Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold Price Forecast 2009

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Jan 22, 2009 - 12:54 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy existing forecast for the Gold price trend during 2009 as of October 2008 has been for a volatile sideways trading range of between $930 and $700, subsequent price action has so far been in line with this. Therefore this analysis seeks to update the Gold Price expectations for 2009 in the light of "Quantative Easing" aka "Money Printing" as many gold investors are taking their cue from the recovery in gold stocks for much brighter prospects for gold to target a breakout to new highs during 2009.


TREND ANALYSIS - The rally from the October 681 low as expected failed to break above the previous peak of $936, peaking at $892, the subsequent price action has taken gold to a recent low of 800. The trend pattern continues to exhibit lower highs and lows which is a sign of weakness. Clearly gold needs to a. Make a higher low and b. Break the previous peak of $892 before the volatile but bearish sideways trend can change. Therefore the price pattern action still supports that of an overall trading range in the $920 to $700 region. The down sloping trendline continues to contain rallies, the first sign of positive developments would be for a break above this trendline.

PRICE TARGETS - There exists heavy support in the region of $725, and resistance in the area $870 to $930 which has had the tendency of suckering in weak money towards these support and resistance areas before each new swing in the opposite direction.

MACD - The MACD indicator has proved accurate so far in gauging gold price trend, current MACD suggests that there is more downside in the immediate future which targets a revisit to $800.

SEASONAL TREND - October to March is usually the strongest seasonal period for gold, current price action is inline with the seasonal tendency which suggests that if Gold is to break above resistance than the time to do that is in this period i.e. now. This therefore suggests gold could break above resistance in the coming weeks, to target $980, and thereby change the pattern for 2009 towards a range of $1000 to $800, rather than $920 to $720.

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - Elliot wave theory suggests a 5 wave decline to the October low, which implies the current rally is corrective and that the $681 low will likely be revisited.

Gold Forecast 2009 Conclusion

Gold Price Forecast 2009

The picture being painted by the above analysis is that of gold strength going into March that looks set to see gold break above resistance of $936, to target $960, however this strength will soon evaporate with gold again targeting a decline back below the breakout point to trade back below $850 by mid 2009.

Gold Forecast - March 2009 Targeting 960 high - 80% Confidence; Mid 2009 targeting a $820 Low - 75% Confidence

Chris Vermeulen presents excellent coverage of Gold trading by utilising ETF's in his commentary and newsletter.

This analysis forms part of my in-depth analysis and forecasts on a range of financial markets for 2009, to receive the complete forecasts to be published shortly in your email inbox subscribe to my always free newsletter .

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Paul
23 Jan 09, 10:48
Eliott wave counts are wrong

Wave four should not enter the territory of wave one unless it is a seven wave impulse pattern . Wave A should be designated as wave 6 .


Nadeem_Walayat
23 Jan 09, 11:11
No Elliott Wave Tennants
Theres the flaw in most ellioticians interpretation of EW. In that there ARE NO TENNANTS ! Markets Behave differently and you have to go with that behaviour rather than whats written in a book.
Ironically, something similar occured back in Jan 2007 i.e. to ignore EW tenants and go with the way the market actually behaves.
Gold Bull Market set to resume
Where the market behaviour elliott wave count confirmed a bull market from $627 to $920 that came to pass.

I guess we will find out if by the end of Feb / Start of March whether T-Bonds are closer to 120 or 150 as you state, I know which one I am betting on ;)
Regs
15 Mar 09, 17:19
Any thoughts on Gold f

Thinking of investing in gold - any thoughts or updates to your gold forecast beyound March 2009.

Enjoying your posts

Cheers

R


Sher
25 Mar 09, 06:19
Revised Forecast 2009

Your analysis is excellent. This is very valuable information about the Gold.

Do you have the latest revised forecast from March 2009 to Dec 2010. If yes, please send it to my email address.

Thanks!

