Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Atea Pharmaceuticals - AVIR - X10 Stock for Max Risk

Companies / BioTech Jul 04, 2021 - 06:24 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies

Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge

Why has my focus shifted to biotech stocks and not more tech stocks?

Firstly, I have been investing in biotech stocks for DECADES, it's just that since 2015 my focus shifted to the emerging AI mega-trend to make sure I was invested to capitalise on a trend that was clear to me would span DECADES, at the time I thought I was probably getting in late on the AI Mega-trend but clearly that is always the case! WE ALWAYS THINK we're late to the party but this trend is going to run right into the end of the 2030's

This also explains why I hold the likes of GSK and JNJ amongst a string of smaller cap biotech stocks many of which have been disappearing from my portfolio over the years usually due to being taken over as it looks likely to be the case for GW Pharma later this year. So I need to replenish this once much loved and now neglected stock sector with a string of new smaller cap high risk stocks for the next 5 to 10 years.


Secondly, our beloved AI stocks have been BID UP to high valuations, yes including Google, so they are not CHEAP, even after a 10% to 15% correction i.e. the likes of Microsoft and Amazon are discounting a lot of future earnings growth! Of course that does not necessarily mean that they are about to fall to what I would consider to be fair value let lone cheap levels as they did during March 2020 because at the end of the day they are GOOD stocks so usually command a healthy premium to invest in.

However, during the course of this exercise I am repeatedly finding that the biotech stocks are tending to be greatly unloved! Especially when one compares them to the barmy valuations that many of the smaller cap tech stocks that populate the likes of ARK INVEST have been lifted to such as TESLA and SQAURE and most of the rest.

So this does appear to be an opportune time to go on the hunt for smaller cap higher risk biotech stocks.

RISK RATINGS

I am also adding a risk rating to the high risk stocks where 1 is lowest risk and 10 highest risk in terms of something going wrong and the stock effectively crashing into becoming a penny stock or even going bust within the next 5 years. This is based on the sum of all my analysis of each stock and given my risk averse nature then most of the stocks will have a low probability of actually going bust within the next 5 years. Still this rating will give an extra measure of risk vs reward when entertaining potential position sizes.

Atea Pharmaceuticals - AVIR $22 - X10 for Max Risk 10

Have I saved the best till last? Atea Pharmaceuticals focused on discovering, developing and commercialising ANTIVIRAL therapeutics for patients suffering VIRAL infections, so one would think the stock has soared into the stratosphere, yes it had but not right now for 2 reasons. 1. Pharma sector is unloved, 2. It's a too small a cap stock for the big funds, i.e. $2 billion is too small for most of the fund managers out there. For instance the likes of Buffets Berkshire can only really focus on investing in mega-corps given the size of their fund. Which means we could be looking at one of those perfect 10X stocks! But first the fundamentals, trades on a racy PE of 37, but it is a small cap stock, PEG ratio is just 0.4! That is more than just good that is a pricing mismatch. Forecast ROE is a healthy 25% over the next 3 years and from what I can tell the company has NO DEBT! I hope they are not fiddling the books! Just to be sure there's no funny business going on I checked to see if insiders are selling stock, NO, in fact over the past few months insiders have bought $20 million of stock! Looking further into its stock activity reveals a company called FMR LLC quietly building a up a stake that has bought up 13% of the company over the past 12 months, FMR better known as Fidelity Management and Research. Clearly FMR have spotted this hidden gem and have been busy trying to buy as much stock as they can without sending the stock price soaring.

Looking at the stock price chart and the only thing that comes to mind is what he hell happened here? Looks like a bloodbath went from $30 to $95 and now down to $22!

So the stock charts a blood bath, but the fundamentals look good, and there's no point in generating buying levels for this stock chart because there is literally empty space below i.e. the stock is now trading lower than it's IPO of $24,. So the Buying level is where it is already trading $22. It's worth a punt as unless there is some funny business going on with the company accounts, It's worth a stake so I will definitely be buying some Atea stock. Though given it's price chart it is going to have to be classed as a VERY HIGH RISK stock i.e. I can tell it is going to be volatile as hell! Gyrating all over the place towards new highs. Anyway I am going to buy a small stake and see what happens as given it's current price of $22 it could easily X10 but then again half again to $10, that is the risk vs reward of high risk stocks for when a stock is an obvious good buy then it is too late because the price will already be trading at $200. Anyway, we will find out in due course. I'll be buying Atea to 22, all or nothing, invest and forget for X10, worth the risk vs the reward i.e. risk 100% for a possible 1000%+, but the price chart won't be pretty to watch!

High Risk Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels

Here is my new high risk stocks table which was necessary to separate from my main AI stocks table as I will be adding at least 10 more smaller cap higher risk stocks to this list over the next few weeks as I complete my high risk stocks analysis binge at the rate of screening 6 stocks an hour.

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that concludes in my latest biotech stocks with the potential to X10 over the coming years Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Topics Include:

  • Invest and Forget
  • Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review
  • AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness
  • RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE!
  • HIGH RISK STOCK BUYING LEVELS
  • RISK RATINGS
  • WESTERN DIGITAL - WDC $71 - CHIA! - Risk 1
  • Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge
  • Biotech stock 1 - Cheap Low Risk Pharma - Risk 1
  • Biotech stock 2 - HIGH RISK GENE EDITING - Risk 9
  • Biotech stock 3 - Low Risk 2
  • Biotech stock 4 - X10 for Max Risk 10
  • High Risk Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
  • Covid India Black Mold Epidemic
  • Bitcoin and Raven Coin Buying Levels

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Inlcuding access to my latest analysis -

Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

  • Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
  • Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
  • Lessons Learned
  • Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
  • BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
  • Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
  • Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
  • Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
  • Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
  • Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
  • BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
  • Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
  • US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
  • BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
  • Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
  • Bitcoin Trend Forecast
  • Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
  • Alternative Scenarios
  • My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
  • Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
  • Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
  • Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
  • Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
  • Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
  • Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
  • Crypto's 7 to 10
  • Creating The Perfect Crypto
  • How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
  • CHIA SCAM COIN
  • Binance vs Coinbase
  • Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?

My analysis schedule includes:

  • Financial Crisis 2.0 - 80% done
  • More X10 Biotech Tech Stocks - 60% done
  • UK House Prices Trend Analysis - 10% done
  • How to Get Rich! - 70% done
  • US Dollar and British Pound analysis
  • Gold and SIlver Price Analysis

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.\

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst investing in biotech stocks.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2021 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in