com.

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in