MS


allen hardnaught
28 Mar 09, 17:34
gold forecast, 2009

In the 2 days following the announcement by the fed of QE, J P Morgan increased its short position on gold by 1.2 million ounces in order to cap the price.

With market manipulation like this I fail to understand why you guys indulge in TA, of whatever sort.

Far better to analyse JPM business model, adding into revenues the $2,2 trillion in bonds that it sold in excess of treasury authorisation, and trying to figure when the largest crime syndicate on the planet might go bust.

That is when in my opinion you will see gold, (and silver) revert to its true value.


Ron
04 Apr 09, 12:44
Gold forecast by Walayat

Does Mr. Walayat have an update from his January forecast?

Markets are so volatile, I would like to hear from up as to his current predictions.

Thanks.


Ron Smith
04 Apr 09, 12:45
Gold price forecast 2009

Does Mr. Walayat have an update to his bearish January forecast? A lot of things have happened since them and I would like to know what he predicts now.

Thank you


Nadeem_Walayat
04 Apr 09, 20:55
Gold forecast 2009

My focus over the last month has been on analysing and trading the stock indices, I do intend coming back to gold within a week or so.


Harry
22 Apr 09, 04:43
Gold focast last Q 2009

Would like to know your forcast for gold for last Quater 09 & what your views are on ETF's as apposed to mining companies or fisical gold. Regards Harry Lloyd


Paul
23 Apr 09, 07:13
Gold Update

Hi

A couple of weeks ago you stated your Gold update was pending but as far as I've seen there has been nothing published since. Am curious to know is there a specific reason you've held back on the analysis or is it just a time constraint issue?

Regards

Paul


Nadeem_Walayat
23 Apr 09, 07:14
Gold Update

Time

trading room upgrades knocked me out of market activity for a week.

Can't give a date as my schedule where articles are concerned is first the UK economy, then stocks then gold.

Best

NW.


sara
07 May 09, 04:55
gold price in 2010

i would like to know if gold price will increase in 2010 or not......i am planning to buy gold so can you advise which is the best time to buy it


muhammad sulman
18 Jun 09, 03:50
gold forecast

i have already purchased gold. can u advise me when i will sold my gold.and one thing more have u made any new forecast about gold. thanks.


jacob pronk
23 Aug 09, 15:56
gold update and $US update

would appreciate a $us dollar chart from januari 2008 to april 2010, also the same gold chart januari 2008 to april 2010, looking forward about your forcast, thank you, jacob.


Nadeem_Walayat
24 Aug 09, 01:53
usd dollar
See updated analysis - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12727.html


N V SRINIVAS
25 Aug 09, 02:45
Gold Prices from jan 2010

I am a bullion trader I want to know the position of Gold Price in 2010. Can I buy and hold.


Nadeem_Walayat
02 Nov 09, 00:46
Gold Bull Market Forecast 2009, 2010 Update
Gold has had a stellar run of late, which recently saw Gold pushing to new all time highs on a near daily basis which has galvanised wider mainstream press attention to the precious metal with many gold bugs revising targets ever higher into loftier goals such as $2000 and even $4000+. Gold is one of the most popular asset classes both sought after by readers and written about by market commentators, and one of the most emailed query as to when will I update my original gold analysis of 22nd January 2009 which concluded during mid 2009, therefore this analysis seeks to project the Gold Price trend well into 2010.

Gold Price Forecast 2009 Evaluation.

My original analysis for Gold as of 22nd January concluded with a gold price trend higher into March 2009 towards a target of $960 to be followed by a subsequent decline into mid 2009 as illustrated by the original forecast graph below.

Gold Price Forecast 2009

The Gold price forecast proved to be accurate in terms of the projected impulse waves. This analysis seeks to project Gold forward several months into 2010.

Fundamentals - Inflation Driving Gold?

The problem with this scenario is that the inflation of the 1980's and 1990's did NOT drive Gold higher, so clearly the mantra of Inflation driving gold higher is not correct, especially as we are presently emerged in debt deleveraging deflation, and neither does discounting future inflation expectations hold up, as the Gold bull market is now into its 10th year with a gain of 400% to date.

