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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 12th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 12, 2009 - 11:59 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1219.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target.


The March NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50 pts. at 1222.00 as of 5:42 AM CST. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1278.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1321.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1219.07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.25. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline below the 20- day moving average crossing at 891.70. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 853.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 915.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 891.70. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 902.30. First support is the overnight low crossing at 880.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 853.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 1.90 pts. at 883.60 as of 5:47 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as they extend last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-09. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 131-23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 130-01.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was lower overnight as it extends last Thursday's decline below the 10-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 35.13 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 43.12. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47. First support is the overnight low crossing at 38.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 35.13.

February heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.54 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 185.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 166.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 185.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 127.84.

February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 124.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 107.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.21.

February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 5.245 then psychological support crossing at 5.000 are February's next downside targets. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.240 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of January. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.727. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.807. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.423. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.245.

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CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.41 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 84.98 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 84.98. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 85.34. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 81.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.43.

The March Euro was slightly lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, broken resistance crossing at 130.680 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.101 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.983. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.101. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 132.830. Second support is broken resistance crossing at 130.680.

The March British Pound was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.5544 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.4329 would renew the decline off December's high. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.5356. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4887. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4791.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9178 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9130. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9178. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .8872. Second support is the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 86.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.23. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.33. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.72.

The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .11036 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-December rally crossing at .10331 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .11169. Second resistance is December's high crossing at .11492. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10940. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .10567.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was lower overnight and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 854.90. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, trendline support drawn off the November-December lows, which crosses near 809.40 is the next downside target. If February renews this winter's rally, October's high crossing at 938.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 862.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 892.00. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 836.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 829.80.

March silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.943 are needed to confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. If March extends last month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 11.770. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.943. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 10.570.

March copper was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.89 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 173.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 162.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.89.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 10.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that March is poised to renew the rally off October's low in the near future. If March renews the rally off October's low, the September 29th gap crossing at 27.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 24.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March sugar closed slightly higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The low- range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.55 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target.

March cotton closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by November's high crossing at 48.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 51.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 46.86 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower in quiet trading overnight as the market awaits this morning's final production figure for 2008 and the projected carryout. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a pause or setback from recent highs is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.98 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33 1/2 then November's high crossing at 4.38 1/2 are the next upside targets. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.09. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.155. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.60 is the next upside target.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 17 3/4-cents at 6.51.

Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Friday ending a two-day correction off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.34 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.91 is the next upside target.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 15 3/4-cents at 6.80 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday and is poised to extend the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends December's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.97 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.38 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rally off December's low. Profit taking ahead of the release of this morning's supply-demand report tempered early gains and the low- range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 11.13 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.91 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.

March soybean meal was steady in late-overnight trading as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 311.10. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off

December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 334.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 35.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 38.04 is the next upside target.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed up $0.03 at $62.45.

February hogs posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.40 then November's high crossing at 67.10 are the next upside targets. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 64.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.85. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.76.

February bellies closed down $1.07 at $83.57.

February bellies closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.
February cattle closed down $0.05 at 83.10.

February cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 80.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.94 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above this week's high crossing at 89.10 are needed to renew the rebound off December's low.
March feeder cattle closed higher $0.42 at $92.67.

March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.50. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 101.20 is the next upside target.

By INO.com

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