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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 23rd January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 23, 2009 - 06:57 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extended Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March renews this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1203.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1182.32. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1203.18. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1132.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1123.08.

The March NASDAQ 100 was down 21.50 pts. at 1150.00 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 788.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 870.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 842.73. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 870.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 797.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 788.40. The

March S&P 500 Index was down 16.40 pts. at 809.10 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as they consolidate some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-14 are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133-30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-14. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 129-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12.

ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 45.92. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 39.11. Second support is December's low crossing at 38.00.

March heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 154.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.69. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.

March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.98. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 127.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.72. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.84. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 106.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 94.25.

March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.356 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.862. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.356. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.447. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally and are trading above resistance marked by the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 86.99. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.11 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 88.37. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 85.49. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.60.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.601 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 131.019. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.601. First support is the overnight low crossing at 127.550. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 126.441.

The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3245 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4535 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4350. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4535. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3492. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.3245.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline and is challenging support marked by the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at .8555. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9043 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8834. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9043. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8555. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.76 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.76. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.30. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11060 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at .11496. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at .11500. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11190. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11060.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was sharply higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, December's high crossing at 892.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 840.60 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 881.30. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 892.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 853.30. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing near 840.70.

March silver was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 11.770 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 11.033 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 11.645. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 11.770. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.029. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.033.

March copper was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.48. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 125.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 147.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.48. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147.83. First support is the overnight low crossing at 137.30. Second support is December's low crossing at 125.50.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Thursday confirming yesterday's key reversal up and spiked above the previous reaction high crossing at 11.95. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 11.270 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.49. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at 26.16 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March sugar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.76 are needed to temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March cotton closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. If March extends today's rally, this month's high crossing at 50.90 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 50.90 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. Closes below last week's low crossing at 45.58 would renew this month's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 41.31 later this winter. Complimentary Report and CD Rom worth $85.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Overnight weakness was due to a stronger U.S. Dollar. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.07. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight due to a stronger U.S. Dollar. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.91 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If March extends Tuesday's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.38 is the next downside target.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 5.98.

Kansas City Wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 3/4 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 6.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.84 1/2 is the next downside target.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower overnight as they extend Thursday's decline but remain above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.98 3/4. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.24 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 9.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 321.50 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 292.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Overnight weakness was triggered by a decline in crude oil along with a stronger U.S. Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 32.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 35.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed up $0.05 at $65.40.

April hogs closed slightly higher on Thursday due to short covering. However, the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If April extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 64.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's gap crossing at 67.05. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.74. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 64.55. Second support is weekly support crossing at 64.37.

February bellies closed unchanged at $82.00.

February bellies closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
April cattle closed up $0.20 at 85.40.

April cattle closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 82.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
March feeder cattle closed up $0.95 at $92.30.

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, gap support crossing at 87.95 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 95.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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