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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 28th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 28, 2009 - 08:23 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and is trading above resistance marked by the 20- day moving average crossing at 1205.62. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1205.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target.


First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1216.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1222.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1178.52. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1132.00. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 29.50 pts. at 1215.00 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 834.74 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at 867.65 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 867.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 788.40 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 860.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 867.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 834.74. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 797.00. The March S&P 500 Index was up 18.70 pts. at 857.90 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Tuesday's rally but remain above the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12 is the next downside target. Trading could be subdued ahead of this afternoon's interest rate decision by the Fed. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132-25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-27. First support is Monday's low crossing at 128-14. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12.

ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 43.36. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the early-January high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 43.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.45. First support is the overnight low crossing at 41.21. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 39.11.

March heating oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 154.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.03. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.

March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 127.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 106.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 131.83. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 106.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 94.25.

March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.187 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.651. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.187. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.355. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline and is testing support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.54. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.54 are needed to confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.57. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 87.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 84.04.

The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.835. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.443 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 133.190. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.443. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.832. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 127.550.

The March British Pound was higher overnight due to short covering and is trading above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 1.4165. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4469 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3245 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.4320. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4469. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.3492. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.3245.

The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8955 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .8844. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8955. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8555. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally and is trading above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rebound into early-February. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 82.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.39. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 78.30.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near- term. If March renews this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11084 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .10964 would greatly increase the odds that last week's high marked a double top with December's high. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at .11496. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at .11500. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at .11109. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11084.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, October's high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 859.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 918.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 862.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing near 859.50.

March silver was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains but remains above broken resistance crossing at 11.770. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.282 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12.285. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.421. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.282.

March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 162.25 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 125.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 163.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 147.20. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 137.30.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.585 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 11.270 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above December's high thereby renewing the rally off last October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 28.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March sugar closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the August- October decline crossing at 13.14 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cotton closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking but not before posting a new high for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. If March extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 54.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 45.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.81 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, the mid-January low crossing at 3.58 3/4 then the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 are the next downside targets. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Tuesday's sell off, which carried over in the night session was triggered by a bearish shift in South America's weather forecast that has turned wetter for next week. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.81 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.92 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.73 1/2. Second support is the mid-January low crossing at 3.58 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 6.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.38 is the next downside target.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 6.15.

Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, December's high crossing at 6.70 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 5.79 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat was fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.54 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.85 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6.24 1/2 would confirm that a double top with the early-January high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early-February.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower overnight due to profit taking as they extend Tuesday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.91 3/4 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Additional selling pressure overnight was triggered by bearish weather forecasts, which call for increased chances for rain later this week in Argentina and dryer regions of southern Brazil. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.97 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 10.40 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.

March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 10-day moving average, which signaled that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 292.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 326.00 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.

March soybean oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 32.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 35.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed down $2.07 at $60.70.

April hogs gapped down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If April extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 60.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 62.65. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.01. First support is today's low crossing at 60.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at 60.08.

February bellies closed down $1.35 at $79.25.

February bellies closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline and below December's low crossing at 79.30. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but neutral hinting that a double bottom with December's low might have been posted. Closes below December's low crossing at 79.30 could prove to be a bear trap due to the oversold condition of the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

April cattle closed down $1.20 at 84.40.

April cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it renewed this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 82.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 87.53 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
March feeder cattle closed down $1.45 at $90.27.

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday and renewed this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, gap support crossing at 87.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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