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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 26th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 26, 2009 - 10:09 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1154.62. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1203.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1203.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1222.25. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1132.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1123.08. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 6.50 pts. at 1170.75 as of 5:54 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.


The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 62% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 815.75. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 788.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 869.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 838.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 869.65. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 797.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 788.40. The March S&P 500 Index was up 5.00 pts. at 828.50 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend last week's decline below the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133-16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-27. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 128-17. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12.

ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average signaling that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight rally, the previous reaction high crossing at 54.74 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 47.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 44.01. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 39.11.

March heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 154.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.69. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.

March unleaded gas was steady to higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 106.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 127.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.02. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.84. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 106.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 94.25.

March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.279 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.741. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.279. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.355. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 86.99. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.28 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 87.40. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 88.37. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.75. Second support is last Tuesday's gap crossing at 85.49.

The March Euro was lower overnight and are testing support marked by the 75% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 129.362. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.188 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.737. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.188. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 127.550. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 126.441.

The March British Pound was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3245 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4503 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4244. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4503. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.3492. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.3245.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline and is challenging support marked by the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at .8555. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9015 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8808. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9015. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8555. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.81 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.56. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 78.30. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11065 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at .11496. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at .11500. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11201. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11065.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, October's high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 848.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 910.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 857.30. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing near 848.00.

March silver was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 11.140 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12.120. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.146. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.140.

March copper was higher due to short covering overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.12. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 125.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 152.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 157.50. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 137.30. Second support is December's low crossing at 125.50.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Friday and above the previous reaction high crossing at 11.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 11.270 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at 26.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.12 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March sugar closed higher on Friday as it extended this month's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cotton closed higher on Friday and spiked to a new high for the year as it extended the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. If March extends today's rally, the 25% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 54.53 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 45.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range and is trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.07. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-
January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4.

March wheat was higher overnight due to spillover strength from corn and soybeans. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.38 is the next downside target.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 12 1/2-cents at 6.10 1/2.

Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.03 1/2 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.16 1/2 would temper the bearish outlook in the market. If March renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target.

March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends last Friday rally above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-
term low might be in or is near. If March extends the overnight rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.85 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6.24 1/2 would renew this month's decline.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.98 1/4. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.24 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 9.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. The high-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 321.50 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 292.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean oil was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 32.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 35.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed down $1.00 at $64.40.

April hogs gapped down and closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If April extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 60.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.28. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 67.05. First support is today's low crossing at 64.05. Second support is weekly support crossing at 60.63.

February bellies closed down $1.25 at $80.75.

February bellies closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline and tested December's low crossing at 79.30. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a double bottom with December's low might have been posted today. Closes below December's low crossing at 79.30 could prove to be a bear trap due to the oversold condition of the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

April cattle closed up $0.40 at 85.80.

April cattle closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 82.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

March feeder cattle closed up $0.45 at $92.75.

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, gap support crossing at 87.95 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 95.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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