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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 13th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 13, 2009 - 01:23 PM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends Monday's decline below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1156.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1231.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


The March NASDAQ 100 was down 13.25 pts. at 1092.75 as of 5:48 AM CST. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1217.16. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1231.67. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1186.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.25. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 853.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 915.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 889.61. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 899.62. First support is the overnight low crossing at 856.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 853.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 9.00 pts. at 859.10 as of 5:50 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-12. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 131-23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 130-01.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 35.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.65 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.65. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47. First support is the overnight low crossing at 36.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 35.13.

February heating oil was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.41. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.41 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 185.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 166.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 185.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.41. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 127.84.

February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.03. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.03 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 124.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.03. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 90.00.

February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline, December's low crossing at 5.245, then psychological support crossing at 5.000 are the next downside targets. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.240 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally during January. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.728. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.752. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.370. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.245.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends the rebound off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 84.98 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.42 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 84.98. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 85.34. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 81.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.43.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at 130.680 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.060 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.179. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.060. First support is the overnight low crossing at 131.910. Second support is broken resistance crossing at 130.680.

The March British Pound was lower overnight and trading below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4786. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, December's low crossing at 1.4329 is the next downside target. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.4329 would renew the decline off December's high. If March renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.5544 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.4808. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4864. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.4567. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.4329.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9152 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9126. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9152. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .8872. Second support is the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.71. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 80.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.71. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.12. First support is the overnight low crossing at 81.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.85.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at .11492 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10962 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .11271. Second resistance is December's high crossing at .11492. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11051. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10962.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is poised to test the November-December uptrend line crossing near 811.20. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would confirm a trend change while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of December's low crossing at 741.20. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 854.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 853.60. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 854.70. First support is the overnight low crossing at 814.00. Second support is the November- December uptrend line crossing near 811.20.

March silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.105 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.135 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.944. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.137. First support is the overnight low crossing at 10.525. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.105.

March copper was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.03 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 173.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 162.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 141.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.03.

FOOD & FIBER
SOFTS: March sugar closed down 59 points at 11.46 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh two-week low today. Bearish "outside markets"--sharply lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar--did pressure the market today. Bulls also faded technically today.

March coffee closed down 235 points at 114.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today amid bearish "outside markets"--sharply lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. Coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

March cocoa closed down $84 at $2,501 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a fresh four-week low close today. Solid follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday would produce a bearish downside "breakout" from the sideways trading range at higher price levels on the daily bar chart and would also produce fresh chart damage. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was penetrated on the downside and negated today.

March cotton closed down 265 points at 46.67 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit-taking pressure and amid limit-down grains and bearish "outside markets"--lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. A five-week-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart was penetrated on the downside and negated today.

March orange juice closed down 305 points at $.7400. Prices closed near the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh downside momentum today.

March lumber futures closed down $6.50 at $174.50 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh contract low. Lumber bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $186.00.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn gapped down and was lower overnight due to spillover selling following Monday's limit down close. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.04 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's low crossing at 3.80 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.97 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.69 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.67 1/4.

March wheat was lower overnight due to spillover selling following Monday's huge decline and close below the 20-day moving average. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.58 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.07 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 56-cents at 5.95.

March Kansas City Wheat closed sharply lower on Monday following a bearish supply-demand report. Monday's decline also led to a close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.06 thereby confirming that the rally off December's low has ended. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.32 1/2 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 1/4-cents at 6.26 overnight.

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extended Monday's sharp decline and close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.42 1/4, which confirmed that the rally off December's low has ended. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight due to short covering as they consolidate some of Monday's limit down decline. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.86 1/4 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average would open the door for a larger-degree decline during January.

March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.50. The mid-range overnight close set the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 334.70 is the next upside target.

March soybean oil was steady in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.98. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.29 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 38.04 is the next upside target.

LIVESTOCK
February live cattle closed down $0.30 at $82.80 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh four-week low amid bearish "outside markets" that included limit-down grains, sharply lower crude oil prices, a weak stock market and a firmer U.S. dollar. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently to suggest a retest of the December contract low, or below, in the near term.

March feeder cattle closed up $0.57 at $93.25 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering was featured and gains were limited by weaker fat cattle futures prices today. Bulls have faded recently and need to show fresh power soon to prevent a potential retest of the December contract low.

February lean hogs closed down $1.00 at $61.45 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh two-week low today. Bearish "outside markets" including limit-down grains, lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar pressured hogs today. Hog bulls are fading and a retest of the recent contract low is likely.

February pork bellies closed up $0.92 at $84.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh four-week low early on. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

By INO.com

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