Gold Secular Bull Market

From 1980 to 1999 Gold fell for 20 years, eventually it would bottom and embark on a bull market, eventually, the signs for this would be not in fundamental data, but contained within the price chart as Gold breaks the pattern of corrective rallies followed by the downtrend resuming to new bear market lows. Now some 9 years later gold has corrected the preceding secular bear market by 50% in time and 100% in price. Therefore gold is not in a new bull market which has already contained many vicious bear markets within it as we witnessed last October, so just bare in mind that this is not a fresh young bull market, therefore much of the talk of waiting for public participation to join in can be discounted.

U.S. Dollar / Credit Crisis

My earlier analysis of a positive trend for the USD clearly implies given the inter market relationship between a two for a weaker trend for Gold. However the risk is that amidst the next phase of the global financial crisis as the bankrupt banks have far from recovered, the next stage of the banking crisis accompanied by recognised inflationary panic measures of money printing which devalues all fiat currencies could give a lift to gold.

Quantitative Easing aka Money Printing Hedging

We are in a new world (for the west anyway) and that is a world of Quantitative Easing, the more the governments of the world print money and monetize debt the easier it is for governments to keep printing and monetizing ever escalating amounts of government debt to cover the government budget deficit gap. What this means is collective currency devaluation where relatively speaking there appears to be little change but in real terms the flood of money has to be seen in rising commodity prices and other scarce resources, after all the supply of resources is mostly known and the population of the world is not decreasing so the demand is known to be on an upward curve. Therefore as long as the central bankers are embarked on the experiment of quantitative easing that should give a lift to gold and other commodities as it increases inflation expectations and therefore inflation hedging using gold and more liquid commodities such as crude oil.

Gold Technical Analysis

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - The elliott wave pattern implies we are a strong bull market that has much further to run, i.e. in Wave 4 of a larger Wave 2 advance. This also suggests that the immediate future should see further weakness in gold towards $1,000. However, this is just a correction in the trend that projects to a price of more than $1,100 by the end of this year, with the trend continuing into March 2010 toward $1,200 before a more serious correction takes place.

TREND ANALYSIS - Gold's breakout to a new all time high is a clear signal of further strong advances. The support trendline is at $1,000 and therefore fits in nicely with the elliott wave correction projection target. After the uptrend resumes this trendline is unlikely to be revisited until the second quarter of 2010.

SUPPORT / RESISTANCE - Resistance lies at the last high of $1071, Immediate support lies across the string of previous highs of $1033 and $1007, therefore there is very heavy support whilst very light resistance overhead, which again is suggestive of a mild correction in the current phase of the trend.

PRICE TARGETS - The measuring move off of the $681 2008 low projects all the way to $1,350, which looks set to be an achievable price during 2010. Nearer term immediate targets extend to $1,100 then $1,200.

MACD - The MACD indicator signaled a Gold breakout at $960, with a firm established uptrend. The current correction is inline with that of a mild correction within a strong uptrend.

SEASONAL TREND - There is a strong seasonal tendency for gold to rally from November through January i.e. for the next 3 months. This is suggestive that the current correction is living on borrowed time and may not last much longer

Gold Conclusion

I started off this analysis skeptical of the prospects for gold given the 10 year bull run to date, but the price that is talking off the charts is pretty bullish! enough for me to consider accumulating a position. In the immediate future Gold appears to be targeting a continuing correction towards $1,000, after which it targets $1,200 by March 2010 and a price of $1,350 later during 2010.

Gold Long-term - Gold has broken out to a new high and it does look as though it is going much higher in the long run, there are multiple measuring moves that one can consider, such as 133%, 150%, 1.618% etc. However given the gap in time between the all time peaks, Gold of $2000 plus would now not surprise me.

Gold Bull Market Inter market Implication - Bearish on the U.S. Dollar.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14692.html

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 400 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules